I’m sorry, but all your describing is the consequences of a weak dollar. Yes, other nations decide, temporarily, that there must be a better instrument. A weak currency has effect in that the current state of affairs makes domestic business much stronger, thus more valuable. This weak dollar has what affect on domestic ag biz, auto sales, Boeing, MSFT INTC CSCO ORCL..., medical equipment, tourism, etc? Also, do you realize many American companies are borrowing in foreign currencies now, and doing share buy backs? They intend to pay these loans back, at a discount...
When a deal is made for US cash, not goods, the cash must do something. If they don’t sit on the cash, they must trade it away, buy US securities, R/E, US business interests, or something.
It appears that to a great extent, they’ve traded it away to the lowest bidder, making the currency weaker. At some point, that imbalance becomes so great, that uppity Londoners fly to NY for back to school clothes...
What we are talking about is a financial chess game, that always results in the US returning to the “runner” of the board. Within months really, the USD should rally, this will bring foreign money back to the US equity and bond market, the domestic returns will be very nice.
I feel sorry a bit for the misguided public that has been again tricked into buying foreign stocks and bonds at the peak in the cycle.
So, "we will always win, because, we are Americans!"
Pride goeth before the fall.
Previously, our allies always stepped in to protect the dollar at key exchange rates, afraid of the global system losing its balance. The yen at 110, the Euro at 140 etc. That is, they would lower interest rates to protect the dollar status quo.
This is not happening this time. The world sees the dollar as doomed this time, and they don't want to ride it down. The Saudis are not dropping interest rates as they have previously, which means they are dumping their dollar peg. The Chinese are staying away from the T window. This is not just another swing in the old cycle. This is the end of the dollar's world reserve status. We are not going to just "run the board" again because we are America, and we always win.
On what indicators?