History says the same thing: in all of China's long history, it has never had a representative government.
My own guess is that it won't develop one since I believe that there is no historical dynamic working here to create one.
Instead, Red China will continue the long history of rule from above, which has at least featured meritocratic elements at various times.
History should also show that the Chinese people clearly desire a strong central government. In fact, they demand it.