1. Romney up over 11 in the avg. but up 14 in the most recent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html
Rudy is #2 in the most recent.
NH: Romney up over 5 in the average, up 10 in the most recent. Rudy #2 in most recent.
http://www.anselm.edu/NR/rdonlyres/B9C20574-57F4-47E9-8207-42252C4FA767/11912/saintanselmcollegepoll102507data.pdf
SC: Rudy # 1 in average. Fred is #1 in most recent with Rudy #2.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html
FL: Rudy up 8 in avg., and even if you discount Quinnipiac (why?) which has him up 16, the previous poll had him up 10. Fred, McCain, and Mitt are essentially tied for #2.
Fihttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1112
Finally, MI: Romney up 5 avg. Rudy leads by 4 in most recent, and Mitt is #2 in most recent.
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/michigan_poll_101007.htm
Rudy leads in Nevada over Fred by 5; by 18 in CA over Mitt; by 8 in PA over Fred and Mitt; and by 30 in NJ.
We're talking delegates here and winning states. Where do you see Fred's delegates in any of these polls?
Many of the polls used by RCP in their averages should be discounted because of their poor methodology (and when has Quinnipiac ever been anywhere close to reality?). Rasmussen has a recent history of being most accurate and uses a tight "likely primary/caucus voter" screen.
We're talking delegates here and winning states. Where do you see Fred's delegates in any of these polls?
Iowa: 2nd, possibly 1st
South Carolina: 1st
Florida: 2nd, outside chance at 1st
New Hampshire: Anywhere from 2nd to 4th
Nevada: Polling is all over the board, no one has a clue what's going on
Michigan: 2nd or 3rd
California: 2nd, picking up a lot of conservative districts
Pennsylvania: 2nd
New Jersey: Winner-take all, none for Thompson barring complete Giuliani collapse
With that, I bid you adieu.
You may peruse an 'average' of polls of differing methodology and sample size all you wish.
If you're looking for accuracy, Rasmussen is the place to find it. If you want to massage whatever conventional wisdom you've bought into, you can look at the RCP average all day and see whatever you want.
Rasmussen is the only pollster who polls likely caucus/primary voters. Nobody else does.
Beyond that, you are so blinded by polls that you don't seem to be aware that polls are merely a snapshot in time and not graven in stone.
Fred Thompson has not run a single ad in Iowa, Florida, or SC yet.
There is still a lot of time left in this thing. Your 'look, this is reality' crap is really silly and will only serve to make you look foolish in the long run.
Take a step back, stop being so concerned about predicting things correctly. It is clouding your judgment and makes you say silly thinks like this:
We're talking delegates here and winning states. Where do you see Fred's delegates in any of these polls?
This is anyone's race. Even Huckabee could have something to say about it before it's over and done with. If you think there won't be a dynamic change one way or another in Iowa and NH before votes are cast, you're really being naive.