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Granite Write-Off: Is Thompson even trying to win New Hampshire?
National Review ^ | September 8, 2007 | Andrew Cline

Posted on 09/08/2007 2:51:30 PM PDT by PJ-Comix

The question: When Fred Thompson opted to announce his presidential candidacy from the comfort of Jay Leno’s arm chair Wednesday night — instead of participating in the Republican debate in New Hampshire that same evening — did that hurt his campaign in New Hampshire?

The answer: What campaign in New Hampshire?

“I think we’ll be getting staff within a week,” Thompson adviser Dan Hughes, a former Republican state representative from New Castle, told me Friday. “I think there’ll be an announcement within the next few days.”

Thompson not only has no paid staff in New Hampshire, he has no organization. He has two advisers, Hughes and former Reagan administration official Gerry Carmen of Manchester. But Carmen is known to spend a lot of his time in Washington, and Hughes has been the one carrying Thompson’s water in New Hampshire this summer.

It was Hughes who organized Thompson’s first visit to the state in June.

“I told everybody he was running and they didn’t believe me,” he said. “But now they do.”

Thompson’s no-show at Wednesday night’s debate unquestionably hurt him with a lot of New Hampshire Republicans. The debate was co-sponsored by FOX News and the state GOP. A lot of Republicans felt that by skipping an official party-sponsored debate Thompson was rudely dismissing the entire state party. So in addition to disappointing Granite Staters in general, he offended Republican insiders in particular.

(Carmen and Hughes got tickets to the debate, but they did not get passes to the spin room afterwards.)

But hurting the pride of top Republicans is the least of Thompson’s worries in New Hampshire. If he commits to campaigning here and impresses Republican and independent voters (New Hampshire’s primaries are open) in the next five months, he certainly could overcome this offense. But to do that he has to have a ground game. New Hampshire is all about the ground game. Thompson has nothing. Nor does he seem too concerned about getting one.

This late in the game, an impressively organized campaign would have had staff in place, or at least announced, the day after the official declaration of candidacy. Thompson’s staff might take a week to get here.

I asked Hughes if he had signs ready to put up and bumper stickers ready to hand out.

“I have some bumper stickers from the committee that was before Friends of Fred, whatever the hell that was,” he said. “We haven’t been actually even trying to get them out. You really can’t be running a campaign if you’re testing the waters, and we haven’t.”

Hughes does have a database of supporters. But it cannot be a big list. At the debate, there were exactly two “Fredheads” holding signs outside the arena. They told me there were a lot of Thompson backers in New Hampshire — “100 of us.”

How is Thompson going to drum up more support in New Hampshire, where he consistently ranks third in the polls, a good 15 to 20 points behind Mitt Romney? Apparently not by campaigning here. Thompson is doing exactly three events in New Hampshire this weekend. When will he return?

“He’ll be back I know in October, but I don’t know the schedule,” Hughes said.

It is an axiom of political campaigning that candidates improve with experience. As Hughes acknowledged, “The more you’re out there, the better you get.” In New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani has spent the past six months becoming a much better campaigner. John McCain is hitting his stride again and Mitt Romney, Wednesday night’s debate performance aside, is an outstanding campaigner. Thompson, on the other hand, is rusty and almost entirely untested in New Hampshire. Nationally, most of his early performance reviews have been abysmal. So although he enters the race at the traditional starting point — around Labor Day weekend — he is way behind in fundraising, organization and practice.

He also has the distinct disadvantage that most of New Hampshire’s top-flight Republican operatives are committed to other campaigns. Even the big-name endorsements are being snatched up, though there are plenty left to be had.

If Thompson plans to win New Hampshire, he enters the contest at a serious disadvantage. It is not an insurmountable one. He has five months, and Granite Staters are famous for not making up their minds until days before, if not the day of, the primary. But it will take time for him to build an organization here and get to the point where his campaign is really competitive. The other candidates have a big head start, and Thompson does not seem to have a natural base of support in New Hampshire. He polls worse here than he does nationally. Most NH Republicans I’ve talked with say Thompson needs to essentially camp out in New Hampshire for the next five months if he wants to win it.

However, if Thompson does not plan to win New Hampshire, none of this really matters. If he plans, say, to let the eight other candidates duke it out in Iowa and New Hampshire, leaving one winner to take him on in South Carolina and Florida — southern states where he would have a natural advantage over a Northeastern Republican like Giuliani or Romney — then he doesn’t need to pay more than token attention to New Hampshire.

So far, token attention is all New Hampshire has received from Fred Thompson.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; electionpresident; elections; fred; fredthompson; mittromney; newhampshire; nh2008; romney
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To: asparagus
11. Ann Coulter (not for Fred)

12. Michelle Malkin (not for Fred)

13. Federal Marriage Amendment

14. Tort reform

etc.

61 posted on 09/08/2007 8:20:08 PM PDT by redgirlinabluestate (I am sick and tired of the holier than thous.)
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To: Constantine XIII

On the contrary, I think Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina’s importance are a fabulous thing about our electoral process.

It creates a few small, manageable pockets of informed citizenry that see it as their duty to choose the next President. The people there know the issues. They meet and talk with the candidates in intimate settings.

Have you seen how misinformed the general public is about the stances of the candidates? I saw a recent poll that showed that 47% of likely Republican voters didn’t know that Rudy Giuliani was pro-choice. Try that in New Hampshire, and the story will be remarkably different.

These smaller, manageable states create the opportunity for candidates to network, to form alliances, to organize their campaigns. They’re excellent tests for the campaign that lies ahead.

At the end of the day, I’d much more value the opinion of New Hampshire over California, Tennessee, Georgia, or Virginia. And I’ve lived in all of the above states save New Hampshire. And I’d take South Carolina over what the rest of the nation has been saying, too, frankly.

And if you combine the 3 to shrink regional differences, well, there you go. I don’t think you can create a much better system.


62 posted on 09/08/2007 8:22:53 PM PDT by CheyennePress (Tennesseeans for Romney)
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To: asparagus
Speaking of SC. Good omen?


Mary and Craig Romney on Romney St. in Charleston, South Carolina! Hmmmm.


Mitt Mobile in South Carolina

http://fivebrothers.mittromney.com/

_________________

I know. I know. There's probably a Thompson St. too! Is there a Giuliani Rd. though?

63 posted on 09/08/2007 8:26:38 PM PDT by redgirlinabluestate (I am sick and tired of the holier than thous.)
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To: redgirlinabluestate

So will we end up adding Free Republic to the list once Mitt wins the nomination? Ah! Those FreePers used to be conservative, but now they’re shilling for a RINO!


64 posted on 09/08/2007 8:43:39 PM PDT by asparagus
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To: asparagus

LOL!


65 posted on 09/08/2007 8:46:18 PM PDT by redgirlinabluestate (I am sick and tired of the holier than thous.)
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To: redgirlinabluestate

Which will inevitably lead to “the Great Fred Purge” of 2008. :-)


66 posted on 09/08/2007 8:52:06 PM PDT by asparagus
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To: asparagus

Now THAT’S funny. :-)


67 posted on 09/08/2007 8:56:29 PM PDT by redgirlinabluestate (I am sick and tired of the holier than thous.)
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To: asparagus

Great list!


68 posted on 09/09/2007 12:30:44 AM PDT by Canticle_of_Deborah (Catholic4Mitt)
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To: asparagus
Nobody likes me, everybody hates me,

It's not that we don't like him, we want the BEST ticket to defeat Hillary. I liked George Allen but, as it turned out, he wasn't the best person to win the nomination. Luckily we found this out last year before it was too late.

69 posted on 09/09/2007 5:07:46 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Join the DUmmie FUnnies PING List for the FUNNIEST Blog on the Web)
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To: PJ-Comix

New Hampshire is now irrelevant.

Fred chose to preach to the heathens rather than the choir. The choir will hear many sermons while every opportuntiy to preach to masses of the heathens must be capitalized on.

The margin of votes that win the election will come from heathens, not the choir.


70 posted on 09/09/2007 5:17:58 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Hillary's color is yellow.....how appropriate)
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To: redgirlinabluestate

After reading several hundred comments on the latest Fred thread regarding Fred’s alleged womanising, we can add #15 to our list of conservative principles/people now abandoned by FredHeads.

15. Adultery

Judging from some of the responses, as long as Fred isn’t gay, his extra-marital dalliances make him “more of a man”. Good thing Fred isn’t gay, because we would have another item to add to the list.


71 posted on 09/09/2007 6:50:40 PM PDT by asparagus
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To: shrinkermd
What a total bunch of hooey.

and can't raise money.

Amazing how people that consider themselves freepers fall for MSM lies and even perpetuate them. To remind you Fred garnered over $3 million in about 6 weeks. The Duncan RudyMitt's would give their eyeteeth for such a rate of fundraising.

His service in the US Senate was not exceptional and did not validate him as a leader.

Only to a Hunter or Romney/Rudy supporter. Fred spent a lot of time, energy and votes preventing terrible legislation from going forward.

As for the lymphoma, do you seriously expect us to bellieve that a)Fred is lying, b) his doctors are lying and c) his wife is lying? They are all lying, despite Fred saying that he's never experienced EVEN ONE SYMPTOM from the condition and that he certainly wouldn't be running if he thought there was any question his health wouldn't permit it?

utter nonsense

72 posted on 09/09/2007 7:09:36 PM PDT by prairiebreeze ( PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: Soul Seeker

Wow CBS’s rating must REALLY be in the toilet if they had to resort to telling the truth about the situation in Iraq.

:^)

Fully agree with you about FoxNews. Even Brit Hume’s panel is a 12 minute joke more times than not anymore.


73 posted on 09/09/2007 7:12:17 PM PDT by prairiebreeze ( PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: prairiebreeze

Barak Obama raised 3 million yesterday at the Oprah party.


74 posted on 09/09/2007 7:16:08 PM PDT by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd

LOL!


75 posted on 09/09/2007 7:19:19 PM PDT by prairiebreeze ( PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: PJ-Comix
Nationally, most of his early performance reviews have been abysmal.

>70 posts, and nobody rises to defend Fred against this accusation?

Does that mean that Fred's early performances have been abysmal? Entering late without organization or money, FDT especially needs to immediately impress in person and on television. If he can't do that, there is nothing to base his candidacy on. The Fred phenomenon will be, as is a comet, remarkable but transitory.

76 posted on 09/09/2007 7:32:37 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: GeronL
The man declared two days ago and he gets berated for not having a ‘ground game’ yet.

It's to be expected. Thompson had a summer-long "honeymoon" from the press, compared to the running candidates. If he wasn't getting his "ground game" in place before his announcement, what was he doing?

I am still open to Thompson as a candidate, and look forward to him clarifying positions and policies. But I have been unimpressed by his campaign style. Lots of sizzle, little substance so far.

No doubt I shall now be blasted about how brilliant his non-running running style has been, but it reminds me too much of the way Arnold ran. I've been in the advertising game and know how it works. I don't vote for celebrity image and bumper sticker slogans. He can win my vote with openness, honesty and detailed exposition of his policy ideas and how they contrast with what his opponents offer; he can't win it with "themes".

77 posted on 09/09/2007 8:17:19 PM PDT by LexBaird (Behold, thou hast drinken of the Aide of Kool, and are lost unto Men.)
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To: asparagus

#16 for the list - going to church.


78 posted on 09/12/2007 5:24:38 PM PDT by Canticle_of_Deborah (Catholic4Mitt)
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To: aroostook war

NR == Country Club Republicans........ East Coast Elites .... Potomac Fever


79 posted on 09/12/2007 5:26:40 PM PDT by stocksthatgoup (Number 1 FredHead)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

I was about to add that! LOL! Like my new tagline?


80 posted on 09/12/2007 5:44:15 PM PDT by asparagus (its not just for breakfast anymore)
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