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Leading indicators point down for GOP
AP ^ | September 29, 2007 | David Espo

Posted on 09/29/2007 4:27:18 PM PDT by CheyennePress

WASHINGTON - It is gallows humor time for Republicans in Congress, where one lawmaker jokes that "there's talk about us going the way of the Whigs," the 19th century political party long extinct.

"That's not going to happen," Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., hastens to add, although a little more than a year before the 2008 election, the major leading political indicators still point downward for a party abruptly turned out of power in 2006.

Fundraising for Republican campaign organizations lags. That is strikingly so in the House, where the party committee spent more than it raised in each of the past two months, reported only $1.6 million in the bank at the end of August and a debt of nearly $4 million.

Democrats reported $22.1 million in the bank and a debt of slightly more than $3 million.

Candidate recruitment has been uneven, particularly in the Senate, where Republicans must defend 22 of the 34 seats on the ballot next year. Democrats boast top-tier challengers for GOP-held seats in Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota and Oregon.

Republicans have yet to put forward a prominent challenger for any Democratic-held seat, although an announcement is expected soon in Louisiana.

Additionally, nine Republicans in the House and three in the Senate have announced plans to retire. Some of those leaving are in midcareer, when a departure often signals pessimism about the prospects for regaining the majority. Democratic retirements total two to date — both are House members who are running for the Senate.

"The Democrats will continue to be the majority party in the House and Senate and Hillary Clinton will make history by being the first woman president" in 2008, predicts Rep. Ray LaHood, one of three Illinois Republicans to announce his retirement so far.

What makes LaHood's prediction stand out is his willingness to say it publicly.

Numerous other Republican lawmakers, aides and strategists said Democrats appear headed for two more years in power in Congress, but they declined to say so on the record.

Despite their difficulties, Republicans are not deep in the minority. A switch of 16 seats would give them control of the House next year; a change of one or two seats could deliver the Senate.

Despite the GOP's worst defeat since the Watergate era of the 1970s, Republican Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma said recently, "We have more seats than Ronald Reagan had on his best day."

He added that Republicans have a better chance of winning a House majority in 2008 than they do of capturing the Senate or the White House. Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, chairman of the GOP senatorial committee, offered no response.

But Cole's job performance as head of the House GOP political arm is under internal challenge. In a recent private leadership meeting, Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, sought the dismissal of the group's two top campaign aides, saying the committee lacked aggressiveness.

Cole refused and said he would quit first before firing the staff. Boehner, the party leader, backed down, at least temporarily, but may yet seek to install a senior aide at the committee. The officials who discussed the events did so on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to discuss private conversations.

After a long turn in power in Congress, LaHood and other Republicans say the change in fortunes is partly the result of historical cycles. "The American people like a change," he said.

At the same time, President Bush's approval is stuck in the mid-30s and the Iraq war remains unpopular with the public.

Nor have the ethics woes that plagued the party in last year's elections abated. Corruption investigations swirl around Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens and California Rep. John Doolittle. To the particular distress of party leaders, Idaho Sen. Larry Craig pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct last summer in an airport men's room sex sting operation and has yet to make good on an earlier pledge to resign.

Stevens and Doolittle deny all wrongdoing, as does Craig, who has asked a Minnesota judge to permit him to withdraw his guilty plea.

Polls, too, chart the decline of the Republicans.

A recent Gallup poll reported that 59 percent of those surveyed have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party. By a margin of 47-42 percent, they said Democrats will do a better job of protecting against terrorism and military threats. Asked which party would better maintain prosperity, the majority preferred the Democrats, 54-34.

Despite their woes, numerous Republicans say they may have weathered the worst of it.

The race for the 2008 presidential nomination may sort itself out as early as February, they say, giving the party a new face months before the elections.

"Whoever it is, it won't be George W. Bush," said Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind. "I deeply admire the president, but many Americans have a somewhat unmovable impression of the president at this point," he added.

Others predict Clinton will win her party's nomination for the White House and say her polarizing effect on the voters will benefit GOP candidates in swing areas currently held by Democrats.

"A Clinton candidacy would help energize Republicans to go out and vote in down-ballot races," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster working in House and Senate campaigns. "It will help the Republican case for divided government."

Pence also said the military situation in Iraq is improving, and that a looming spending struggle between Bush and the Democrats should help reassure conservative voters who have become disaffected.

But efforts to draw clear distinctions with the Democrats can cut both ways.

Senate Republicans from New Hampshire, Maine, Oregon and Minnesota, who face particularly tough races in 2008, all voted in recent days for a children's health care bill that Bush has pledged to veto.

"I just do not understand his decision, and I think it would be terrible," said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. She faces a challenge from Rep. Tom Allen, D-Maine.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; dailywhine; gop; melsfault; shootingselfinfoot; tomdavis
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To: CheyennePress

Uh....I think you need to get back to your medical studies.


41 posted on 09/29/2007 5:43:58 PM PDT by goodnesswins (Being Challenged Builds Character! Being Coddled Destroys Character!)
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To: roamer_1

Nah, a hard right conservative won’t do the trick, because he won’t be able to muster enough of the middling vote that will be needed to reach the White House. We need someone conservative enough they he won’t become too enamored of getting the media on his side, can speak the language to bring conservatives along, but someone who won’t scare away the folks who are suspicious of the Right.


42 posted on 09/29/2007 5:49:53 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: CheyennePress

All under Mel Martinez’s tenure.....


43 posted on 09/29/2007 5:52:19 PM PDT by Sybeck1 (Join me for the Million Minutemen March --- Summer 2008!!)
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To: CheyennePress

Somebody needs to tell the Republican leadership that they can continue to be in the minority, OR they can regain both houses of Congress.

But THEY must be the ones who swallow the bitter pill and do what is necessary to get their house in order, and regain public popularity and trust:

They MUST guarantee party discipline, with harsh punishment for those who stray. And they MUST guarantee fiscal discipline, to the point of abolishing earmarks altogether.

Right now, the Republican leadership are like the small boy with his hand in the cookie jar. His little hand, full of cookies, is too big to pull out of the jar. But he refuses to just take one cookie at a time, he wants them all at once. So in his greed and anger, he cries and rages at the cookie jar, for not letting him have all the cookies he wants.

The OTHER thing the Republicans must do is to recreate the Contract With America. A short list of popular and responsible items that ALL Republican candidates sign on to, if they want ANY help from the party in the elections.

Oh remember, how some Republicans refused to sign the CWA, because they felt it was not right, and not fair, and that the seat they occupied was THEIR seat, and they didn’t have to promise anybody anything to keep it. More fool they.

The public LOVED the CWA, because it cut through the smoke and said, simply and without reservation, what the Republicans promised to do if elected. People loved that.

They loved it because it was clear, easy to understand, wasn’t full of waffling or mind changing, double talk and all the other crapola politicians usually use.

And the public would LOVE a CWA-2. Because it is honest.

And if Republican candidates won’t be honest with their constituents, why should they expect support at all? If they want to lie or deceive that much, they should switch parties.

But it is the Republican leadership’s choice. Control yourselves and your peers, or stay the minority.


44 posted on 09/29/2007 5:54:34 PM PDT by Popocatapetl
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To: CheyennePress

The GOP must regain, and run on, Conservative principles. That is how they gained control of the WH in 1980, and how they took control of the Congress in 1994.

When they gave up their conservative principles, they lost the Congress in 2006.

Why vote for Democrat-light when you can vote for the real thing?


45 posted on 09/29/2007 5:58:16 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: MNJohnnie
Know it all the fault of moron “conservatives” who rush around the net continually whining because our side isn’t perfect instead of EVER attacking the Left ON ANY THING.

Now is not the time to attack the left. Now is the time to promote conservatism amongst our fellows, and to cry out a warning to those of you who are content with less. The Right will not be content with compromise, and no quarter will be given. To compromise is the certainty of doom IMHO, and I will fight tooth and nail with you or any other to preserve the values that we all supposedly stand for.

Those who jeer that attempt had best look to their principles.

46 posted on 09/29/2007 5:58:21 PM PDT by roamer_1 (Vote for FrudyMcRomson -Turn red states purple in 08!)
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To: sphinx

Yep...and a salary threshold of almost $80,000! Yep that’s poor! (Well, on second thought in the overtaxed “Peoples Republic of NJ” it might be).


47 posted on 09/29/2007 5:59:07 PM PDT by alice_in_bubbaland (Ron Paul is nutcase, plain & simple.)
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To: CheyennePress

“It is gallows humor time for Republicans in Congress, where one lawmaker jokes that “there’s talk about us going the way of the Whigs”

Keep being soft on illegals and having “gay-eruptions” amongst your ranks and you sure as heck will.


48 posted on 09/29/2007 6:01:14 PM PDT by Grunthor (I'd be Catholic but I don't speak latin and don't wanna learn just to go to church.)
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To: alice_in_bubbaland

It actually raises the level to $82,000/yr and makes children up to and including the age of 25.

But the MSM never tell you about this part of the Bill.

The Bill was just a way of getting the foot in the door for complete socialized medicine.


49 posted on 09/29/2007 6:04:03 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: bill1952
This arrogance has alienated the base and I see dire times ahead indeed for we conservatives and true patriots.

Exactly. The only way forward is for the RINOs to step down. That should be the demand right now. Retiring the RINOs and turning control to the Conservatives is the way to win.

50 posted on 09/29/2007 6:13:58 PM PDT by roamer_1 (Vote for FrudyMcRomson -Turn red states purple in 08!)
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To: CheyennePress

If Giuliani gets the GOP nomination, as he well might, I expect the Republicans to go the way of the Whigs. In fact, I hope they will.


51 posted on 09/29/2007 6:25:26 PM PDT by madprof98 ("moritur et ridet" - salvianus)
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To: AmericaUnited

It is hyperbolic sarcasm


52 posted on 09/29/2007 6:27:29 PM PDT by bill1952 (The 10 most important words for change: "If it is to be, it is up to me")
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To: Paperdoll
If the Conservatives cannot recapture the control of the GOP, or at least gain healthy and fair recognition, I think that it is time for traditional Conservatives to form a new party.

BUMP.

53 posted on 09/29/2007 6:28:19 PM PDT by roamer_1 (Vote for FrudyMcRomson -Turn red states purple in 08!)
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To: SuziQ

No member of the GOP who is not to the left of Lenin will ever get the approval of the MSM.. Write it off.


54 posted on 09/29/2007 6:29:06 PM PDT by bill1952 (The 10 most important words for change: "If it is to be, it is up to me")
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To: CheyennePress

BUILD THE DARN FENCE.

The rest will take care of itself.

Just STOP SELLING OUT YOUR BASE. STOP IT. COMPLETELY. NOW.

It’s really that simple.

Then start winning elections again.


55 posted on 09/29/2007 6:30:29 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: SuziQ
conservative enough

As Conservatives here have proclaimed in no uncertain terms, "conservative enough" is not going to be enough. The base will vote for a Republican, but only for a Republican GUARANTEED to hold fast to the principles we hold dear.

To compromise is to lose. What good comes of enchanting the moderates if the base stays home?

56 posted on 09/29/2007 6:41:03 PM PDT by roamer_1 (Vote for FrudyMcRomson -Turn red states purple in 08!)
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To: Popocatapetl
But THEY must be the ones who swallow the bitter pill and do what is necessary to get their house in order, and regain public popularity and trust:

They need to step down and cede control to the Conservatives.

57 posted on 09/29/2007 6:43:10 PM PDT by roamer_1 (Vote for FrudyMcRomson -Turn red states purple in 08!)
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To: penowa
“MORON CONSERVATIVES,” as you put it, know that RINOs are going to get what they vote for = Democrats in charge for a long, long time. The Republican party is begging to go the way of the Whigs by becoming the “me too Democrats.”

I think JD Hayworth, Rick Santorum and the popular vote in 2000 all show us that just "being conservative" isn't enough.

The battle for hearts and minds is not so simple as just calling someone a Rino and preaching to the choir here.

58 posted on 09/29/2007 6:43:20 PM PDT by lawnguy (Give me some of your tots!!!)
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To: CheyennePress

Speaking as one who has supported the GOP physically, spiritually and monetarily since 1970........I’m not giving them or their candidates another dime until I see something change.


59 posted on 09/29/2007 6:46:52 PM PDT by elkfersupper
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To: CheyennePress

I think the Rats are going to lose control of Congress in 08, along with not winning the Presidency. It’s the National Defense stupid! And the voters can see no difference between the Rats and our enemies.


60 posted on 09/29/2007 6:47:25 PM PDT by TheDon (The DemocRAT party is the party of TREASON! Overthrow the terrorist's congress!)
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