Posted on 10/31/2007 10:10:27 AM PDT by seanmerc
What if the current polls in Iowa are the final result?
What if Romney wins in Iowa and then comes in first again in New Hampshire? What if Giuliani stumbles badly in Iowa and finishes fourth? What if Huckabee surges and finishes second in Iowa? What if Fred Thompson makes an unimpressive third-place finish there?
And, on the Democratic side, what if Hillary only narrowly beats Obama in the first caucus state?
With two months to go before the Iowa caucus, everything can change, and probably will, but it is worth speculating on what the impact will be if things don’t change much from now until then.
On the Republican side, a Romney victory in Iowa would virtually guarantee a win in New Hampshire. The two states, in media terms, are practically one. Two-thirds of New Hampshire lives in the southern part of the state that watches Boston television every night. Since Romney served as governor in Massachusetts, he will probably win New Hampshire anyway. A win in Iowa would make it a fait accompli.
Two victories would make Romney the front-runner for the Republican nomination. Coupled with a Giuliani stumble in Iowa, it could totally change the dynamic of the Republican primary. Here’s what might happen:
Rudy could come to be seen as too antagonistic to the Christian right, and moderates might once again turn to McCain as the less inflammatory option, sidetracking the former New York mayor.
Huckabee, coming in a strong second, could take off and become the poor man’s Romney, taking advantage of his greater consistency on social issues, his Christian (read: non-Mormon) beliefs, and his support of the Fair Tax as an alternative to the IRS.
Republicans would likely panic about the idea of a Mormon candidate and worry about his prospects, making Huckabee and either Rudy or McCain viable as alternatives.
Thompson will be forced out, having lost his position as the socially conservative answer to Rudy.
Edwards, who had been leading in Iowa until recently, would probably have to leave the race. That would coalesce the entire ABH vote (Anybody But Hillary) around Obama, giving him a leg up in the national race.
Hillary’s vulnerability, newly revealed in the Iowa vote, could create a sense that she might not be electable given her baggage and lead Democratic voters to look seriously at Obama. The result could be a real slugfest between the two candidates, making a mockery of the idea that her nomination is inevitable.
And the outcome for Democrats?
Hillary probably still wins.
The history of Democratic primaries has always been that challengers emerge and run stronger than anyone believed they would but then fade and the front-runner prevails after all (see Bradley in 2000, Tsongas after New Hampshire and Brown after Connecticut in 1992, Gore after the Southern primaries in 1988, Hart in 1984 and Kennedy in 1980).
And among the Republicans?
Who knows?
The race would be thrown into chaos. Anyone could win.
Romney would have the momentum, but doubts about his ability to win as a Mormon would make his lead unstable. Huckabee would be gaining, but he may not be well enough known to make it. Giuliani could still recover, given his strong national standing, but would be hobbled. And McCain would still have his immigration position hanging over his head, but as Rudy falters, he might pick up the slack.
Then again, Hillary could open up a large lead in Iowa as her juggernaut gets going. And Rudy could, at least, finish a strong second to Romney in Iowa, and perhaps beat him, making it a Giuliani-Romney runoff in the main primaries, which Rudy probably wins. Then the general election match-up would be Hillary vs. Rudy, as we have all anticipated.
But what if?
Not only is Rudy’s nomination NOT inevitable, it’s not even possible.
Dick is mistaken... he said it would be hildebeast and Rice... silly Dick!
LLS
I guess he’s not on his toes the way he used to be.........;^}
No, really, tell us what you think!
Arr, arr, arr!
:-)
LLS
Hillary is no shoo in. Many in her party are angry with her concerning the so called “centrist” stance she appearing to take regarding the war in Iraq.
Looks like Dick Morris couldn’t get the job at the Huckabee campaign, so now he’s starting back at square 1. This is his way of attracting attention, in a way he’s interviewing for a campaign consultancy position.
One can hope.
HRC is not presently seeking to take charge of the Republican Party. That is the question before us right now.
Jeez it’s still only 2007 and I’m already sick of hearing from Dick Morris.
Dick is pimping for Rudy again.....like most of Fox.
I wouldn’t waste my vote on either one.
Unless something drastic happens (e.g. Hunter makes a spike in the polls) I’m going to consider moving to Canada in ‘08. At least they’re moving to the right.
Amnesty is the one most important issue of the day and yet for the Republican frontrunners, and yet we have Rudy “Sanctuary City” Giuliani, John “I invented comprehensive immigration reform” McCain, Mitt “I’ll say anything to get elected” Romney, Fred “Pay no attention to the MSM behind that curtain” Thompson, and Mike “Border enforcement is racist” Huckabee. Give me a freaking break!
I concur, I would be left at home.
I guess he’s not on his toes the way he used to be.........;^}
Those weren’t HIS toes...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.