[AdvisorB]

Claire I think Syria is the middle east equivalent of Yugoslavia circa 1990. I believe that it is a unified state in name only. The end result of natural historic forces will result in a severely truncated Syria. Or a number of little syrias with the kurds spinning off in the northeast, the allawites in the northwest, the sunnies in a syrian rump state with Damascus as the capital, and the Druze in the south possibly spinning off to lebanon, but most likely gobbled up by Jordan. The glue holding this modern day Yugoslavia together is the al-Assad allawite mafia, and a war with Israel will speed up the natural centrifugal forces. While this unfolding scenario is fraught with unpleasant surprises, it would most likely benefit Israel, Iraq and the West, as a number of little syrias is preferable to one big unstable alawite ruled bully.

Just my humble opinion.

[Mr. Lucky]

That’s a humble opinion you can be proud of.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

I don’t think Syria is comparable with the former Yugoslavia. There are similarities, but the divide in Yugoslavia goes back to when the Eastern and Western Roman Empires divided, and Serbia became Orthodox and Croatia and Slovenia Catholic. Syrians are Muslims and while there are ethnic as sectarian differences, the Assads are smaller versions of Saddam and it would take the demise of Assad to cause Syria to go the fate of Iraq.