Posted on 10/31/2007 2:19:28 PM PDT by Eric Blair 2084
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, of late, has been the subject of endless punditry among Republican insiders. Some insist he is the new dark horse who can grab the nomination while others contend that he’s an irrelevant creation of a bored press corps.
In truth, he is neither.
Despite the rave reviews for his debate performances and his crushing win over Mitt Romney in the straw poll of religious conservatives who actually attended the Family Research Council (FRC) Voter Values Summit, Mr. Huckabee is limited.
He has raised a fifth of what Ron Paul has collected. He lacks appeal in urban states, holds views which are antithetical to fiscal conservatives and lacks any foreign policy experience. His odds of actually capturing the nomination are roughly equivalent to the chance that Rudy Giuliani would get through a debate without using the phrase “when I was mayor of New York City.”
Yet it would be a mistake to ignore Mr. Huckabee. Even without winning, he’s likely to factor heavily in the primary, posing a threat in particular to the candidacies of Mr. Romney and Fred Thompson.
Polling in Iowa shows Mr. Huckabee’s stock rising after he placed a respectable second in the Ames Straw Poll. After his surprising showing at the FRC event, some state polling in Texas and in Georgia had him tied or ahead of Mr. Romney, while a recent Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll showed him leading Mr. Romney nationally among religious conservatives.
His plain-spoken appeal and social conservative credentials make him a viable alternative to Mr. Romney in Iowa and to Mr. Thompson in South Carolina. Neither state requires huge media buys and both have high concentrations of evangelical conservatives--the type of voter that embraced him at the FRC. Moreover, as the self-proclaimed David to these two Goliaths, Mr. Huckabee need not actually get more votes than his better known opponents to declare a moral victory.
By contrast, after inflating his lead in Iowa through incessant visits and enormous expenditures on paid ads, Mr. Romney has raised expectations which a close second place by Huckabee could easily undermine. Similarly, he could harm the Thompson bid simply by diminishing Mr. Thompson’s margin of victory in South Carolina.
But beyond all that, Mr. Huckabee is a walking, talking advertisement for his opponents’ flaws.
Mr. Romney’s elastic views and slick presentation seems that much worse to social conservatives next to Mr. Huckabee, a Baptist preacher whose fire-and-brimstone invocation of religious values makes the Romney message seem plastic and contrived.
And Mr. Thompson, he of the forgettable public appearances, lethargic schedule and distain for retail politics, suffers badly when compared to Mr. Huckabee’s considerable charm and energy. It often seems that Mr. Huckabee is the actor and Mr. Thompson the small-state governor.
Mr. Huckabee may not have the profile or resources to win the nomination, but he could do serious damage to two contenders who have yet to get their political acts together. In that regard, he may well live up to his hype.
Uh...it does not excite me. Both of them are seriously lacking. Neither can make up for what is lacking in the other.
I would rather glue my eyeballs shut and nail my feet to the floor before I would vote for either one of these schuysters.
Did you ever hear the story about the villager and his grandson who were traveling to a distant village, the moral of which is if you try to make everyone happy this is what happens?
It’s pretty funny.
I am not saying he is phony at all.
How else do you think I can take all of these trick or treaters. I got myself my own treat out of the fridge. :-)An ice cold beer.
The kids are trick or treating with the wife.
BTW, I didn’t ask that in an accusatory manner, I’m not a FredHead yet, but like the rest of us, I’m willing to hear him out and give him a chance to show me something and impress me.
My wife will be taking the kids trick or treating later. I will be sipping cold ones and giving out candy,
Just make sure you don’t accidentally hand the kids the Light Beer and drink the mini snickers bar.
To be perfectly honest with you, I have yet to be impressed by Fred. I’m really rooting for him. His policies are perfect and he says all the right things. Somebody in the campaign needs to spike his drinks with Red Bull.
If Duncan Hunter were to gather the attention and the glimmer of hope in polls that Huckabee has shown, I would send him some cash to help him catch hold.
Huckabee may make a bit of a splash in Iowa. Then he’ll become a historical footnote.
“Did you ever hear the story about the villager and his grandson who were traveling to a distant village, the moral of which is if you try to make everyone happy this is what happens?”
My dad used to tell me a similar story. Here is one version I found on the web:
Old Man, Boy and Donkey
An old man, a boy and a donkey were going to town. The boy rode on the donkey and the old man walked. As they went along they passed some people who remarked it was a shame the old man was walking and the boy was riding.
The man and boy thought maybe the critics were right, so they changed positions.
Later, they passed some people that remarked, “What a shame, he makes that little boy walk.” They then decided they both would walk!
Soon they passed some more people who thought they were stupid to walk when they had a decent donkey to ride. So, they both rode the donkey.
Now they passed some people that shamed them by saying how awful to put such a load on a poor donkey.
The boy and man said they were probably right, so they decided to carry the donkey.
As they crossed the bridge, they lost their grip on the animal and he fell into the river and drowned.
The moral of the story?
If you try to please everyone, you might as well... Kiss your [donkey] good-bye
That’s the one. I’ll type out the version I heard in a sec.
I’ve said before his main threat is to Fred Thompson.
What happened is that some of the social conservatives who were waiting for Fred to be the Great Conservative Hope got disappointed, and they are now looking around at what else is on the shelf. The Huckster surged since Sept as Thompson’s own surge sagged.
Huck deserves consideration ...
And then after consideration deserves to be quickly put back on the shelf. He’s not a fiscal conservative. A pro-life Democrat-on-most-issues doesnt cut it.
GW, my nightmare is that if Rudy gets the nod he will pick Huck as a VP. Thus making this the first GOP ticket in history to get no votes.
Socons won’t support a baby killer thrice married guy and the libertarians in the party like us won’t support a smoker banning, nanny state, serial tax raiser.
Mark my words, time and date. Duncan Hunter will be POTUS one day.
He needs some national exposure either as a VP or CA Governor.
He is an amnesty man also. He just stated on the Hugh Hewitt show that he supported the DREAM Act. He thinks that illegal alien minors should be given in state tuition and financial aid. He insisted that these innocent children should not be punished for the actions of their parents. The DREAM Act is a huge amnesty that will open the door for a complete amnesty followed by open borders and chaos.
The Huckster is now at the bottom of my list. Go Fred!
I really wish he could be VP under Fred for that very reason.
Of course Huckabee is for amnesty for illegals. He’s a religious left winger. Jesus was for amnesty too. He forgave a murderer on the cross. I think Jesus would forgive Julio and Miguel for sneaking over the US border.
If somebody would give Fred a damn diet Pepsi Max with ginseng, a Thompson/Hunter ticket would be great.
You are right, I cannot think of a more nauseating ticket. I hate a lib like Rudy, I also hate a nanny state fool like Hockerbee..uh...I mean Huckabee.
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