Republicans 2008: Giuliani 24%, Thompson at 23% (Fred up 7 points, Rudy down 3 since August)

Angus-Reid Global Monitor ^ | September 15, 2007

[2ndDivisionVet]

The official entry of actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson has affected the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by American Research Group. 24 per cent of respondents would vote for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani in a 2008 primary, while 23 per cent would back Thompson.

Support for Thompson increased by seven points since August. Arizona senator John McCain is third with 14 per cent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with nine per cent. Support is lower for former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, California congressman Duncan Hunter, and Texas congressman Ron Paul.

Yesterday, in an op-ed published in the Washington Times, Tancredo criticized the proponents of the "cynical policy of immigration non-enforcement", stating, "Whether motivated by compassion, ideology, or crass political calculation, (it) represents indirect complicity in the crimes committed by illegal immigrants in their jurisdictions."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Republican Presidential Preference

Sept. 2007 | Aug. 2007 | Jul. 2007

Rudy Giuliani 24% 27% 30%

Fred Thompson 23% 16% 17%

John McCain 14% 13% 14%

Mitt Romney 9% 16% 10%

Newt Gingrich 6% 7% 10%

Mike Huckabee 4% 3% 1%

Tancredo 2% 1% 1%

Sam Brownback 1% 1% 1%

Duncan Hunter 1% 1% 1%

Ron Paul 1% 1% 1%

Tommy Thompson n.a. 1% 1%

Jim Gilmore n.a. -- 1%

Chuck Hagel n.a. -- 1%

Undecided 15% 14% 11%

Source: American Research Group Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican primary voters, conducted from Sept. 9 to Sept. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Startling numbers, if accurate.

[SolidWood]

Rasmussen has Thompson in the lead.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Rudy only leads by 1 point (statistical tie) in the CN poll as well...

[Doofer]

Startling numbers, if accurate.

This has to be more than a post announcement bump if accurate...

[Darkwolf377]

Ron Paul 1% 1% 1%

Paul supporter: "Woohoo! 3%!"

[Darkwolf377]

Ron Paul 1% 1% 1%

Paul supporter: "Woohoo! 3%!"

[Darkwolf377]

Double post = 6% for Paul!!!!!!

[LibFreeOrDie]

Catch the trend:

[2ndDivisionVet]

I assume that Dr. Congressman Ron Paul is so high up on that chart that you can’t even see him, am I right?

[LibFreeOrDie]

I’m sure it must be a conspiracy to leave him off the chart! ;^)

If you want to see the trend for each of the 12 Republican candidates, scroll down to the bottom of this page, then click on the chart to zoom it:

http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Rep-Pres-Primary.php

[Doofer]

I still wonder why Gingrich is included in these polls?

[Reagan Man]

More good news for conservatives.

Fred08!

[LibFreeOrDie]

Looks like the chart I posted tracks anyone polling at least 3%. Newt’s over 3%.

The second chart I linked to tracks the ones doing less than 3%.

[Prokopton]

I still wonder why Gingrich is included in these polls?

So the polls wouldn't show that Fred is significantly ahead of Rudy, like the credible Rasmussen polls show?

[rogue yam]

Double post = 6% for Paul!!!!!!

I see 12% and a cover-up.

[Darkwolf377]

Nah, he's just holding back to fool everyone else.

See, Fred entered late to surprise everyone; Ron is doing him one better and telling his supporters to support other people until the NH primary, when they'll come out and bring him to 171%!

[counterpunch]

Yesterday, in an op-ed published in the Washington Times, Tancredo criticized the proponents of the “cynical policy of immigration non-enforcement”, stating, “Whether motivated by compassion, ideology, or crass political calculation, (it) represents indirect complicity in the crimes committed by illegal immigrants in their jurisdictions.”

OK, but what does this non sequiter have to do with the poll?
Is this a little politicking on the part of reporter?

 

[Darkwolf377]

The page you linked to is interesting. Giuliani is well ahead of all but Thompson, when you look at the trends in the polls.

Romney doesn't seem to be catching fire as some here would have you believe.

Will Republicans have to decide to go with non-conservative Rudy as a way of beating HRC, or roll the dice and go with the more conservative Thompson, who seems to appeal beyond the base more than Romney?

[Doofer]

So the polls wouldn't show that Fred is significantly ahead of Rudy, like the credible Rasmussen polls show?

I know I saw a poll from one of the southern states recently that for the first time left Gingrich out of their polling data and almost all of Gingrich's numbers were picked up by Thompson, so there my be some truth in what you say.

[Doofer]

ping