Posted on 10/19/2007 3:48:29 PM PDT by CounterCounterCulture
October 19, 2007
Des Moines, IA — In what he called "a major abuse of the electoral process," former Reagan administration diplomat and long-time national conservative activist Alan Keyes has been blocked by the Florida GOP from participating in Sunday's Fox News presidential debate in Orlando.
The Florida party used a 1% or better showing in polls from three of six polling firms as their criterion for inclusion in the event, even though none of the selected polling firms included Keyes, the latest entry in the presidential race, in any of their statewide surveys to date.
However, had Keyes been included in these polls, objective observers — including staff of some of the polling firms in question — agreed, based on past electoral performance in Florida, and on current polling that is taking place in other states, that he would have received a percentage meeting or exceeding the threshold.
In 2000, in the last contested GOP presidential primary, 32,354 — or nearly five percent — of Florida Republicans, and about one million voters nationwide, cast their vote for Keyes. He was included in the Values Voter Debate in Fort Lauderdale last month, after only three days in the race. In the post-debate straw poll, Keyes surpassed all the other candidates in the GOP field except Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.
The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll, the most-recognized media measure in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, was released during the time period in question, showing Keyes at 2% after only two weeks in the race, equaling or surpassing several long-time GOP candidates, all of whom received invitations to the Orlando debate.
When asked about his exclusion from Sunday's debate on the Adam McMannus radio program Wednesday, Ambassador Keyes said, "Rather than thinking about what they should be doing to make sure that voters are informed and able to get a clear idea of the choices available to them, [some party officials] are doing their best, I think, to make sure that articulation of the kind of conservatism that corresponds to what is on the heart and mind of most grassroots Republicans is not there."
In later comments, Keyes asked, "Why such an effort to assure that the so-called top-tier candidates don't have to face me? Do they fear me because they're not good enough for the job that needs to be done, or because they don't represent the conscience and heart of the Republican Party or of the American people?"
To register your opinion concerning Dr. Keyes' exclusion from this debate, call the Florida Republican Party and Chairman Jim Greer at 850-222-7920, send a fax to 850-681-2063, or email the party using the form at www.rpof.org/contact.php
You can learn more about Alan Keyes at www.AlanKeyes.com
I’m gonna compare what they SAY tonight with what they actually DID in recent history.
>> Please explain why Paul has won most straw polls and Internet polls but somehow continually places at the bottom in traditional polls?
Because the polling sample in internet polls and straw polls are not randomized or representative. A relatively small number of Paul supporters, who are unquestionably enthusiastic, can flood internet and straw polls and skew the results.
>> Also explain why there is always a large percentage that vote “undecided” in these polls.
Because they answer “undecided”. Ron Paul’s name was a given choice - and they still answered “undecided”.
>> I don’t know what polls you’re looking at, but Paul’s name (and the same for Hunter & Tancredo) isn’t even on these polls.
Earlier in this thread I gave Paul’s numbers in a half-dozen different scientific polls. His name is on the questionnaire (otherwise they wouldn’t have had results to give).
>> The big polling firms such as Gallup & the networks/newspapers only poll registered or likely voters.
They do so, not by only calling those voters, but by polling all people they call as to whether they’re likely to vote in the primary. Like I said, my father was polled by Rasmussen a couple of weeks ago ... their first question was “How likely are you to vote in the primary election?” ... “Very Likely, Likely, Not likely, very unlikely”. That is how they determine “likely voters”. I see no reason to think Paul supporters are answering that they’re not likely to vote.
>> Paul’s supporters are affluent yuppies and suburban types who only use their cellphones. So the poll results are flawed to the point of inaccuracy.
You’ve shown no evidence to support either of these sentences. You’re making this stuff up in the hopes that you can discredit scientific polling that is showing Ron Paul making little headway in communicating to the public. Most of the Paul supporters I’ve run into are wacko college kids - not yuppie suburbanites. And, I’m a suburban voter - I know quite a few yuppie suburban people.
>> “About 13 percent of all households in the country have “cut the telephone cord” in favor of cell phones, according to federal figures released last month. That puts this group out of reach of traditional surveys that rely heavily on calls to standard landline phones.”
... blah, blah, blah. None of this says anything to support the contention that the inability to reach cellular phones in polling would have a particularly detrimental effect on Ron Paul ... which, incidentally, is the contention that I called a “wild-ass guess”. I know polling companies can’t call cell phones ... I just don’t see where that would hurt Ron Paul any more than any other candidate.
>> Can statisticians determine why one set of polls wrong but the other is right?
Yes.
>> You would get a more accurate poll if more people participated in an open internet poll rather than a poll that calls people and half the time get hung up on or doesn’t get an answer.
Nonsense.
>> So that $5.3 million Paul raised last quarter? The volunteers donating their time and money to Paul?
Paul’s fundraising was impressive for a bottom-tier candidate ... but lets put this into perspective. Thompson raised more than DOUBLE that ($12.7M), Giuliani doubled that ($11.6M), Romney had almost doubled that ($9.9M). Hell - John McCain ($5.7M) raised more money than Paul ... and nobody in their right mind considers McCain a “frontrunner”.
Those are frontrunners. Those are “volunteers donating their time and money”. Ron Paul’s $5.3M was impressive because it was unexpected ... but he’s still trailing the actual frontrunners by a HUGE margin.
>> (The other GOP candidates do not have this type of grassroots support)
Apparently they do. They’ve outraised Paul. They’re outpolling Paul. Their support is dwarfing Paul’s.
>> So how is Paul staying in the race then?
He’s spending less than he’s bringing in. He’ll be around for the long haul (possibly to prepare for a 3rd party bid) ... but his support is statistically insignificant for the GOP Primary.
H
I completely forgot about him and did not even think about him during the debate. That seems wrong somehow. lol.
Yes, it was a disaster, but he didn’t help himself in my opinion. He made a terrible situation worse. He didn’t need to ‘move’ to Illinois, and I will never forgive him. Yes, I was a Key supporter for a long time.
You forgot this MASSIVE assumption.
He doesn’t need your forgiveness for he has nothing to be ashamed of.
If you are a Christian and you harbor this negative spirit of unforgiveness, you’re going to have trouble entering the kingdom of heaven.
Correction noted.
It can be somewhat difficult to catch all of his massive assumptions.
H
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