Huckabee: The GOP's Best Bet?

Newsweek ^ | 10/22/2007 | Jonathan Alter

[dano1]

The GOP is in a deep hole and keeps digging. Even after Mike Huckabee won big among attendees at last week's "Values Voters Convention," many evangelicals have been telling the former Arkansas governor—and onetime Baptist minister—that they like him but won't back him because he can't beat Hillary Clinton. They have it exactly backward. He may be the only Republican candidate with a decent chance to beat the Democrats next November.

Huckabee? Yes, Huckabee.

To explain why, let's look at the shortcomings of the other Republican candidates first.

Rudy Giuliani's performance so far has turned the conventional wisdom about him on its head. It was assumed early on that he couldn't win the GOP nomination because of his position on social issues like abortion, gun control and gay rights, but that if he did his moderation would power him to victory in the general election. Now it looks as though he's got a strong chance for the nomination—despite his GOP rivals' best efforts to hammer him for being insufficiently conservative during Sunday night's debate—but would likely fail in November.

While Giuliani appears strong in his native Northeast, his recent pandering to the conservative base will make it hard for him to put states like New York and New Jersey in play. As Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania told Chris Matthews on "Hardball" last week, Giuliani's right-wing positions on Iraq, S-CHIP and the need for anti-abortion Supreme Court justices are all deeply unpopular in Blue States and would be hung around his neck next fall. Meanwhile, a pro-life third-party effort (a greater likelihood whenever Republicans nominate a pro-choice candidate for any major office) would strip away a few crucial points in key states. At a minimum, pro-lifers would stay home.

Most important, Giuliani is a dark candidate running on fear. Americans like light candidates running on hope. Since 1928 the United States has only once elected the darker candidate, Richard Nixon in 1968. But circumstances were quite different then. The unpopular war that year was a problem for the Democratic nominee, Hubert Humphrey—whose "politics of joy" sounded lame in that crazy season. Nixon tried to lighten up in 1968 with the "new Nixon" (just as Giuliani is trying to smile more this year), but his victory and reelection in 1972 were triumphs of the dark side.

This time, Rudy would be forced into the Humphrey role, saddled with the incumbent president's baggage. Running in full-throated support of George Bush's war with Iraq (much less Iran) is not likely to be a crowd-pleaser. And his claim to possess greater experience than his rivals will likely fall flat, considering that no one has ever made it from city hall to the White House without serving in some other office in between. Six long years after 9/11, Rudy's "only thing we have to use is fear itself" strategy will work only if we're attacked again by terrorists. (In that case, of course, all bets are off.)

Mitt Romney at first seemed the most Reaganesque character in the Republican field. But he is running a transparently cynical campaign. (Cynicism can bring success, but only if you can't see it). His flip-flopping is so egregious he makes John Kerry seem like a paragon of principle, and the Democrats now have the money and discipline to exploit the opening. Romney, born in privilege and cosseted throughout his life by his church and corporate America, has no common touch. And his Mormonism would hurt him in some quarters in a general election.

Fred Thompson is not ready for prime time. Unless he gets real good real fast, he would be crushed by any Democrat. He made strides Sunday night—but he's not there yet.

John McCain would do better than the other three, but even if he somehow gets the nomination, he feels a bit like Bob Dole in 1996: an amusing war hero with a good heart and lots of friends in the press who is well past his sell-by date and gets pummeled by a Clinton.

That leaves Huckabee, whose shortage of funds will probably prevent him from being nominated. The schedule is so front-loaded this time that even an impressive showing on January 3 in Iowa (and he's running second there in some recent polls) won't bring him enough money to be fully competitive on Tsunami Tuesday, February 5. And many Republicans have gotten into the habit of viewing lack of money as a character flaw. His only hope is that party leaders come to their senses and recognize that he's their best bet.

Huckabee comes across more hopeful than Giuliani, more believable than Romney, more intelligent than Thompson and fresher than McCain. He would hold the base and capture moderates drawn to his down-home style. His greatest asset is that he alone among the Republicans "speaks American." He connects to his audience with stories and metaphors and a geniality that can't be faked. "I'm conservative but I'm not angry about it," he likes to say, and it's true; his gentle mocking of the intraparty warfare that broke out during the Fox debate—likening it to a "demolition derby"—confirms the point. This was Reagan's secret, and it worked for Huckabee in Arkansas, where he won the votes of independents and Democrats.

The rap on Huckabee is that while he can speak fluently on global affairs, he has no foreign-policy chops. But that might be an advantage in November. Because he lacks Washington experience, Huckabee is the GOP candidate least tied to Iraq, which will remain an albatross for any Republican. And unless you believe 9/11 "changed everything" for American voters (if so, how do you explain 2006?), this election may revert to the norm, which means an emphasis on pocketbook issues. In the Detroit debate on the economy earlier this month, only Huckabee spoke with any passion about the millions of voters left out of the economic expansion. It's trendy now for Republicans to talk about their fiscal principles, but belt-tightening and fealty to Wall Street have never won a presidential election.

Voters in general elections are less ideological than in primaries and more intrigued by a compelling personal narrative. Huckabee's story hits closer to home than any other. After chest pains and a diagnosis of diabetes, he lost more than 100 pounds with diet and exercise. He tells the story with wit and grace (as well as the one about his wife's cancer diagnosis many years ago) and would kill on Oprah. When Huckabee talks about broader health-care issues he does more than brag about Arkansas's success under his leadership. He speaks in a folksy and comprehensible way that would match up well against Hillary's facts and figures or Obama's abstractions. The same holds true on education; his support for large-scale federal support of art and music programs to improve creativity (and thus competitiveness in the global economy) would resonate with millions of voters.

Even on faith and politics, Mike is easy to like. From afar he seemed extreme because he raised his hand in a debate when the candidates were asked en masse if they believed in evolution. But when Bill Maher pressed him to justify that view on his HBO show, Huckabee responded with a nuanced and presentable discussion of the origins of the universe that seemed to pacify even the atheist host. (I found this as well when we discussed the subject some months ago.) He has surely said some wacky right-wing things that could be used against him, but no more than any of the others in the Republican field. (He said in the debate that "most" of the signers of the Declaration of Independence were clergymen; only a couple were.)

The stridency of today's GOP has blinded the party to the context of this election, which is Bush fatigue. No wonder all the Democrats are using some variation of the line "The era of cowboy diplomacy is over." It is. And the least cowboyish and bombastic Republican will have the best chance a year from now to win the White House. That's Mike Huckabee.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

He seems to be a very good man with great morals, convictions, experience and talent.

Don't fall for it. The MSM is exploiting Huckabee to take down Fred and Romney, which will throw the nomination to Giuliani.

Huckabee is being played like a fiddle and he doesn't even realize it.

[Plutarch]

...and when he got down past the 100 lb. mark, he didn't look a lot better than death warmed over. Like he wasn't getting any nutrients, or something...but there's no doubt in my mind that he had his stomach stapled.

I think so too, every aspect of his weight loss points to bariatric surgery. When he is forced to admit this, he will be reviled as the country's worse example of a preachy hypocrite. All this talk of diet and exercise will be flung back at him with contemptuous fury. Huckabee should get nowhere near the GOP ticket until it is absolutely proven his weight loss was not surgical.

[BnBlFlag]

Huck is a busybody who is also an “open borders” type. No way!

[Travelgirl]

When White was elected Governor of ARK and defeated bill clinton.

[spectre]

Thank you. He's still tap dancing..

But I am well aware of the Hucksters empathy toward the Illegals living and working in this country.

I didn't listen to Bush very carefully. I won't make that same mistake again.

sw

[BillyBoy]

>> pro-life, pro-second amendment and ______ (please fill in the blank) ?????????????????? What else exactly? <<

Okay. Huckabee is:

*Pro-Life, more-so than ANY of the "front runners"

*Pro-Second Amendment, more-so than any of the front runners except Fred

========================================

AND HE IS ALSO:

*Pro-Tax Reform, including abolishing the IRS and current tax code, replacing them with FairTax, more-so than ANY of the "front runners"

*Pro-Traditional Family & Marriage protection, more-so than ANY of the "front runners" INCLUDING Fred.

*Pro- capital punishment against heinous crimes

*Pro- Education reform, Huckabee stood up to the teachers' union and got the Fair Dismissal Law passed , which allowed us to terminate poorly performing teachers, and is a strong supporter of local control and for school vochers

Pro-energy Independence and ANWR drilling

*Pro-Balanced Budget, cut taxes and fees almost 100 times in Arkansas, saving the taxpayers almost $380 million. Left a surplus of nearly $850 million. Was praised by freepers in 2005 by coming up with the "Tax Me More" name to mock liberals efforts to "tax the rich". (But now we're supposed to believe the Huckster was a nanny-state RINO even though he called "freeper governor" back when he was actually IN office)

* Pro-soviegnity, anti-Red China, anti-Cuba, anti-UN, and denounced the L.O.S.T. treaty more-so than ANY of the "front runners"

* Pro-WOT , including strong support for the troop surge and the continued operation of the Guantanamo Bay detention camp.

*Pro- Victory in Iraq , unlike Ron Paul

*Pro-Israel, MUCH more so than the current administration (Huckster strongly OPPOSES building a Palestinian state within Israel by carving out pieces of existing Israeli land)

*Pro- religious freedom & faith-based policies , moreso than ANY of the "front runners", including support of charter schools, and allowing the displaying of the Ten Commandments in public places.

*Pro-buisness, he has said that Wal-Mart is the case study in the genius of the American marketplace.

* Pro-Border Fence & ANTI-amnesty proposal, despite his past views (Fred Thompson was ALSO pro-amnesty in the past and now claims to be against it, but according to some freepers, it's OKAY when HE flip-flops but not when anyone else does it)

*Pro- line item veto

*Pro-intelligent design (making him to the right of me on this issue)

* Longtime supporter of Free Republic and named the only "freeper governor" in the nation in 2005, he was personally invited by Jim Robinson himself to play at the FR inaugural ball in 2004 and wrote a personal thank you note to Free Republic. Huckabee's ties to FR rival any candidate, perhaps even Duncan Hunter's support of the forum.

[BillyBoy]

Freepers DON'T like Huckabee because of his "liberal" record as Governor? Hmmm.

===================================================================

Once Again, a Little Rock From Arkansas [Gov Huckabee and the FR Inaugural Ball]
Washington Post ^ | Sunday, January 16, 2005 | Richard Leiby
Posted on 01/17/2005 4:10:05 PM CST by Jim Robinson
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/13226841322684/posts

He’s a Preacher! He’s From Hope! (Gov. Huckabee, Free Republic W2 Inaugural Ball article)
Washingtonian Online - Capital Comment ^ | January 2005 | SUZI PARKER
Posted on 01/02/2005 9:02:42 PM CST by tgslTakoma
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/13127031322684/posts

ANNOUNCING THE FREE REPUBLIC W2 INAUGURAL BALL, FEATURING GOV HUCKABEE AND CAPITOL OFFENSE
Free Republic W2 Inaugural Ball ^
Posted on 01/18/2005 1:18:17 PM CST by Jim Robinson. [history]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/12922461322684/posts

Freeper Governor Huckabee's "Tax Me More Fund" tops $1,000 with $200 donation
Arkansas Democrat-Gazette ^ | 5JAN 01 | BILL SIMMONS
Posted on 01/05/2002 1:06:07 PM CST by DCBryan1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/6023051322684/posts

Arkansas - Freeper Governor Mike Huckabee reelected
Associated Press | November 5, 2002
Posted on 11/06/2002 12:29:32 AM CST by HAL9000
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/7833091322684/posts

Freeper Gov. Huckabee (R-Arkansas) wins Arkansas Republican primary 85% +
www.kark.com ^ | 21 MAY 02 | DCBryan1
Posted on 05/21/2002 10:41:42 PM CDT by DCBryan1
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/6873641322684/posts

FR Inaugural Ball Pictures for ***Governor Huckabee***
Source: Self (with nudging from CAL)
Posted on 01/28/2001 21:04:24 PST by Gracey
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a74f9d80c0e.htm

Huckabee's Knees Need Surgeries After Freeper Inaugural Ball
INAUGURAL BALL, DANCING
Source: Donrey News
Posted on 01/22/2001 23:52:23 PST by HAL9000
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a6d38370b7d.htm

FREEPER INAUGURAL BALL MESSAGE TO FREEPERS FROM ***GOVERNOR MIKE HUCKABEE***
Source: e-mail
Published: 1/22/01 Author: Governor Mike Huckabee
Posted on 01/22/2001 18:32:01 PST by Clinton's a liar
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a6ced21441d.htm

Arkansas Gov. Huckabee’s ‘Tax Me More Fund’ Spreads
News Max ^ | Jan. 23, 2002 | Dave Eberhart
Posted on 01/22/2002 9:19:46 PM CST by concerned about politics
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/6137661322684/posts

Freeper Governor Mike Huckabee on the 'Tax Me More' Fund
Governor's Electronic Message System (GEMS) ^ | December 4, 2001 | Governor Mike Huckabee -- Arkansas
Posted on 12/04/2001 12:19:43 PM CST by Sloth
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/5835691322684/posts

Gov. Huckabee's thank you letter to Free Republic
Source: Personal letter from Governor Huckabee
Posted on 02/28/2001 07:05:41 PST by Taxman
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a9d13c55b87

=====================================================================

Click on those threads and you'll see Governor Huckabee working hand-and-hand with FR and members having nothing but praise and support that Huckabee was such a good friend of our forum. He was utterly worshipped here for mocking liberal beliefs that people don't mind being taxed into obivion by coming up with the name "Tax Me More" fund. He was even given the nickname "the freeper Governor" as an honor for being the only Governor in the nation to be actively involved with FR. This was 2005, the Huckster had already been Governor of Arkansas for NINE YEARS at the time.

Amazing how NOBODY on this forum pointed out what an awful, evil, RINO, nanny-state, illegal alien loving, Clintonite governor he was when the guy was actually IN office, eh? You'd think with such a horrid RINOish record, JimRob wouldn't want him anywhere near our event. After all, some on this forum are now saying they wouldn't even vote for him over the Hilderbeast.

Lots of retconning going on here on FR.
=================================================================

2005:
"Huckabee’s eight-member group, Capitol Offense, is the only band with a sitting governor as leader. It will play at an inaugural ball hosted by the Web site Free Republic."

If you had a problem with FreeRepublic hiring an alleged "liberal, RINO, nanny-state, illegal-alien loving, Clintonite governor" as the honored guest of the night, you should have taken it up with the owner back then.

In 2005, Huckabee already had a LONG, LONG paper-trail as Governor and received nothing but PRAISE and APPLAUSE from freepers as a great conservative Governor.

Your retroconning history two years later to make him out as their horrific RINO notwithstanding.

[Eric Blair 2084]

You forgot the concert that Huckabee played for Jesus and guests at the feast of Galilee in 0032.

[BillyBoy]

>> You forgot the concert that Huckabee played for Jesus and guests at the feast of Galilee in 0032. <<

What the hell?

You ask for "proof" of what conservative positions Huckabee holds besides pro-life and pro-gun positions and I give them to you. Just because you'd like to maintain your fantasy that he's liberal on everything else doesn't make it so. If you like that fantasy so much, stop asking about reality because you won't like what you'll hear.

You rant and rave that he had this awful record as Governor and I show you proof he received nothing but praise and love from members of this very forum and was invited as our special guest at an inagural ball, and you respond with some incoherant swipe saying Huckabee must have played for Jesus too. Are you saying I made it all up?

FACT: Huckabee holds conservative positions on dozens of issues, not just guns and abortion. Liberals wouldn't be caught dead supporting Huckabee's beliefs on gays, Iraq, etc.

FACT: Huckabee was beloved by FR when he was actually IN office. Huckabee was personally invited by the owner of THIS website to be our honored guest in 2005 and was extremely well received. You may have not been on FR at the time but if you were you'd know that's what happened. Photos don't lie.

If you don't like the FACT that Huckabee's was beloved by FR in 2005 after nine years of his "liberal" policies, take it up with the management and members here.

[spectre]

Don't fall for it. The MSM is exploiting Huckabee to take down Fred and Romney, which will throw the nomination to Giuliani.

Huckabee is being played like a fiddle and he doesn't even realize it.

Case in point. This morning he was interviewed by Blitzer, CNN. Mike wasn't asked even ONE question about immigration, legal or otherwise.

I found that very interesting, since that is one of Huckabee's weaknesses.

sw

[Eric Blair 2084]

There are 4 distinct factions who strongly oppose Huckabee. You know who they are. He knows who they are. He can’t run from his record and past words and actions. No matter how nice of a guy he is, those people won’t support him because of his political policies. It’s nothing personal.

[unspun]

Good points — score those points for Huckabee.

[miliantnutcase]

Hillary would massacre Huckey that’s why they want him.