As they say, Bull markets are at their best when climbing a Wall of Worry.
All this gnashing of teeth over micro-issues (such as sub-prime and Lowes estimates) by the financial pundits leads me to believe that things are so smooth in reality that they have to search for negative issues on which to report.
MACRO financial numbers are at their best in years.
US multi-national companies are raking in the dough, much of it by selling US products and services overseas.
We’re in a great upswing in technology buying, and gasoline prices in the US are relatively stable and, yes, affordable.
($2.59 a gallon at my local gas station)
House prices might be sliding somewhat, but what the hey, they nearly doubled in the past five years.
The economy is unhealthy. Recessionary, maybe, but spooked nonetheless. A mix of actual factors (fuel costs, property tax increases, inavailability of equity credit, housing market downturn, etc) and perceived impingements (’08 election gloom and doom) have impacted spending.
I’ve been spending the past 6 months looking very closely at consumer markets, spending and pressure points, and can say very confidently that a great number of people are rewiring their buying habits and sitting on the sidelines spending-wise until they can make sense of their economic future. A lot of uncertainty out there and my primary data shows wide fluctuations in daily spending the coincide with gas price trends, news headlines, weather, etc. Seemingly little and irrational stimuli are affecting daily retail sales with a degree of volatility not seen in recent years.