Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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Posted on 09/17/2007 2:37:23 PM PDT by Canticle_of_Deborah
I haven’t had much to say about the overall state of the Republican race lately. I’ll cop to a little laziness here. This thing is just so darned hard to read. Anyone who argues that this isn’t jump ball between some permutation of Giuliani/Romney/Thompson is probably lying to you. If there is anything this campaign has proven, it’s that this race is a marathon not a sprint, and making sweeping predictions based on short-term momentum shifts means you’ll be eating crow the next week. As if we could forget: McCain is the frontrunner! Romney is at 3%! Rudy is doomed because of his Houston Baptist speech! And a week ago, Fred is doomed because of laziness/staff bloodletting!
Let me take a step back here. Tune out all the noise, and just ask: What are the central facts of this campaign that are likely to remain central facts in January? Put another way: Begin with the end in mind. What are the basic claims that each of the candidates are likely to press in the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire and beyond? I believe there are three.
1. Rudy’s Electability
Rudy’s electability argument is so central to his candidacy (and his supporters hope, so powerful) that it’s hard to talk about it without giving it the adjective, “nuclear.” The conventional wisdom about how Rudy wins is this: He underperforms in the first few primaries and caucuses, and then, back against the wall, someone breaks the glass, presses a big red button with the word “Hillary” on it, everything suddenly comes into focus, and the field is cleared.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
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—snip—
2. Romney’s Early State Strength
Mitt Romney’s strength in the early states remains a highly salient point. Right now, Romney is the only candidate with a clear, plausible path to the nomination. It’s one that basically boils down to Win Iowa, Win New Hampshire, Win Michigan, Win Nevada, and hope that by that point you’re running #1 in the national polls and are competitive with Hillary thanks to an injection of positive name ID.
Because Romney’s strength is pretty much all out there right now, the risk of failure is greater. If there is any team in politics that can pull it off, Romney’s can. But the risk is enormous. If he loses New Hampshire, it’s over.
The closeness of the race leaves no margin for error for any of the candidates, and that includes Giuliani and Thompson. The only difference is that Romney starts out with insanely high expectations in these early contests.
—snip—
—snip—
3. The South Will Rise (Again)
Fred has not been central to this analysis so far. That’s because, despite his phenomenal poll numbers putting him within striking distance of frontrunner status, he lacks an instrument for converting these poll numbers into primary victories.
How so? Currently, the only early states he polls well in are South Carolina and Florida, both below the Mason-Dixon line. As far as early states go, they are well to the back of the line. Fred would need to dramatically step up is game in Iowa to weather an expected third (or worse) in New Hampshire. As things stand today, the first few dozen news cycles once the voting starts do not stand to be kind to Fred Thompson — unless he manages to jumble the equation somehow.
And yet… the South’s playing a small role in the primary process would be, well, odd. The South Carolina primary (where Fred is favored) has traditionally had the last word on the nomination. It seems difficult to imagine the South not playing a major role this time. And, to put it bluntly, it does not seem to be in the DNA of most country-Western conservatives to choose a smooth-talking Massachusetts governor over a folksy Southerner. Something just doesn’t jive there, at a very basic, fundamental level.
—snip—
Neither of this group gets my vote. GOP has no chance of winning with these RINOs.
I wish the media would stop pushing these guys, and give us analysis of all candidates. I guess only the liberal-globalists get the media play’
Ping!
With no clear front runner and a crowded field of top tiers, the early state strategy is the big winner. Momentum and organization will be key for undecideds trying to break through the differences between the top candidates. I like Mitt’s chances right now.
With no clear front runner and a crowded field of top tiers, the early state strategy is the big winner. Momentum and organization will be key for undecideds trying to break through the differences between the top candidates. I like Mitt’s chances right now.
Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
WARNING: If you wish to join, be aware that this ping list is EXTREMELY active.
I’m not allowed to post directly to COD. It makes her nervous.
Well, *I* love you.
You can post to me whenever you want. :p
Fred seems to think it’s a walk-a-thon
By the way, have you seen this photo of Fred?
It’s awesome.
Looks like people had best get out of his way. :)
I’ll be glad to pass her a message for you. :-)
I think Rudy is way oversold. The only thing I agree with is that the Republican nominee will be Fred, Romney, or Rudy.
I thought it was a pretty fair analysis. He does seem to be pushing for Rudy a little more but he addressed all the candidates pluses and minuses.
It’s hard these days to get objective discussion, especially here on FR.
The guy loses his credibility here. The fact is that Rudy Giuliani is not that "electable," and his nomination would alienate much of the Republican base. He may alienate so many important Republican voters that Republicans would lose more seats in Congress because many people would stay home. If Rudy Giuliani were really electable and good for the party, Fred Thompson wouldn't be in the race at all. If the Giuliani campaign thinks that it can press a magic button and win the nomination because people are afraid of Hillary, his campaign is deluded. If anything, pressing that button may stampede the party into nominating Fred Thompson.
Fred Thompson's strategy is simple.
In spite of the talk about "winning states," much of the primary contest will be about winning Congressional districts. In most states, the winner of each Congressional district wins three delegates. The overall winner of the state may win another group of delegates in a winner-take-all manner, or those other delegates may be awarded proportionally to all candidates receiving over a certain percentage (typically 10%) of the vote. New York is a winner-take-all state for all of the delegates, but outside New York, Fred Thompson doesn't need to win many non-Southern states. California has plenty of "red state" counties outside Los Angeles, San Francisco, and a few other cities. These counties make many Congressional districts that have a fairly conservative outlook. Even in those districts that don't have enough Republicans to win the Congressional seat, the overall Republican outlook may be moderately conservative.
Fred Thompson's strategy will be to win the traditional southern states where he has a natural advantage and pick up a decent number of delegates in Florida, California, rural Michigan, and rural parts of other February 5 states. He won't win enough delegates to win the nomination on February 5, but he can be narrowly in first place or in a close second place. At that point, he'll go into the later primaries and ask people to compare his record to the record of whichever candidate is closest to him. Personally, I don't think Mr. Thompson's record is all that good, but his record isn't all that bad either. Faced with certain disaster in a Giuliani candidacy and the uncertainties of a Mitt Romney candidacy, the GOP may give the nomination to Fred Thompson. In addition, if John McCain lasts long enough to have delegates, the nomination may go all the way to the convention. In that case, Fred Thompson may win in a deal for John McCain's delegates.
Mitt Romney's strategy is the most perilous. There won't be weeks of "buzz" between the early primaries and the later primaries. If Florida voters have already made up their minds before Mitt Romney wins the early primaries, those early primaries will be meaningless. If not, Mitt Romney will need to do very well in Florida. He will then need to pursue a strategy similar to Fred Thompson's except that his hope is to pick up delegates here and there in Southern states that will be going to Fred Thompson overall. He'll also need to win most delegates from Michigan and persuade the GOP not to penalize Michigan for holding its primary too early.
Bill
~”If Florida voters have already made up their minds before Mitt Romney wins the early primaries, those early primaries will be meaningless.”~
I agree. Romney needs to win FL as -part- of his momentum, not -because- of his momentum.
IF he does win IA, NH, and FL (with scattered others), then I think his strength going into Super Tuesday will be undeniable.
If Romney can pull off in FL what he has in IA and NH, he will have certainly earned the nomination, IMO.
I’m watching this very closely:
http://www.pollster.com/08-FL-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
At this point, Romney’s the only candidate with consistent progress. He needs to accelerate his progress, but if we imagine the lines on that chart extending as 2008 approaches, Romney’s lead in FL is certainly plausible by Feb. Note that recent polls put the undecided category at 20-30%. All those voters are up for grabs, but the candidate with the best organization has the best shot at getting the lion’s share of them. In FL, given the conscription of the Bush political machine into the his camp, that is far and away Romney.
If he can pull it off, I think there will be no stopping his nomination.
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