I like the siphoning thing. Let the siphoning begin.
Interestingly, the idea that free markets (ie a political futures market) would be a better predictor than polls is not far fetched and has been studied. In a poll there are no ramifications to the pollster, the polling company or the general public as to whether they are right or wrong. If somebody has money on it, however, they have an incentive to be right.
As to the siphoning thing, Paul will definitely siphon votes from anti war voters who are not Marxists and don’t like Hillary (Karl Marx in a pantsuit). However, don’t discount a few votes being siphoned from libertarians in the GOP who are sick of “Republicans” co-opting Big Gubmint to suit their agenda.