Posted on 09/29/2007 7:43:01 AM PDT by jdm
My friend and all-around brilliant political analyst Patrick Ruffini deduces that Newt Gingrich has decided to enter the 2008 presidential race. He takes a look at Newt's pledge scheme and figures that Newt only needs to find 14,000 donors to contribute the maximum $2300 in order to reach the threshold of $30 million Newt demanded as a prerequisite to opening a nomination bid:
Newt would need only 14,000 of his fans to flood the site with $2,300 "pledges" in order to declare a broad public groundswell for his candidacy.
Sound far-fetched? You've seen what Ron Paul supporters do. You think Newt fans wouldn't do the same if they believed his entry into the race depended on it? And if Newt's people actually left the system this open -- i.e. didn't require you to leave a credit card that could then be charged -- I guarantee this hack would spread like wildfire on the blogs the minute the site went up.
Well, that's certainly one look at the situation. The pledge system seems rather non-committal, and if Newt could generate a Paul-like Internet movement, he could garner that much in meaningless pledges. Something tells me that Newt isn't looking for vaporware donations, however, and that he's serious about needing $30 million to catch up to Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, if not Fred Thompson. I doubt seriously that Newt wants to give up his current commitments just to wind up with a few million dollars in actual receipts and drafting in just above the second tier.
So what does that mean? Why make a demand for $30 million in pledged donations in just three weeks, an amount that no Republican candidate in the race has managed in an entire quarter? It sets a bar so high that it qualifies as highly improbable, if not impossible. It's designed to fail, and to let Newt get back to his American Solutions project.
And let's take a look at this project. Newt has made clear that he thinks the future is in bipartisan outreach. This Wiki-style grassroots movement is designed to facilitate that, and to generate policy on all levels -- local, state, and federal. If he has any amount of success in transforming policy through American Solutions and drafts both Republicans and Democrats into the system, he really could generate a new movement of pragmatism within American politics.
If he does that, Newt will exchange his limited constituency from a narrow philosophical band to a truly national organization that transcends partisan lines. He can choose then whether to play kingmaker or heir apparent. Newt will be able to rid himself of the baggage of the bitter partisanship of his Speakership and reinvent himself as a Teddy Roosevelt.
That will take some time to develop -- and that plays into this analysis. In talking with Newt yesterday, he made it clear that he thought the Republicans (and Democrats) had run politics off the rails. He claimed that GOP consultants were basically stupid (an analysis which Matt Lewis found some consultants in agreement). The only candidate for which Newt had any kind words was Hillary Clinton, calling her serious and formidable, if wrong on almost all policy.
I think Newt believes that Hillary will win the presidency in 2008. He's not looking to beat her; realistically, he knows he won't be given that chance in 2008. He's looking to build a constituency that will allow him to challenge Hillary in a re-election bid in 2012. That's the calculus I see at work, only at risk of changing if he actually finds a hard $30 million in a little more than a fortnight -- which would indicate a bigger constituency than he first thought. Either way, he's positioned himself well.
I hate to say it but when I just read Newt’s program it makes lots of sense. Only problem is Newt has got too much baggage to bring this off. Too bad his ego is too big to have him join the campaign of an existing candidate and help them win with his ideas.
Newt is permanently unelectable. His disgusting personal life rivals that of Rudy. Hitlery or the Soros groups could run devastating attack ads. Newt would lose a Goldwater style landslide.
Newt’s Running ... In 2012...
by then he will want $60,000,000
Love or hate Newt..... you can’t deny that he is committed deeply to the success of this counrty, and to real change. I ahve seen anyone in the race on either side that is actually doing the things necessary to bring about change that Newt is doing.
I’m not buying that Newt is trying to build a movement towards 2012. Hillary would do a lot of damage by then, and I doubt Newt would allow that. Our top-tier candidates are all seriously flawed. Keep in mind that these polls only list names.... not positions. It is a popularity contest at this point.
Rudy: Will not win with his abortion and gay marriage positions.
McCain: Does anyone believe he can win? What fresh ideas does he bring to the table to excite voters?
Thompson: Likeable, but from what I have seen.... terrible speaker, slow on his feet, and unprepared to convincingly answer tough questions. No real substance.
Romney: Too scripted, too polished, too robotic. Flip flops on some key issues. Being a mormon *might* hurt him.... not sure. For as much money and airtime a he has recieved, his poll numbers are dismal.
Newt is watching. Our candidates are all disappointing, and he knows this. Newt is the real deal on all levels. If you haven’t been following him, and are only judging him by the one-line attacks he recieves on this board, then you don’t understand why there is such need for him to enter the race. Newt is very conservative, and is better than anyone at contrasting his conservative ideas and solutions versus the liberal, failed alternative Hillary would offer.
There is no doubt in my mind that Newt will be our next president. Leave the personal attacks out of it..... and tell me, issue by issue, how your candidate is better than Newt. My guess, whether you admit it here or not, is that deep down that Newt is supremely qualified president.
I’ve been rather interested of late in what he has to say, and He tends to speak to what I like.
.....and don’t forget: Today is Solutions Day!
http://www.americansolutions.com/
THIS is why Newt will get $30,000,000 in pledges. People are sick of this “my team vs. your team” garbage. Newt is already doing what the country is waiting for someone to do. Solve problems. Find solutions. THAT appeals to people in all parties, and THAT is why people WILL be excited to vote for Newt Gingrich, despite the “baggage”. The baggage is in the past. All people grow and learn....... every single one of us. Newt’s future is very bright, and America’s could be too.
The sound you hear is one hand clapping.
“Newt lost me permanently with his “debate” with John Kerry over global warming. Screw him”
Please. What liberal solutions to the environment did he propose? What candidate are you supporting? FYI.... no one in this race will please everyone on every issue. Newt very well could be our nominee, and if he is, I hope you change your mind and support him over Hillary.
Newt is unelectable. Too much of a hypocrite. The media and others would rake him over the coals for committing adultery while going after Clinton for doing the same. I particularly love his recent comments on referring to himself as “middle class” while referring to Mitt Romney as rich. Heck, I wish I were as “middle class” as Gingrich. Seriously, only a person completely out of touch with the American electorate would refer to himself as “middle class” when that person is as well off as Newt Ginrichis.
Newt is a very intelligent man. He at least thinks through the issues, which is more than I can say for many of the politicians running today. He has the WOT nailed, which is more than I can say for even President Bush’s administration. I would vote for Newt in a heartbeat.
Newt’s not going to be our nominee. If he is, I’ll hold my nose and vote for him in the general, even though he’d lose.
My problem isn’t with his “liberal solutions” to the environment. My problem is that his “solutions” are “solutions” to a bogus problem. My problem is that he’s accepting the idiotic liberal premise that humans are wrecking the planet. My problem is that he seems to want to suck up to lefties like Kerry. My problem is that he gave away the real argument and spent the rest of the “debate” fighting for the scraps.
No thanks.
The odds are great that the next president will be a one termer. For Americans to elect three two term presidents in a row is running against the odds IMO when you look at previous elections. If you discount FDR’s four terms as a fluke then the only time since the current parties has been around that one party has held the White House for 16 years in a row or four terms was McKinley, Teddy Roosevelt, Taft’s term at the term of the last century.
Not saying we shouldn’t do everything to elect another Republican but we should have plan B ready if the Democrats win to be ready in 2012 to reclaim the White House. I have a feeling we are going to see a replay of 1976 which lead to the 1980 Republican victory.
I hope you are right about Newt.
I pray he does run.
I don’t like or trust the so-called front runners.. for exactly every reason you pointed out.
It is a simple fact of the Electoral College.
Ohio is the only state in play large enough to swing the numbers to the left.
And with the disastrous legacy of the RINOs who the voters swept out of office lingering one election past... Ohio will be a DEM STATE in 2008.
Period.
Only a real... get this now.. REAL “Reaganesue” Republican could win Ohio.
And NONE of the front runners... or even the very close last placed Hunter (who just can’t speak well) will do it.
Flat out... We are going to lose Ohio without someone who can really really REALLLLLLY take the issues in plain speaking terms to the voters there.... and elsewhere for that matter.
But, given that we see none and hear none... the rest of this debate is futile mental masturbation posing ad pseudo intellectualism.
I am not even sure Newt could carry Ohio... every generation, Ohio goes Dem and this is just one of those cycles.
By 2012, they will be sorry and go back GOP... but for 2008... it is a foregone conclusion.
So nothing else matters.
Hillary will win ALL the other Dem States... and we will lose Ohio and thus the Presidency.
If we can face the facts, plan for the contingencies, and be prepared... we can look forward to a SWEEP of the House and Senate in 2010 and total control back by 2012...
If we fail... if we lie to ourselves... if we let this divide s further... we can look forward to 12 years of extreme liberalism from which the GOP as we know it may never recover.
Choose wisely.
This is my choice for President if we lose in 2008...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1904141/posts?page=1
Sarah Palin from Alaska. NOT Newt.
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