Yes an no.
The case for yes:
1) If the Austrian had not entered the race, Davis would not have been recalled.
2) Conservatives only represented about 15% of the voting electorate in 2003. McClintock would have been forced to make significant concessions to achieve a plurality.
The case for no:
1) Bustamante wasn't competitive, regardless of public polling, because of the ingrained, cultural bias in the electorate.
2) Had McClintock been the chief Republican candidate, the Democrats would have entered a high profile, non Hispanic candidate and split the Democrat vote.
3) The electorate was ready for a fiscal change and whomever the Democrats entered would have been perceived as SOS.
As things turned out the Democrats and the Republicans were both winners. The Republicans, who early-on wanted nothing to do with the Recall, got rid of Davis and the Democrats got another liberal in the executive.
Thats simply the best analysis I’ve ever seen on this topic.
Thanks, nice job.