Nikki Tsongas Defeats Jim Ogonowski in MA Special Election

AP ^ | 10/16/07 | Glen Johnson

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Squishy on abortion, huh?"

And Iraq. I wonder what a strong Conservative's performance in such a district would've yielded. A liberal RINO vs. a raving moonbat with a chronic case of BDS ain't exactly much of a choice.

[darkangel82]

So Ogonowski was another Romney?

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Now, what is the bright side of all this?"

Well, you could congratulate me on my prediction that he would get about 45% of the vote. I know that bugs you my being right. ;-)

[Non-Sequitur]

I wonder what a strong Conservative's performance in such a district would've yielded.

In Massachusetts? Probably a Tsongas win in the double digits. Conservatives and New England don't go well together.

[Non-Sequitur]

Well, you could congratulate me on my prediction that he would get about 45% of the vote.

Your prediction on his vote was offset by your prediction on her's. You get half a congratulations.

Seriously, regardless of how you want to define conservatism Massachusetts isn't ready for it and probably won't be in our lifetime. And we both know it. Just have to keep our hopes up in other areas.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Hmm, not exactly. I don’t think Og misrepresented himself, as Romney has consistently done, but we invested a bit heavily in a man that probably would’ve voted more like the Maine Twins or Chris Shays. It would’ve been a nice psychological boost, but not much more. As I posited to Non-Seq, I wonder if Og had run a go-for-the-jugular, no-holds-barred unapologetic Conservative (which, mind you, doesn’t mean pro-Bush, as we well know) candidacy, how would it have turned out ? I think there is a substantial number of voters in MA that don’t bother to participate in voting because between the far-left kooks and the squishy go-along to get-alongs, there is nothing that is worth turning out for. It’s not even a matter of getting everybody to agree with your positions, but making enough of an appeal to people disenchanted with politics in stating there NEEDS to be a change in Washington. Niki Ticks-on-ass is just another Pelosibot footsoldier, no change, just the same old crap.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I wrote more in #46. There’s really no harm in trying to get an idea. At this point, with an all-rodent delegation, there is literally nothing to lose.

[darkangel82]

Shays is such an awful RINO, almost anyone would be better. Romney could get nothing done in MA with the way the statehouse is(85% D) but that’s the only thing he gets a pass on.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I was not taking into account the other candidates. With the Constitution party candidate, that pushed the “right coalition” up to 47 or 48%. I don’t know enough about the other independents to see where they leaned. Her percentage I wasn’t particularly trying to guess, it was his I was trying to.

As with my arguments with respect to how damaging the RINO Govs of MA have been, it’s not a matter of somehow turning the state wholescale into a Reagan Republican one, but building up enough of a minority bloc/base of footsoldiers at the legislative level that can start to effect change for the better for the long run. After all, if the state could essentially move from being heavily GOP to fairly heavily Dem in a generation (from the ‘50s to the ‘70s), with hard work, we could surely start to chip away at a clearly overrepresented hyper-Dem majority. Of course, if we don’t bother to try, it’ll never happen. Right now, the change needs to happen from the grassroots up. We’re not ready to get, nor should we get, the Governorship until we’ve done something about the grassroots and ludicrously low number of members in lesser offices around the state.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Incredible to realize that Shays remains the last elected House Republican in the entire New England area. Of course, we still have 4 Republican Senators + Lieberman (whom was elected with GOP help). I think we’ll get a few seats back next year, although likely just in NH (possibly 1 in CT, the Nancy Johnson seat).

I checked to see when was the last time we held a majority of New England House seats, and it was 1956, you can see the decline since that period from 1953-on (and the overall number of seats have declined from 28 to 22):

2007- (1R/21D)
2003-2007 (5R/16D/1Prog) (22, 2003-
2001-2003 (5R/17D/1Prog)
1997-2001 (4R/18D/1Prog)
1993-1997 (8R/14D/1Prog) (23, 1993-2003)
1991-1993 (7R/16D/1Prog)
1989-1991 (10R/14D)
1987-1989 (9R/15D)
1985-1987 (10R/14D)
1983-1985 (8R/16D) (24, 1983-1993)
1981-1983 (9R/16D)
1979-1981 (7R/18D)
1975-1979 (8R/17D)
1973-1975 (10R/15D)
1971-1973 (9R/16D)
1969-1971 (10R/15D)
1967-1969 (9R/16D)
1965-1967 (8R/17D)
1963-1965 (11R/14D) (25, 1963-1983)
1961-1963 (14R/14D) *tied
1959-1961 (9R/19D)
1955-1959 (18R/10D) *last GOP majority in New England elected in 1956
1953-1955 (19R/9D) (28, 1953-1963)

By state: (*denotes a GOP majority delegation)

Connecticut
2007- (1R/4D)
2003-07 (*3R/2D)
2001-03 (3R/3D)
1997-2001 (2R/4D)
1985-97 (3R/3D)
1981-85 (2R/4D)
1979-81 (1R/5D)
1975-79 (2R/4D)
1973-75 (3R/3D)
1971-73 (2R/4D)
1970-71 (3R/3D)
1969-70 (2R/4D)
1967-69 (1R/5D)
1965-67 (0R/6D)
1963-65 (1R/5D)
1961-63 (2R/4D)
1959-61 (0R/6D)
1957-59 (*6R/0D)
1953-57 (*5R/1D)

Maine
1997-on (0R/2D)
1987-97 (1R/1D)
1975-87 (*2R/0D)
1973-75 (1R/1D)
1967-73 (0R/2D)
1965-67 (1R/1D)
1963-65 (*2R/0D)
1961-63 (*3R/0D)
1959-61 (1R/2D)
1957-59 (*2R/1D)
1937-57 (*3R/0D)

Massachusetts
1997-on (0R/10D)
1993-97 (2R/8D)
Spring 1991-93 (0R/11D)
1983-Spring 91 (1R/10D)
1975-83 (2R/10D)
1973-75 (3R/9D)
early 1969-73 (4R/8D)
1963-early 69 (5R/7D)
1959-63 (6R/8D)
1955-59 (7R/7D)
1953-55 (*8R/6D)

New Hampshire
2007- (0R/2D)
1995-2007 (*2R/0D)
1991-95 (1R/1D)
1985-91 (*2R/0D)
1975-85 (1R/1D)
1967-75 (*2R/0D)
1965-67 (1R/1D)
1939-65 (*2R/0D)

Rhode Island
1995-on (0R/2D)
1991-95 (1R/1D)
1989-91 (*2R/0D)
1981-89 (1R/1D)
1941-81 (0R/2D)

Vermont
2007- (1D)
1991-2007 (1 Prog)
1961-91 (*1R)
1959-61 (1D)
1933-59 (*1R)

[Norman Bates]

Nice research, DJ, thanks!

21-1 is a staggering number. IMHO, and I say this not as a conservative partisan but as an American, it does not serve the best interests of the nation for any one party to have such a near-monopoly. If they prefer center-left up there fine - I strongly disagree - but at least take the time when the opportunity presents itself to elect a ‘decent’ centrist like Ogonowski, instead of a former politician’s widow running on name recognition and a rather dispositive and cynical platform. It’s a shame - Ogonowski would’ve creamed her in a year like ‘94 or ‘02.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I knew the 1958 midterm elections had been devastating for the GOP, but surely a stronger word must be used to describe the election’s effect in the CT House delegation. From 6 Republicans and 0 Democrats to 0 Republicans and 6 Democrats in a single election? Talk about a b*tch-slapping. That’s even worse than the 1934 House election results from PA.

I agree that, on paper, the old Nancy Johnson seat (which gave President Bush 49% in 2004) presents our best chance to win back New England House seats outside of the two NH seats (which are eminently winnable for us, especially the NH-01 that gave President Bush 51% in 2004 and is held by the moonbat Shea-Porter). However, the Democrat holding the seat, Chris Murphy, used to hold an even more Republican state senate seat, and the fact that he defeated Nancy Johnson by a whopping 12% despite being outspent 2:1 makes me think that he will be tough to beat in 2008.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I knew the 1958 midterm elections had been devastating for the GOP, but surely a stronger word must be used to describe the election’s effect in the CT House delegation. From 6 Republicans and 0 Democrats to 0 Republicans and 6 Democrats in a single election? Talk about a b*tch-slapping."

At that time, there were 5 House districts and an at-large. We picked up the Hartford-based 1st in 1956 for only the first time since 1946 with a young Republican named Edwin May (Tom Dodd had vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully against Dubya's grandpa Prescott, and Dodd had succeeded Abe Ribicoff, who by 1954 was elected Governor over John Lodge, Henry's brother). May lost to Emilio Daddario (who is still alive today), and the seat has been Dem since 1958 (although the legendary Ann Uccello, former Conservative Mayor of Hartford, nearly took the open seat in 1970). May last ran against Ribicoff in '68, but lost quite badly.

In the 2nd district, the Dems put up a heavy-hitter with former Governor Chester Bowles, and he took down 5-term incumbent Horace Seely-Brown. Bowles opted not to run for reelection in 1960 and Seely-Brown took back the seat. When Prescott Bush retired in '62 from the Senate, Seely-Brown was the GOP nominee, but lost to Abe Ribicoff, who had taken leave from his Cabinet post to run (as it was, Seely-Brown nearly won the seat, losing by just 51-49%). Of course, when Seely-Brown vacated his seat, the Dems grabbed it and held it until the incumbent Dem died in 1970.

In the New Haven-based 3rd, the 3-term incumbent, Albert Cretella was beaten by Bob Giaimo. Giaimo held it until he retired in 1980 (in 1974, Bob Giaimo's opponent was none other than young Republican and future FReeper BlackElk -- I won't divulge his real name ;-)). The only Democrat since after 1958 to lose the seat was a fella named Joe Lieberman in 1980 when he was beaten by RINO Larry DeNardis.

In the Bridgeport based 4th (the Shays seat today), 4-term incumbent Albert Morano lost to Donald J. Irwin (who is still alive today). Morano, ironically, went to go work as an assistant to Tom Dodd in the Senate ! Irwin was defeated in 1960 for reelection, but won it back again for 2 terms in 1964 and 1966. Lowell Weicker beat him in 1968 and the district has not gone back to the Dems since.

In the 5th district, 6-term incumbent James Patterson lost to John Monagan. Patterson lost a rematch in 1960 and again a decade later in 1970. We didn't recover the seat until Monagan was defeated by Ron Sarasin in 1972.

For the At-Large seat, 6-term GOP incumbent Antoni Sadlak was upset by Frank Kowalski. Because the GOP wasn't able to overcome their overall voting minority, they never reclaimed the seat as an At-Large. In the wake of Baker v. Carr abolishing At-Large districts, the legislature drew a new 6th Congressional seat for the At-Large Dem incumbent in 1964, and he won it. That man, Bernard Grabowski, lost to Conservative GOPer Tom Meskill in 1966 (who would go on to be elected Governor in 1970, and is still a federal judge today).

[darkangel82]

Lowell Weicker beat him in 1968 and the district has not gone back to the Dems since.

You mean Weicker and Shays weren't Dems?

[fieldmarshaldj]

What Weicker is can’t be repeated on a family website.

[darkangel82]

LOL! I agree.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

You can’t tell who is truly leftist and who is truly conservative from just this list. Just about every Massachusetts Governor from both political parties isn’t completely conservative by any means.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

I truly don’t see how Jim could of possibly won this race. Massachusetts has been like its own socialistic country for several decades now and counting. It’s amazing that there have been any Republican Governors in Massachusetts at all, even if they are not fully conservative. The majority of Massachusetts voters have been brought up to never vote for any Republicans for any reasons whatsoever, and this mindset is still very dominant throughout Massachusetts.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Thanks for the info.

Regarding Ann Uccelo, was it the governorship that she would have surely won in 1970 had they not forced her to defer to a RINO and run a suicide mission in the Hartford-based 1st?

[jamese777]

“You can’t tell who is truly leftist and who is truly conservative from just this list. Just about every Massachusetts Governor from both political parties isn’t completely conservative by any means.”

---

Are any governors from any states “completely” conservative?