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Another possible answer is that maybe Osama bin Laden is already dead. It's hard to capture let alone kill someone who is already dead.

It is much easier to spin the truth...than to hide a lie (for all sides involved). And that is exactly what you're suggesting is/has been happening for years -

Of course, OBL may not be dead. But I know of no good reason to believe that he is not dead. Scheuer apparently doesn't either.

When your CinC, SecDef, CIA and numerous other SOF Commanders "go on record" telling you they believe someone to be alive (not dead).....You should read between the lines....(Just because you don't have "clearance" doesn't mean said Intel doesn't exist). I'll leave it there.

Here Scheuer assumes that not only is OBL alive but that Scheuer knows where OBL is living ("the Afghanistan-Pakistan border"). I don't know why OBL-is-alive people are so quick to assume they nevertheless know almost exactly where he is. Why couldn't he be in, oh, Yemen? Is there some law of physics that prevents OBL from going anywhere other than Afghanistan or Pakistan?

First off Scheuer is exactly right here - Most American's (most people around the world) have no clue to how brutal the terrain is within the Pak/Stan border regions - The Pak-Stan border stretches roughly 1,500 miles....Which is about the distance from Washington, D.C., to Denver......It includes every type of landscape from deserts to snow-capped mountains...(it is as close to a nightmare as can be in terms of running sustained operations)...It is completely lawless along virtually all of it to boot.

And for the record....One can know to a great certainty that someone is alive..and within a given "zone"...while at the same time not knowing exactly where they are at a given moment within said zone. These are two two completely viable but separate realities...

Best regards,

It is much easier to spin the truth...than to hide a lie (for all sides involved). And that is exactly what you're suggesting is/has been happening for years -

Not really. Under my scenario no one has to be "hiding the lie" except maybe a couple of Osama's closest confidantes and boy-toys. It may simply be that very very few people actually know the truth. I don't guess that anyone in our government knows the truth for sure either way, for example. So just to be clear, my theory doesn't involve them "hiding" anything.

That's a good point. And indeed, I believe that they believe OBL is alive.

It's just that I don't believe OBL is alive (absent some real evidence).

And by the way, the razor "if XYZ are saying it, since they see classified stuff, that makes it more likely to be true, so I should go with what they're saying even if I doubt it" didn't exactly work out well when it came to the Iraq/WMD question.

First off Scheuer is exactly right here - Most American's (most people around the world) have no clue to how brutal the terrain is within the Pak/Stan border regions -

I agree that the terrain in these regions is difficult (from everything I've heard), and it's probably also true that relatively few Americans actually know that. I just wasn't sure what relevance that has however to the question of OBL's fate/whereabouts.

.One can know to a great certainty that someone is alive..and within a given "zone"...while at the same time not knowing exactly where they are at a given moment within said zone. These are two two completely viable but separate realities...

I recall this to be your position, yes. And I don't dispute it. Of course it's possible to know someone is alive and in region X without having more detailed information regarding where in region X that person is.

I see no reason to believe that this is such a case, however. The government (or pundits anyway) have been insisting that OBL is pinned down to the "border region" for six years now. Why? Two possibilities:

1. they get an ongoing, more or less regular stream of intel which is high-probability proof that OBL is in the region. (Which makes it difficult to understand why they haven't caught him)

2. they don't get an ongoing stream. They got maybe good intel in, like, 2003-2004. And they therefore assume he's still alive, and still there, because... well, I don't understand why.

Again, if OBL really is alive, there's no law of physics which prohibits him from altering his location and EVEN from exiting BOTH Pakistan and Afghanistan. I'm always amazed and how many people (people who profess to believe OBL is a living human being) seem to never even contemplate the metaphysical possibility that OBL could be somewhere other than Afghanistan and/or Pakistan. Human beings are not landmarks. They can move! Best,