Scheuer supplies us no reason to believe this. The recent videotape was an obvious fake. So tell me absent pretending that videotape is real, what is the reason to believe that OBL is even alive?
The answers are several, each is compelling, and together they suggest that the U.S.-led coalition's military and intelligence forces are too over-tasked and spread far too thin to have more than a slim chance of capturing or killing bin Laden and his senior lieutenants.
Another possible answer is that maybe Osama bin Laden is already dead. It's hard to capture let alone kill someone who is already dead.
Of course, OBL may not be dead. But I know of no good reason to believe that he is not dead. Scheuer apparently doesn't either.
The first factor is the issue of topography. Few U.S. citizens or Europeans have any idea of what the terrain of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border looks like
Here Scheuer assumes that not only is OBL alive but that Scheuer knows where OBL is living ("the Afghanistan-Pakistan border"). I don't know why OBL-is-alive people are so quick to assume they nevertheless know almost exactly where he is. Why couldn't he be in, oh, Yemen? Is there some law of physics that prevents OBL from going anywhere other than Afghanistan or Pakistan?
I have a reason for making this point. People who insist that OBL is alive, and criticize our government for not having gotten him, seem to envision that all that is necessary is to search the Afghan.-Paki. border region more carefully.
I would just like to point out that this would not work if OBL is actually somewhere else. And people who assume OBL is alive can't, logically speaking, also assume he is a stationary object.
Bin Laden and his lieutenants appear to currently reside in a region dominated on both sides of the border by the Pashtun tribes.
Source?
and those who comment on the effort—including the present author—must admit that they are commenting and analyzing on the basis of informed speculation, common sense and historical precedent.
Indeed.
So again, what's the reason to think OBL draws breath?
Nevertheless, there are several good reasons that make Waziristan an unlikely top choice as a hiding spot for bin Laden and his lieutenants. [..] As a result, bin Laden would have to be unintelligent to stay in Waziristan in the face of his enemies' providing him with credible and detailed intelligence about their focus and intentions.
Actually this section is informative and I suppose that Scheuer has convinced me that, if OBL were alive, he wouldn't be in Waziristan.
My followup-question to the people who assume he's alive, then, would be this: in a more general sense the entire Western commentariat and establishment has made no secret of their belief that OBL lives more or less permanently "somewhere near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border". Doesn't it follow, then, that OBL would have to be equally stupid to stay there? Seriously, why can't he go to Iran, or Yemen, or...oh, I don't know, Nepal? What force prevents him from exiting the magical boundary of Pakistan/Afganistan?
While based on the region's history and informed speculation, the northeastern Afghan areas of Konar province and Nuristan and the adjacent Bajaur Agency in Pakistan lend themselves far better to bin Laden's security needs: [..]
Again, a pretty convincing case is made here that OBL would hide in one of these areas (if he were alive).
The fourth and final factor is the lack of resources devoted to the hunt. Given Afghanistan's sheer size and extraordinarily mountainous terrain, the current level of forces available to the U.S.-led coalition appears inadequate to perform all the tasks it has been assigned. In addition to eliminating bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and al-Qaeda, for example, the coalition's forces are being asked to keep President Karzai's government in power, rebuild the country's economy and transportation infrastructure, help organize a democratic political system, defeat the growing Taliban-led insurgency and eliminate the world's largest heroin industry.
Yes, our military is finite. This is clearly George Bush's fault. Also, if we hadn't invaded Iraq, we'd have an infinite military.
That force seems inadequate for the tasks assigned to it, and may well be outnumbered by the manpower involved in the growing Islamist insurgency.
Perhaps so. But the relevance of this military-finiteness is dubious to the issue of finding/capturing OBL, if either of the following is true:
1. OBL isn't in the "Pakistan/Afghanistan border area" at all,
2. OBL isn't alive in the first place.
and I don't think we have compelling evidence that both 1. and 2. are false. If 1. or 2. is true, then we could pour a 10 zillion man army into Afghanistan, and it wouldn't matter. People - like Scheuer- who insist/insinuate that this is what we need to do, are implicitly assuming that both 1. and 2. are false.
And they do not have good reason to do so.
p.s. Although, DevSix, I know your position on the issue differs from mine. Any updates by the way?
It is much easier to spin the truth...than to hide a lie (for all sides involved). And that is exactly what you're suggesting is/has been happening for years -
Of course, OBL may not be dead. But I know of no good reason to believe that he is not dead. Scheuer apparently doesn't either.
When your CinC, SecDef, CIA and numerous other SOF Commanders "go on record" telling you they believe someone to be alive (not dead).....You should read between the lines....(Just because you don't have "clearance" doesn't mean said Intel doesn't exist). I'll leave it there.
Here Scheuer assumes that not only is OBL alive but that Scheuer knows where OBL is living ("the Afghanistan-Pakistan border"). I don't know why OBL-is-alive people are so quick to assume they nevertheless know almost exactly where he is. Why couldn't he be in, oh, Yemen? Is there some law of physics that prevents OBL from going anywhere other than Afghanistan or Pakistan?
First off Scheuer is exactly right here - Most American's (most people around the world) have no clue to how brutal the terrain is within the Pak/Stan border regions - The Pak-Stan border stretches roughly 1,500 miles....Which is about the distance from Washington, D.C., to Denver......It includes every type of landscape from deserts to snow-capped mountains...(it is as close to a nightmare as can be in terms of running sustained operations)...It is completely lawless along virtually all of it to boot.
And for the record....One can know to a great certainty that someone is alive..and within a given "zone"...while at the same time not knowing exactly where they are at a given moment within said zone. These are two two completely viable but separate realities...
Best regards,