DOLLAR SKY IS FALLING! DOLLAR SKY IS FALLING! EVERYONE PANIC!

10/25/2007 | Philistone

[Philistone]

To read the MSM headlines (which I try not to) the falling dollar is the end of the world. Maybe Wall Street should get a Noble Prize for their work in "Global Dollar Cooling". But seriously, what are the effects of a weak dollar?

1) Increased exports. Last month's exports were among the highest on record. Trade deficit? What trade deficit? Boeing, Caterpiller, Microsoft, Apple, etc. all with surges in foreign export sales.

2) Outsourcing? What outsourcing? All of the sudden it becomes cheaper to employ an American technician than one from Bangalore.

3) Cost of living? (I love this part!) Since China has pegged the Yuan to the Dollar, everything we get from China costs exactly the same! Maybe this will convince them to unlink the Yuan. Then we'll REALLY see who's the best producer.

4) Buhh... buhh... buhh... but foreigners will stop buying American Treasuries! What? In order to buy Russian ones? Chinese ones? Venezualian ones? Give me a break.

A weak Dollar equals: more exports, more jobs, more tourists (spending money) and the same or higher standard of living.

Bring it on!

[Toddsterpatriot]

Better than a kick in the pants, but inflation is ticking up more than that. Is that what we’re seeing here, is foreign bondholders cashing out and chasing higher yields?

The 10 year bond currently yields 4.4%. If they were cashing out, yields would be much higher.

[Paul Ross]

The US imports 25% of its oil needs. That means that the remaing 75% comes from US oil producers

Wish you were right. But sadly, you're not. You're off by another 38.5% see the following excerpt from a recent Heritage Foundation report:

The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency

May 14, 2007
The National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency
by Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.

Heritage Lecture #1021 (Delivered March 22, 2007)

The United States is the largest oil importer in the world, bringing in 13.5 million barrels per day (mbd), which accounts for 63.5 percent of total U.S. daily consumption (20.6 mbd).[1] Oil from the Middle East--specifically, the Persian Gulf--accounts for 20 percent of U.S. oil imports, and this dependence is growing. By 2017, the U.S. will be importing approximately 68 percent of its oil needs. Oil consumption represents 40 percent of America's energy needs, primarily used in ground and air transportation. The dependence of the U.S. and the global economy on oil is growing, which can have dire consequences for the economic well-being of the United States, our national security, and the American way of life.

[Paul Ross]

But, it is a very good article, isn't it? :-)

True indeed, which is why I decided it was worthy, no matter its origin. It stood by itself. But there is a further aspect to it.

The analysis by Weller is founded on the same things which the apologists accept as axiomatically proper policy positions, even though they are coming from a different set of personal interests and agendas! They are not able to reject the analysis...without contradicting their own former enthusiasms and apologias.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Have you realized your error yet?

[Phsstpok]

Uh no, Soros was virulently anti-communist. During the late 80s and early 90s he dumped a ton of money into anti-commie programs.

That would be during the era of Perestroika.  It's arguable if he was acting against communism or against Gorbachev's version of communism. 

Which specific organizations he funded did you have in mind?

[Philistone]

My bad. I mixed up several numbers. The US imports 32% of its TOTAL ENERGY NEEDS (not total oil):

As the article correctly point out, 20% of our imported oil comes from the Middle East:

US Imports by country (top five - August '07 - '000 bbls/day):

CANADA 1,906
SAUDI ARABIA 1,468
MEXICO 1,381
NIGERIA 1,184
VENEZUELA 1,136

This is somewhat beside the point. The price of oil today is only partly based on the level of the dollar on world markets. Fear of a US attack on Iran and a Turkish invasion of Kurdish Iraq, Chavez's nationalization of Venezuelan oil production and continuing civil unrest in Migeria are playing a much greater role.

Still, the price of oil is below that of 1980, and the value of the dollar is above that of 1997.

Things will balance out. 65% of the world's currency reserves are dollars. Those countries do NOT want to see the value of those reserves evaporate.

[durasell]

I googled “soros fax machines” and found a bunch of stuff, including his own foundation and others. Remember, this was pre-internet.

I tend to believe his dislike for communism was real. That doesn’t mean he’s right in all of his views.

[Paul Ross]

Uh no, Soros was virulently anti-communist. During the late 80s and early 90s he dumped a ton of money into anti-commie programs.

We need to be very careful in accepting that at face value. I think there are reasons to doubt his sincerity in those efforts.

Look at his reasoning in his anti-American tirades. He is still a fully committed marxist from the tone and ideological memes he embraces. Check out Peter Meyers analysis here.

Conclusion: looks to me like he was in fact a mole, intended by the Soviets to allow them the inside information they needed to divert or thwart the U.S. efforts. And sure enough, what do we see today in Russia? The rise of the KGB police state, with its eyes on restoring the old empire...

You think that just happened?

Here is an interesting item from a few years back, where Soros cutting back on Russian operations

Soros opened his Open Society foundation branch in Moscow in 1987 with the aim of helping the Soviet Union make the transition to democracy. He said he had spent two-thirds of the approximately $1 billion he has invested in Russia supporting activities that are "normally supported either by central or local authorities," such as underwriting scientific research and initiating reforms in education.

"It is no longer appropriate for me to continue subsidizing the Russian state," Soros told a news conference in Moscow. "The economy is now recovering and the state is restored. And that is why I think it is right for us to conclude our activities in their present form."

Soros said he would reduce his investments in Russian projects from $25 million each year to $10 million beginning in 2004.

Russia was Soros' last stop on a tour of his foundation's offices in 10 countries spread across the Balkans, Caucasus, and Central Asia.

The Hungarian-born Soros emigrated to the U.K. in 1947 before settling in the U.S. in 1956. He made his billions on the stock exchange and later turned to philanthropic work.

The whole time-line fits in perfectly with the continuing Stalinist/KGB effort to "flood" the West with moles who would over the course of time filter upwards into influential positions...with a little surreptitious backing perhaps. Some seed money here and there, perhaps, to help someone with his "investment" portfolio...

If this guy was on the level "anti-communist"-wise...he would be trying to redouble his efforts to promote representivative government under the rule of law in Russia...and not retreating and lauding that the Russian "state" was restored....

[Paul Ross]

I tend to believe his dislike for communism was real.

Then he has a very funny way of showing it...see his real activities here...Marxist Subversion and Perversion

[Paul Ross]

The lesser fraction of oil as a percentage of the U.S.'s total energy consumption, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, etc. does not diminish in the slightest its key importance...or the negative implications of our dependence thereto.

Someday we can hope for converting our relative abundance of electrical generation capability into personal transportation energy.

BUT that still leaves a dependency gap: For major vehicles right now, there is still no effective substitute that will do as well. Not just cars, trucks, and ships but critically aircraft.

The Navy and Airforce do not get around without oil.

[Philistone]

I agree 100%. I think that you will agree with me that the LAST thing we want is another gov’t alternative fuels boondoggle.

Ethanol is more trouble than it’s worth.

From what I’ve read, oil from shale, tar sands and coal liquifaction becomes economically viable at sustained oil prices of $30-$50/bbl (if we can get the enviro-whackos to let us do it).

I think our biggest problem is that the moonbats really WANT us to return to a 19th century standard of living and will block ANY new energy alternatives (think wind farms off the Kennedy coast).

[Freedom4US]

$40 in 1980 dollars probably. We’re getting close.

[dollarbull]

The quote comes from the book, “The New Freedom”, 1926 by Woodrow Wilson.

The actual quote is:

A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is privately concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men ... [W]e have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated, governments in the civilized world—no longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and the duress of small groups of dominant men.

Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men’s views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.

[Fan of Fiat]

So he didn’t say “I have unwittingly ruined my country”. Thanks for proving my point.

[Fan of Fiat]

P.S. It is more than a little disingenuous to start a quote from page 185 of the book, use three dots, and continue the quote from page 201. Especially when the subject on page 201 (private credit) is different from the subject on page 185 (big government).

You then jump to page 13 as if there were no break at all.

Typical goldbug propaganda.

[dollarbull]

Who said I’m a goldbug. I’ve got my entire life savings in the $US.

[Fan of Fiat]

Because most people who post the quote “I have unwittingly ruined my country” are goldbugs... or just ignorant.

[dollarbull]

I didn’t post the “i ruined my country” quote (wilson didn’t say that). I posted what he actually said - which is more interesting than the erroneous quote.

[Fan of Fiat]

Yes I know. You responded to my challenging CRZ's post:

In 1913, a Senator, Nelson Aldrich, maternal grandfather to the Rockefellers, pushed the Federal Reserve Act through Congress just before Christmas when much of Congress was on vacation. When elected, Wilson passed the FED. Later, Wilson remorsefully replied, referring to the FED, “I have unwittingly ruined my country”. Now the banks financially back sympathetic candidates. Not surprisingly, most of these candidates are elected.

I'm still waiting for him to source his post. Or admit to his propaganda.

[Gen-X-Dad]

When you are dealing with people who are belligerent or acting like a troll you have to fight fire with fire. It is the only way to get through their filter. My only problem with my post is that I wasted my time trying to reason with him in the first place and should have done it earlier.