Posted on 10/02/2007 7:59:24 AM PDT by shrinkermd
The price of ethanol has fallen by 30% over the past few months as a glut of the corn-based fuel looms, while the price of ethanol's primary component, corn, had risen. That is squeezing ethanol companies' profits and pushing some ethanol plants to the brink of bankruptcy.
Some ethanol companies are "under deathwatch" now, says Chris Groobey, a partner in the project-finance practice of law firm Baker & McKenzie, which has worked with lenders and private-equity funds involved with ethanol.
That could be fine for big efficient players like Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., one of the nation's biggest ethanol producers by output. ADM and other big ethanol companies probably can ride out the storm, even though they might have to scale back on their production. Smaller players may not fare as well, and may be snapped up by bigger survivors.
The downturn exposes the industry's reliance on political support in Washington, which has offered tax credits to refiners to blend ethanol with gasoline, as well as tariffs on imported ethanol and other measures.
...Ethanol companies are seeking increases in pending energy legislation in the amount of ethanol refiners are required to use. At the same time, food, cattle, poultry and other interests are quietly nudging lawmakers to pull back on subsidies that encourage ethanol production and have indirectly led to increases in food costs due to the increase in the price of corn and other grains.
"It's probably going to get worse before it gets better," said Brian Bolster, a vice president in the investment-banking division at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which has invested in at least one ethanol plant. He nevertheless remains bullish over the long term for the industry, amid expectations of increasing government support, infrastructure improvements and other factors.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
“The downturn exposes the industry’s reliance on political support in Washington.”
Yes indeed!
“Alternative energy is totally political, goldfish.”
I prefer the term Energy B$!
Yes, the culprits are the same. I didn’t realize who was behind this B$ 31 years ago. I just knew that something was wrong, and the pro solar whackos were shoveling the B$ at us at an increasing rate.
I wonder how much the corny gasoline has cost in California re tax $’s, lower mileage per gallon and maybe engine damage.
This Corny Ga$ is starting to smell, look like and sound like the MTBE B$ we were force feed years ago.
Because it's plentiful. I've thought all along that ethanol from corn would be an interim step, until there's more research and more tweaking of the means of maing ethanol from other crops, and a shift to planting more acreage of those crops.
A shift to cellulose-based rather than fructose-baaed ethanol production would likely have a much higher energy yield per acre, and can use crops that grow on marginal land with less tending. But it's not ready for prime time yet.
It’s a classic gold-rush phenomenon. Too many people rushed in at once, including a lot of folks (I’m including both producers and their investors) who didn’t have much of an idea what they were doing. Just like computer makers in the ‘80s, or dot-coms in the ‘00s, or auto makers a century ago, more players jumped in than the game has room for.
Rendered fats have some promise - and there's the added benefit that getting it out of the animal feed chain gets rid of a source of controversy and possible risk.
There was a really interesting piece a few weeks back about a university team with a plan to convert chicken waste into pyrodiesel -- and know, i'm not sure what that is. But the kicker is that it also produces enough methane to fuel the conversion, making it completely self-contained and self-sufficient, and they can fit the plant on a truck, so it can go from farm to farm and not have to transport the doo.
I also saw a story about a cattle rancher who had his own small-scale ethanol plant -- the stalks and leaves went back into the feed, and when they came out of the other end of the cow, he burned the cow flops to fuel the distillation, again making it self-sufficient.
If either of those two approaches takes off, it could have a ripple effect, since both chicken and cow manure are common fertilizers, and a shortage of either could have unforeseen consequences. Now, if they just figured out a way to get energy from pig poo, that woiuld be a breakthrough -- it tends to build up in nasty and even hazardous amounts on big farms.
Rendered fats have some promise - and there's the added benefit that getting it out of the animal feed chain gets rid of a source of controversy and possible risk.
There was a really interesting piece a few weeks back about a university team with a plan to convert chicken waste into pyrodiesel -- and know, i'm not sure what that is. But the kicker is that it also produces enough methane to fuel the conversion, making it completely self-contained and self-sufficient, and they can fit the plant on a truck, so it can go from farm to farm and not have to transport the doo.
I also saw a story about a cattle rancher who had his own small-scale ethanol plant -- the stalks and leaves went back into the feed, and when they came out of the other end of the cow, he burned the cow flops to fuel the distillation, again making it self-sufficient.
If either of those two approaches takes off, it could have a ripple effect, since both chicken and cow manure are common fertilizers, and a shortage of either could have unforeseen consequences. Now, if they just figured out a way to get energy from pig poo, that woiuld be a breakthrough -- it tends to build up in nasty and even hazardous amounts on big farms.
Rendered fats have some promise - and there's the added benefit that getting it out of the animal feed chain gets rid of a source of controversy and possible risk.
There was a really interesting piece a few weeks back about a university team with a plan to convert chicken waste into pyrodiesel -- and know, i'm not sure what that is. But the kicker is that it also produces enough methane to fuel the conversion, making it completely self-contained and self-sufficient, and they can fit the plant on a truck, so it can go from farm to farm and not have to transport the doo.
I also saw a story about a cattle rancher who had his own small-scale ethanol plant -- the stalks and leaves went back into the feed, and when they came out of the other end of the cow, he burned the cow flops to fuel the distillation, again making it self-sufficient.
If either of those two approaches takes off, it could have a ripple effect, since both chicken and cow manure are common fertilizers, and a shortage of either could have unforeseen consequences. Now, if they just figured out a way to get energy from pig poo, that woiuld be a breakthrough -- it tends to build up in nasty and even hazardous amounts on big farms.
Prices have collapsed and stock prices have plummeted, but some say these are just normal kinks in an industry with a solid future.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/02/markets/ethanol/index.htm
This ethanol is no threat to potable water unless it's mixed into it immediately prior to drinking. Old B.T. Collins used to drink Malthion, used to kill off Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown's mediteranian fruit flies. But his gut was already so rotted from alcohol already that it din't matter!!! (grin)
However, I get your high-value point! Oxidizing agents are not needed in our basic 49 state gasoline! All these expensive botique gasolines are utterly unneeded and unnecessary and just squander a lot of the taxpayers resources. Especially those huge salaries and pensions at CARB along with the horde of CA employees(parasites) at 2020 "I" street in Sacramento!!!
More horse hockey from the Arab lobby.
WE REAP, WHAT THEY SOW
BUMP!
Thanks for the information and graph info on oil usage.
Probably take a while to absorb.
Found a book today I had misplaced called ‘The Environmental Case for Nuclear Power’ by Robert C. Morris, 2000, Paragon House, where he uses a 1982 Commonwealth Edison Cost chart of Electricity Generated by Nuclear Versus Coal which shows Nuke cost/KWh as 2.24 vs coal at 4.33 on page 98.
Interesting, considering I read an unlinked Goldman Sachs internet post tonight where the poster indicates that GS says ‘a substantial change in Canadian policies in order to incentivise the use of nuclear power in tar sands production, and facilitate immigration of much needed foreign engineers appears unlikely in the near term;...’
— so there’s possibly more nuke power usage potential in future years fossil fuel production needs, granted it’s delayed a bit? I didn’t even know that potential existed.
GS also says ‘nationalization of the Orinoco belt assets by Venezuela has led to a sharp decline in non-conventional output and no further foreign input of capital; ..’
and
‘Biofuel production has substantially driven up agriculture prices, pushing the subsidized cost of many of these fuels anywhere from $65/bbl to $150/bbl with a further scale-up likely to push agriculture prices even higher and hence raise biofuel production costs; ...’
and
‘Crude oil production during these summer months was nearly 1.0 million b/d below the level a year ago, while demand was averaging more than 1.0 million b/d higher than the level a year ago. This sharp imbalance prevented the normal seasonal build in inventories and has even set the stage for a third quarter draw on stocks, which is a rare event typically associated with significant winter spikes... ‘
and
‘If Saudi Arabia, UAW, and Kuwait ramp production up by 1.0 million b/d, the world would be left with very little spare capacity, which is politically dangerous for the GCC countries as they would have less of a negotiating position that the spare capacity provides, and would be economically dangerous for the consumer countries...’
-— so I can conclude that —
it looks like we eventually will have to expand our existing nuke plants by 100% after recertificating the old sections, both I understand can be done. The natural gas peaker plants could be eliminated and natural gas would be then be cheap enough to replace some petrol usage?
Next, we build new nuke plants to replace all the coal usage and reduce our energy cost by another 50% (vs coal costs) or even more if lawsuits are reduced or limited and regularity cost are streamlined.
No more coal trains using fuel, farmers could dry corn & soybeans with electrical rather than gas heat, I & my neighbors could switch to an AEK & electrical heating saving bulk fuel delivery costs and fuel heating/natural gas costs.
I could grow my food year-around in a hot house rather than buying tainted food both locally and from overseas locations and even saving even more in production/transportation costs.
Plus, if were develop ANR and off-shore California oil drilling and buy FLA needs from the nearby Chinese rigs, we’d be in great shape.
Life could be good and no food would have to be burnt!
But in today's environment, nuclear cost more to build and to operate.
Cost and Performance Characteristics of New Central Station Electricity Generating Technologies
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/electricity.pdf#page=3
If Saudi Arabia, UAW, and Kuwait ramp production up by 1.0 million b/d, the world would be left with very little spare capacity
There has been an immense building of production facilities and infrastructure around the world the last couple of years. Information based upon production capacities of just two years ago would already be out of date. The building in Russia going on now is huge for example.
expand our existing nuke plants by 100% ... The natural gas peaker plants could be eliminated
Nuclear plants are base load plants. The do not ramp up and down quickly like a peaking unit. They are not interchangeable applications for power.
nuke plants to replace all the coal usage
Using coal for power is one of the cheapest ways to generate electrical power. Reducing our coal usuage increases our dependence on others for energy. We already import more uranium than we produce domestically.
ANWR would be a better step.
Hydrogen does not exist in the world as a fuel source. It is already bound in other stable molecules. You can consume natural gas to liberate hydrogen and end up with less available energy than what existed in natural gas. The other significant choice to to separate it from water, but this process consumes more energy than the fuel contains. Hydrogen, unless mined from other planets, is only a energy storage medium, not an energy source.
How about as a storage medium for the waste heat of a nation of nuclear power plants?
Personally, I think ethanol was a corny idea in the first place. Actually, the first step to enenrgy independence is to tap our our own petroleum and natural gas resouces. They abound and there is no reason not to do it. Let the market place take care of the rest. It works every time.
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