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“An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth and the killer is killed.”
He seems to be alluding to past references of reciprocal killing, wherein each Muslim killed by U.S. action (real or imagined) counts towards their allotment of dead Americans. If one goes back to the nuclear fatwa (since bin Laden DID tell us to read Scheuer):
Shaykh al-Fahd first cites three examples from the Koran in which God says that Muslims may respond reciprocally for attacks made on them. "Anyone who considers America's aggressions against Muslims and their lands during the past decades," al-Fahd wrote, "will conclude that striking her is permissible merely on the rule of treating as one has been treated. Some brothers have totaled the number of Muslims killed directly or indirectly by their weapons and come up with a figure of nearly 10 million."
Further:
Shaykh al-Fahd next argues that large civilian casualties are acceptable if they result from an attack meant to defeat an enemy, and not an attack aimed only at killing the innocent.
"and the killer is killed"
Bin Laden goes on to explain how he believes the U.S. has lost its world prestige since 9/11, thanks in large part to the fight he has engaged us in.
"Among the most important items contained in Bush's speeches ... is that the Americans have no option but to continue the war."
UBL has already justified his future actions by labeling his Jihad a defensive one. In the mind of him and his followers: If we are going to fight them, there is no reason they should not fight us. In essence, he is saying that we have left him no option for what we may now face.
"American statistics speak of the killing of more than 650,000 of the people of Iraq as a result of the war and its repercussions."
Core al Qaida always saw Iraq as Afghanistan II. U.S. soldiers on a Muslim land equates to de facto defensive Jihad under his interpretation of Islam. Our aim has always been to help, but with every death during our stay we are likely creating people who will follow the path of UBL. It's an unfortunate reality of the war in Iraq, but a real one nonetheless. His number of 650k is about the most inflated one available, but I think it points back to the reciprocal action -- an eye for an eye.
"You permitted Bush to complete his first term, and stranger still, chose him for a second term, which gave him a clear mandate from you -- with your full knowledge and consent, to continue to murder our people in Iraq and Afghanistan."
Eye for an eye again. We chose our fate. He goes on to explain that the Democrats failed to stop the war because those with "the most capital" are in charge, as Godzilla alluded to. That could very well be an important part of the tape if there is any hint at a target. Although, we must remember the economy and those who run it have always been the top target.
"the White House insists on not observing the Kyoto Accord, with the knowledge that the statistic speaks of the death and displacement of the millions of human beings because of that, especially in Africa."
At first his rant about Global Warming might seem odd, but I think this section unlocks what he is getting at. Choosing sides on the argument is irrelevant here because we are looking to what he is thinking and it clear he is on the side of those who believe it to be a real threat. The Sudan is a prime example of what may be happening if Global Warming is as damaging as some believe. Here is UN Sec General Ban Ki-Moon
Two decades ago, the rains in southern Sudan began to fail. According to U.N. statistics, average precipitation has declined some 40 percent since the early 1980s. Scientists at first considered this to be an unfortunate quirk of nature. But subsequent investigation found that it coincided with a rise in temperatures of the Indian Ocean, disrupting seasonal monsoons. This suggests that the drying of sub-Saharan Africa derives, to some degree, from man-made global warming.
It is no accident that the violence in Darfur erupted during the drought. Until then, Arab nomadic herders had lived amicably with settled farmers.
If some scientific modeling is correct, other largely Islamic places (South Asia and Indonesia) could see major affects from sea level rise. He is drawing attention to the African front of his Jihad and warning his followers that a similar fate may be in store for them because of us. Possible message: The U.S. will do what is necessary to make money even if it destroys the Muslim world (and perhaps greater world). He and al Qaida have done what they have done to try to help them -- future attacks are for the good of the world.
"and the reeling in of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgages."
Since day one al Qaida core has proclaimed that they wanted to bleed America's economy after 9/11... this quote shows 1) that UBL is updated on what is happening and 2) that he seems to believe the U.S. is very unstable and that al Qaida's technique has paid off thus far. The question to be asked is: Have we bled enough in his eyes for the next hit?
"You believe that Allah is your Lord .. and the Creator of this earth and that it is His property, then you work on His earth and property without His orders and without obeying Him, and you legislate in contradiction to His Law and methodology."
He is casting Americans as Polytheists who worship a creator and an institution or themselves. He has mentioned polytheism as an ultimate denouncement several times, going back at least to 1996 when he declared war on the U.S.:
No one, not even a blind or a deaf person, can deny the presence of the widely spread mischief or the prevalence of the great sins that have reached the grievous iniquity of polytheism and to share with Allah in His sole right of sovereignty and making of the law. The All-Mighty stated: {And when Luqman said to his son while he admonished him: O my son! Do not associate ought with Allah; most surely polytheism is a grievous iniquity} (Luqman; 31:13). Humanly fabricated laws have been put forward permitting what has been forbidden by Allah such as usury (Riba) and other matters. Banks dealing in usury are competing for land with the two Holy Places and declaring war against Allah by disobeying His order {Allah has allowed trading and forbidden usury} (Baqarah; 2:275).
"I tell you: there has been an increase in the thinkers who study events and happenings .. they have declared the approach of the collapse of the American Empire."
More strong words from UBL. He does not have a small attack in mind to set the final events in motion.
"I invite you to embrace Islam, for the greatest mistake one can make in this world and one which is uncorrectable is to die while not surrendering to Allah ... to die outside of Islam."
The invitation to Islam... as callmejoe said the other day, it seems "we have come full circle." This is not a warm welcome to his religion. It sounds a bit like "we" have no choice. We (Americans) are targeted and will die... and in his eyes, we should come to Islam first so we may have a chance to go to paradise. The tax references in regards to joining Islam seem to key in on the relatively fragile state of our continued prosperous economy. He seems to indicate that having no taxes would make our lives better by giving us more money.
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In terms of his speeches, this one seems rather black and white. It's almost like everything is set in stone at this point and he is telling us that he feels sorry for the fate we now have and that maybe we will be saved if we turn to Islam.
I'm not sure what to think about the release as a whole, but feel very strongly that we are getting close to their next big attempt.
“It sounds a bit like “we” have no choice.”
Yep, not a warm and fuzzy invitation.
Jihad — another day.
Thanks for posting this, nw.
good analysis. I read “imminent”.
When in reality, he is the one who struck first. But then I suspect he would reach back to our support of Israel to reclaim the justification.
Eye for an eye again. We chose our fate.
Yes, a recurring theme.
At first his rant about Global Warming might seem odd, but I think this section unlocks what he is getting at.
This is a stretch, but given much PC regarding GW, especially in Europe and uber liberals here, working to further bolster his 'defense' position.
Since day one al Qaida core has proclaimed that they wanted to bleed America's economy after 9/11... this quote shows 1) that UBL is updated on what is happening and 2) that he seems to believe the U.S. is very unstable and that al Qaida's technique has paid off thus far. The question to be asked is: Have we bled enough in his eyes for the next hit?
Hmmmm, did AQ time 911 to coincide with the recession the country had entered, or was that a side benefit? Perhaps, with hindsight, OBL sees how deeply a mega attack can affect the US economy and may be judging that ours is in a precarious position.
The invitation to Islam.
Conversion is the step to domination. I have to agree, we are a big step closer to their next attempt. Makes me wonder more about the options (?) trade that is betting on the stock-market tanking by the end of the month.