Posted on 09/21/2007 2:21:56 PM PDT by knighthawk
Just when we thought we'd seen the back of one axis of evil, up pops another one to give us all sleepless nights.
The original axis of evil, as defined by President George W Bush in his State of the Union address in January 2002, consisted of Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
In fact, this axis was always an unlikely amalgam, conjured from the imagination of David Frum, the President's chief speechwriter at the time, who was casting around for a suitably demonic phrase to capture the gravity of the threat America was said to face from its combined enemies in the wake of the September 11 attacks.
The phrase made great headlines, but the reality was that Saddam Hussein's Iraq had no meaningful ties to Pyongyang or Teheran, other than a shared hatred of American military supremacy.
This summer it appeared that, with the stubborn exception of Iran, Mr Bush's axis of evil was on the wane: Saddam's regime no longer threatened the Gulf oil fields that fuel the West's economies, and the North Koreans appeared to be moving towards decommissioning the nuclear reactor that enabled it to test an atom bomb last autumn.
There were even signs that the serious economic hardship Iran was suffering because of its controversial nuclear programme had prompted the mullahs to have a serious rethink about pursuing the holy grail of uranium enrichment.
All that optimism seems wildly out of place following this week's revelation that the Israeli Air Force launched a daredevil attack on a remote region of northern Syria to destroy a top-secret military facility.
The precise nature of the target remains a matter of intense speculation, not least because the Israeli government has imposed a news black-out on the events of the night of September 6; and the Syrians, whose much-vaunted, Russian-built air defence systems failed to detect, let alone repel, the intruders, have been equally secretive.
But judging from the small scraps of information that have emerged, it would be fair to conclude that a new axis of evil is under construction, with Syria assuming Iraq's place. But unlike Iraq, Syria has well-documented links to the pariah regimes in North Korea and Teheran, and is cooperating with them on a range of projects, from the acquisition of long-range ballistic missiles to the development of chemical and nuclear weapons.
The failure to find ready-to-use stockpiles of WMD in Iraq following Saddam's overthrow may have seriously undermined the coalition's justification for invading Iraq, but no such doubts exist about Syria's capability.
Even before the Israeli raid, Syria had been identified by a number of intelligence and government agencies as possessing the largest and most advanced chemical weapons capability in the Middle East.
Moreover, unlike Saddam's Iraq, Syria has the delivery systems to make them a palpable threat.
Syria is believed to have 60 to 120 Scud C and 200 Scud B missiles with a range of 300 miles - more than sufficient to hit all Israel's major cities. The Syrians are also thought to have adapted the warheads for chemical weapons, and Washington formally accused Syria of test-firing chemical weapons in 2003.
Although the Scuds are Russian-made, the Syrians have relied on teams of North Korean experts to maintain them, as the North Korean Nodong missile is modelled on the Scud.
More recently, Damascus signed a mutual defence pact with Teheran to supply Iran's Shahab-3 missile system, which is an Iranian-made version of the Russian Scud and North Korean Nodong missile.
Syria and Iran first signed the defence pact in late 2005, but a decision to implement it was only taken last May following a meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which was chaired by former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Iranian engineers are in northern Syria building storage facilities for the new missiles, which are due to be shipped from Iran at the end of the year.
The Israelis were already taking a keen interest in these nefarious activities when their suspicions were further aroused by a North Korean cargo ship in the Syrian port of Tartous, which docked on September 3.
Officially the 1,700-ton Al-Hamed, which had reflagged itself as a South Korean vessel to avoid detection, was unloading cement. But according to reports circulating in Israel, Israeli intelligence officials, who are convinced Syria is trying to buy a nuclear device from North Korea, suspected the North Koreans might be attempting to off-load some nuclear technology and components to Syria before being required to surrender them to United Nations nuclear inspectors as part of the deal recently negotiated with Washington.
Whether these nuclear components - assuming that was the cargo - were destined for Syria or Iran remains contentious. Syria is known to have a small, Chinese-made nuclear research reactor at Dayr al-Hajar, on the outskirts of Damascus, but this is under constant supervision by UN inspectors. Iran, on the other hand, has misled the West about its nuclear programme, fuelling suspicions that it has a clandestine weapons project under way.
Reports from Israel suggest the Syrians have a secret nuclear compound at Dayr az-Zawr in the north of the country. Whether it was being used for research or for storing ballistic missiles is unclear: what is clear is that whatever it was at Dayr az-Zawr that concerned the Israelis no longer does - US satellites show a pile of rubble after eight Israeli F-15 bombers destroyed the site, just as they did in 1981 when they wiped out Saddam Hussein's Osirak nuclear reactor.
In taking out the Dayr az-Zawr complex the Israelis have not only demonstrated their capability to carry out long-range bombing missions undetected - Iran take note - but have also highlighted the extent to which Syria, North Korea and Iran the new axis of evil are cooperating to make the world a far more dangerous place than it was on September 11.
Ping
This is Crap.
Iraq had Scuds too. Used them to kill Americans. They are not high technology, being just a bit less sophisticated than the V-2 of 70 years ago.
Iraq had chemical weapons, and used them to kill Iraqis and Iranians.
Iraq outsourced its chemical weapons to Syria. It outsourced its nuclear research to Libya. Biological weapons are not usually stockpiled.
Israel once again does what needs doing.
L
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High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. or WOT [War on Terror]
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This article made me laugh. On one hand there was acknowledgment that there is real danger here. On the other hand there were so many liberal bumper sticker talking points sprinkled in it was pathetic to see this writer do his Bush Derangement Syndrome gymnastics.
Take the quote above for instance. Syria links to Iran? How can that be? Liberals assured me that Sunni would never cooperate with Shia? But here it is Sunni Syria not only working with Shia Iran but North Korea too. So at least some of Bush' axis of evil is dangerous but oh yeah... those oil wells are safe for the West... 'cuz Saddam would never cooperate with Sunni Syria, er... Shia Iran... er... well Bush sucks. :-)
There's pathetic rationalizing in here but at least this writer is acknowledging a danger. At least this week. Those goal posts move daily. Of course none of this ever would have happened if Bush hadn't invaded Iraq. Yeah, that's it. Sure. ;-)
Exactly. And all it would have taken was ONE nuclear warhead smuggled from NK (or from Pakistan through the AQ Khan network) via Syria to Saddam, placed on a Scud or an al-Hussein missile, to unleash megadeath.
The idiots in the drive-by media never consider that such a dictator won't wait years to produce WMD, when he can just buy them.
“daredevil attack on a remote region”
The writer does not understand the difference between cold blooded, professional, killers and stuntmen......
Based on past IAF performance, I believe even the drop tank impact areas were preplanned.
Mess with the best, die like the rest.
OTOH, whatever they took out, I hope it *was* with F-15Is, since a little piece of that, as well as the other F-15E varients, is MINE, I helped design it. It would warm the cockles of my heart to know that it was used to sneak up on Assad's A$$holes so as to eliminate their ability to carry out their evil intentions, either on the Israelis, or on us.
Has anyone bothered to check if Syria’s WMD’s have a “Made in Iraq” sticker?
Israeli general Ari Aetor has credited the success of the attack to the inclusion of the El Gato Gizmo to the raiders aircraft.
General Aetor was quoted as saying “dem FReepers be bad moe foes. Shiiiiiikza!”
Ping
Syria’s Chemical weapons date back to the 60’s and were sold by the Soviets. Nasser in Egypt used his in the Yemen Civil War.
They’d better. Their survival as a nation depends on it.
Agree.
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