“The first couple of primaries are going to surprise quite a few people, both in the MSM and here at FR is my guess.”
I think Fred will do well in Iowa, not so much in New Hampshire....but look out for the southern states.
I honestly can’t say how they will turn out, or ‘not turn out’ at this point. We’ve found too many push polls cited as ‘hard fact’ as well as the laughable ‘text polls’.
It depends entirely on how educated the primary voters are on the candidates track record.
We’ll know by the end of January, if not much sooner.
And I read that the Republican Party gives delegates to a given state not merely according to EV count but also allowing for the success of the Republican Party in the last election in that state. Which could mean that a candidate who wins most of the Red states would get a majority of the convention delegates without winning any blue state.