Posted on 10/25/2007 4:34:11 AM PDT by Renfield
Like undertakers complaining that a predicted flu epidemic failed to generate any business, the drive-by media and the hurricane forecasters are kicking themselves over the big nothing the 2007 hurricane season turned out to be. They know full well without the pain and suffering from these weather events: budgets may get cut and ratings tank. The depravity of it all is simply stunning.
2007 is the second year in a row after Katrina that hurricane forecasts have been completely wrong. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, forecast a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above normal Atlantic hurricane season.
The August update persisted with the wrong forecast, projecting an above average hurricane season.
NOAA based their prediction for an above-normal 2007 season on the combination of two main climate factors, what they describe generally as
"1.) the continuation of conditions that have been conducive to hurricanes since 1995 and
"2.) the continued La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection.
"In addition, temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea remain well above average (0.56oC).
"This combination of conditions is known to produce high levels of Atlantic hurricane activity." Now we know this combination of conditions sometimes produces high levels of hurricane activity and sometimes not. It appears that NOAA has no idea how to forecast the intensity of hurricane seasons months or even weeks ahead. In 2004 they predicted a 50% chance of above normal, 2005 70%. Not that much better than a coin flip.
NOAA's Atlantic Ocean Meteorological Laboratory has complied Accumulated Cyclone Energy indexes (ACE) since1851. ACE expresses the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons. ACE is calculated using an approximation of the energy of a tropical system over its lifetime. Energy levels are taken every six-hour period. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical activity in the season. It is the most useful measure of seasonal activity since it measures not only the number of storms but their intensity.
The graph below shows season ACE indexes for the last fifty years from 1947. While there has been wide variability, the linear trend line is nearly horizontal. As of October 24, the 2007 ACE index stood at 62. 2006 came in at 78 and 2005 at 248. From 1970 to 1994 the ACE index was below 100 in all but two years.
Data Source: NOAA Atlantic Ocean Laboratory, Graph: The Author
While the season doesn't officially end for another few weeks, the graph below shows that tropical events decrease drastically through October making it unlikely that there will be a spate of hurricanes to redeem their forecasts.
Source: Ryan Maue, Florida State University, Department of Meteorology
After Katrina, we were bombarded with baseless assertions that global warming was causing increased hurricane activity. As Rush Limbaugh predicted, for the first time in history, the Democrats and their friends in the drive by media politicized a natural disaster, successfully blaming President Bush for Katrina. In spite of this spin campaign, the citizens of Louisiana knew exactly where the blame should be, with Democrat Governor Kathleen Blanco and elected Republican Bobby Jindal.
It is possible that politicization of natural disasters by the Democrats might be influencing the the recent hurricane season forecasts. How else can they explain their rationale for issuing above average hurricane season predictions in 2006 and 2007,while predictions for 2004 and 2005 were mere coin flips. These forecast are far to important to be tainted by petty partisan politics. The President should appoint a commission to investigate political influence of these predictions. He needs to get NOAA personnel under oath and ask them what factors they use to make these predictions.
The Democrats and the media should end their politicization of natural disasters. This is counter-productive and dangerous. Is this too much to ask?
My prediction: if there is a fall hurricane on the east coast, it will hit NC between the 11th and the 17th of November. Mrs. JimRed and I will be spending that week on the Outer Banks.
If it hits, blame me and berate me soundly!
Old news here. The Dems have already moved on to the wilfires in Kali. Maybe earthquakes or volcanoes will be the GW poster boy in the future but only if there’s plenty of good visuals to go along with it. /s/
all those Home Depot sponsored “you are doooooomed” weather spots were a waste sort of. they did get people to do panic buying.
Why can’t the Repubs hold hearings on the truth about global warming???? And how bogus it is????
Why, that's easy! Because the MSM would instantly point out how the "hearings" were unofficial, trumped-up, phony charades, conducted in some basement store-room, and carrying no weight whatsoever. They would explain that the Republicans were by these sham hearings demonstrating their desperate need to get a little attention from the press, and would proceed to laugh themselves silly at the spectacle.
Note that none of these things happened when the Democrats pulled the stunt you suggested. When they did it, their mock hearings were reported as examples of how the minority party, feisty and principled, was looking into things that needed examining even though the tyrannical and corrupt majority party censored their efforts and fought them every step of the way.
The Republicans know they'd never get away with this, not in a million years, and that it would therefore not be worth the effort.
It was interesting to watch as storms got named this year that in the past would never have been mentioned. They were really trying to get the number of named storms to match the prediction.
Don't dispair they have the Burning of California to keep the of Merchants of Doom, as well as Hillery, Reid, Pelosi, Durbin, Biden, Schumer seem to be right at home finding a way to promote the Party of defeat!
Hurricane season ends November 30. Or is it different for the Bahamas?
NWS forecast for Texas (spring and summer) drier and warmer than average WRONG!
NWS forecast for Texas (fall and winter) drier and warmer than average.
?????????????
Due to the lack of hurricanes this season, the GW acolytes have suggested that the hurricane season be extended to Dec 1 in order to allow more time.........
Their desperation was evident when early on in the season they began to give names to tropical depressions because there simply where no tropical storms developing they could name.
No, it’s the same...I use Nov. 1st just for my ownself being the eternal optimist that I am (smile)
Cheers
LOL...you’re right. Living everyday close to nature on a sailboat is proof enough for me that Mother Nature is in control of the situation and there’s diddly squat we can do to change that. The GW crowd is in it for the $ and more control over the little people.
Cheers
***Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center..... forecast a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above normal Atlantic hurricane season.***
Wasn’t it found out a few years ago that they make virtually the SAME prediction every year?
I am a met, and I am bored. Hey, NHC??? Cant you sendme some of those predicted hurricanes???? I wanna play.
Will be interesting to see how they “turn it around” and say that global warming is responsible for the lack of hurricanes and that this lack of hurricanes is very BAD for those in the U.S. who need rain.
We here in Ga. actually DO depend on hurricanes to bring some rain.
I think all weather is cyclical.
They blossomed just at landfall in most of those cases, and at night for many.
Noel is totally disorganized but is making a lot of rain.
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