Posted on 09/12/2007 2:33:05 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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Israel has kept up a careful policy of silence over the accusations
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During the early hours of last Thursday morning, a number of Israeli jets appear to have entered Syrian air-space from the Mediterranean Sea, possibly penetrating deep into the country.
Later unidentified drop tanks, which may have contained fuel for the planes, were found on Turkish soil near the Syrian border, indicating perhaps the Israeli jets' exit route.
The Syrian authorities are livid. They say that the aircraft were driven off but that they fired their weaponry into a deserted area.
The implication is that the planes effectively dumped their munitions so better to manoeuvre during their escape.
The Syrian government has briefed Western diplomats and complained to the United Nations.
But there have been no images of the empty countryside where the weapons are alleged to have landed.
Israeli sources are saying nothing.
Long-standing contacts are uncharacteristically silent, noting only that Israel's military censorship on this subject is as tight as they can ever remember.
Mood of satisfaction
From Washington has come some partial illumination of the shadows.
US officials indicate that at least one target in northern Syria was hit and despite the Israeli silence there does seem to be a perceptible mood of satisfaction in Israel; a sense that what they wanted to achieve was carried out.
So what actually went on during the early hours of Thursday morning? Why were Israeli jets over Syria at all?
And if they indeed released weapons, what were they firing at?
Initially experts suggested that this might simply have been an over-flight to trigger air defence radars and gather electronic intelligence.
Such a probe might be linked to new air defence missiles reportedly supplied to Syria by the Russians.
Other pundits wondered if a potential strike path to Iran was being tested out; though a southern route here into US-controlled Iraqi air-space would be more logical.
And neither option would explain why such aircraft might be armed with air to ground weapons.
North Korea link
As far as likely targets of any attack go there are two broad suggestions.
One, cited by the New York Times newspaper quoting a US source, suggests that the attack was in some way linked to North Korea.
The former US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, raised the possibility that Syria is sheltering technology or materials relating to North Korea's nuclear programme.
When I spoke to Mr Bolton in London just the other day he strongly defended this thesis though he would not be drawn on the reliability of his sources.
Another suggestion is that maybe a missile store or factory with weaponry heading to Hezbollah in Lebanon was hit.
Israel has long complained that the Damascus government is at the very least turning a blind eye to such weapons supplies coming from Iran.
Maybe Israel decided to send the Syrian government a message that it would understand.
Muted response
What is intriguing is that the response of both the Syrian and Israeli governments has been muted - in the Israeli case largely mute.
The Syrians, while angry, are clearly embarrassed that something may have occurred that they failed to prevent.
Israel and Syria remain technically at war
Israel's deterrent capacity, weakened by the summer 2006 war in Lebanon, is partially restored.
But an explanation too is needed for Israel's silence.
Maybe it does not want to over-play its hand.
This apparent raid comes after a summer of tensions between the two countries which some feared might lead to open warfare.
During the past few weeks tensions have markedly declined.
Indeed prior to the bombing mission, if that is what it was, Israel reportedly sent messages to Syria via an intermediary, indicating that it was scaling down its forces on the Golan Heights.
Was this an effort to ensure that this "raid" was not interpreted by the Syrians as a prelude to a large-scale Israeli attack?
There are still more questions than answers in this affair. More information is slowly seeping out.
But in many ways it is remarkable that in an age of instant news and the worldwide web spreading information almost at the speed of light, there can still be episodes like this that remain shrouded in so many layers of mystery.
But it sounds intelligent with a British accent.
fyi....kind of a summary....
The implication is that the planes effectively dumped their munitions so better to manoeuvre during their escape.
LOL! The BBC doesn’t understand a thing about the IAF. Also, this whole report is couched in a sense of a great mystery when it’s no such thing. The Israelis hit a nuke site in Syria and the Syrians can’t do a damn thing about it because they were found out and punished. Not to mention embarrased because they never knew the Israelis were there.
Arabs lying; arabs humiliated. Whoever heard of such a thing?
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Did the IAF do some checking of the air defense capabilities that Syria and Iran have bought from the Rushkies....very interesting.....
You can bet your bottom buck that Washington was informed beforehand and that our “spooks” have satellite pics.
bttt
might simply have been an over-flight to trigger air defence radars and gather electronic intelligence. Such a probe might be linked to new air defence missiles reportedly supplied to Syria by the Russians....or perhaps it might have been to destroy same on the ground, before they're deployed. Thanks Ernest.
Not very good, are they.
Yet another russian “wonder weapon” is proven to be a piece of junk. This will hurt russian sales for a long time. I am sure Putin is really pissed.
Ha ha ha!
“LOL! The BBC doesn’t understand a thing about the IAF. Also, this whole report is couched in a sense of a great mystery when it’s no such thing. The Israelis hit a nuke site in Syria and the Syrians can’t do a damn thing about it because they were found out and punished. Not to mention embarrased because they never knew the Israelis were there.”
Big hole in the ground. Anyone want to bet Iraq’s WMD was found by Israel and also found out they were planning on sending it to Hezbollah.
:’) Yeah, either they don’t work, or the Syrians lost them in the raid. Of course, they may not have been deployed yet; also, it’s not unheard of for the Russians to ship weapons without ammo, or ammo without weapons — that’s one of the quirks that helped Israel during October 1973.
You mean Congress hasn't banned satellite pics yet?
No one said the SAMs that Syria bought are wonder weapons. All I got was that Syria purchased the Pantsyr-S1E anti-aircraft system which admittedly are advertised as pretty good, but all weapons have their limitations. If the Israeli F-16s (or F-15s, I haven’t heard which it was) just stayed out of range to test the Syrian response—after all, they are short range SAMs— then they obviously weren;t going to score any hits no matter how good they were.
Furthermore, even if Syria has received them and had time to deploy them, I don’t think they would’ve had much time to receive training on how to use them just yet. In addition, you have the fairly consistent Arab problems with training and tactics. Not to mention, considering who their mentors were, I’d expect the SAM operators to need to get permission to fire from several rungs higher up the chain of command, especially given the volatility of the situation.
Also, I doubt that the Izzies would have actually destroyed the Syrian air defenses since that would be an obvious act of war, and as we all know, Israel isn’t allowed to do that, even if Syria is supporting Hezbollah and Hamas.
I’m not saying Russian weapons are the best, but I certainly wouldn’t underestimate them. Also, you also have to account for the fact that their defense industry is just getting back into the swing of things after losing the Cold War—many of the designs that they are fielding as new are designs they were developing nearly 20 years ago. Give them time, I’m sure they’ll more or less catch up if their population decline doesn’t ruin them first.
Only to you.
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