The economy is unhealthy. Recessionary, maybe, but spooked nonetheless. A mix of actual factors (fuel costs, property tax increases, inavailability of equity credit, housing market downturn, etc) and perceived impingements (’08 election gloom and doom) have impacted spending.
I’ve been spending the past 6 months looking very closely at consumer markets, spending and pressure points, and can say very confidently that a great number of people are rewiring their buying habits and sitting on the sidelines spending-wise until they can make sense of their economic future. A lot of uncertainty out there and my primary data shows wide fluctuations in daily spending the coincide with gas price trends, news headlines, weather, etc. Seemingly little and irrational stimuli are affecting daily retail sales with a degree of volatility not seen in recent years.
Yes, there was about one month of uncertainty as lending/credit markets locked up due to angst over perceived subprime meltdown.
I has largely reversed, and credit is loosening up even as the DOW Industrial reaches near record numbers - AGAIN.
As for gas prices, everyone loves to complain, and the media certainly LOVES to harp on the 'high' gas price issue - but once again, reality shows that gasoline costs in America are LESS than just one year ago.
As for housing, the prices of leveled off (perhaps declined somewhat in some areas of the US) -- but that's a good thing.
Housing cannot go up 35-percent a year, year over year, without dire consequences.
Employment --- I live just north of Philly - and every contractor I know has a work schedule that is packed to the gills.
Jobs are going begging as businesses are so busy they have a hard time keeping up.
Companies are still producing record earnings, as nearly 70-percent of NYSE corps. BEAT P/E expectations during the last quarter, according to CNBC.
Yet people still love to be pessimestic. As evidenced by all these people who claim the financial world is about to come to an end.