Posted on 08/31/2007 11:47:22 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Analysis: Military imbalance in the Taiwan Strait
HONG KONG, Aug. 31 ANDREI CHANG
During the past seven to 10 years China's rapid buildup of military power has tipped the balance in the Taiwan Strait strongly in its favor.
Since 1999, when former Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui announced his "two states" theory -- daring to say that the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China are two different states, precipitating the PRC's aggressive stance against the island's independence -- there have been drastic changes in the balance of military power on the two sides. This includes the navies, air forces, and strategic campaign missiles, or ballistic missiles.
The Taiwanese air force has not added a single new combat aircraft since 1999. It still has 148 F-16 Block 15 MTU, 58 Mirage2000-5 and 130 IDF fighters in service. The total number of its third generation fighters has remained around 336 over the past seven years. On the sea, the navy has added only four Kidd-class DDGs, the largest arms procurement since the Democratic Progressive Party came to power in 2000.
In terms of the buildup of ballistic missiles (surface-to-surface missiles, or SSMs), China has achieved a great leap forward both in the number of SSMs in its arsenal and in their overall quality. In addition to its DF-15 and DF-11 SSMs, which have been upgraded continuously over the years, television footage released by the official Chinese media shows there are at least one or two new types of short-range ballistic missiles now in operational service.
As far as the quality of the Chinese SSM is concerned, the export version of its B611M ballistic missile is now equipped with a GPS/GLONASS satellite positioning system, giving it a strike accuracy of around 50 meters (164 feet).
China's improved position in the air is evidenced by the changes in the quantity and quality of its third generation combat aircraft from 1999 to 2007. In 1999 it had only 48 Su-27SK, two J-11 A/B, a few Su-27 UBK and five J-10A aircraft. In 2007 the figures are 48 Su-27SK, 95 J-11 A/B, 28 additional Su-27 UBK, 100 Su-30 MKK/MK2, 64 J-10A, at least 24 JH-7A, 4 KJ-2000 and at least two KJ-200.
Based on these figures, the number of third generation combat aircraft in the fleet of the People's Liberation Army Air Force was only a modest 55 in 1999, while in 2007 the number has jumped to 369. In 2008 it will further surpass Taiwan's fleet
With the import of Su-30 MKK fighters, China's inventory of H-59ME and H-29TE TV-guided air-to-surface missiles, or ASMs; 1,500-pound Russian TV-guided bombs; H-31A anti-ship missiles; and H-31P anti-radiation missiles has also increased steadily over the last seven years. China has imported more than 1,000 RVV-AE active radar-guided air-to-air missiles, or AAMs, from Russia, while the number of AMR AAMs in the Taiwanese air force is no more than 120 now.
In addition, China continues to import a substantial number of RVV-AE AAMs every year. The critical change here is that in 1999, the PLAAF did not even have the capability to use such advanced AAMs as the PL-12RVV-AE AAM and the precision guidance land-attack weapons that they have now.
Given another two to three years, all the pilots of the PLAAF's 369 third generation fighters will have accumulated flight time of more than 1,000 hours. Around 2009 or 2010, the overall quality of the military personnel ready to take to the air over the Taiwan Strait will be fundamentally reversed, in favor of the PLA Air Force.
In 1999, the PLAAF did not have the capability to engage in aerial early warning operations. In 2007, there are already four plus two AWACS/AEW&C aircraft in operational service. Although these AWACS aircrafts have encountered such problems as electromagnetic disturbances and their training activities are less frequent than before, the PLA at least has the airborne warning and control system. The number of AWACS platforms currently operational in the PLAAF is equivalent to the number in Taiwan.
The PLAAF also has two refitted Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft, and other supporting electronic reconnaissance and countermeasure aircraft are under development. By contrast, the Taiwanese air force has had only one refitted C130 EW aircraft for years.
Since 1999, the PLA Navy has prioritized and sped up the building of surface battleships over 4,000 tons, nuclear-powered submarines and conventional diesel submarines. In 1999 the navy had one 7,000-ton class 956E/EM DDG, one 6,000-ton class 051B DDG, four Kilo 887/636 SS and one 039A SS. The 2007 numbers are at least one 094 SSBN, at least two 093 SSNs, four 7,000-ton class 956E/EM DDGs, one 6,000-ton class 051B DDG, two 7,000-ton class 051C DDGs, two 052B DDGs, two 053C DDGs, four 054/A FFGs, 12 Kilo 887/636 SS, and at least 10 039A SS.
The most remarkable change is that the PLAN had only one type 051B and one type 956E missile destroyers (DDG), in 1999 that had a full-load displacement of more than 6,000 tons, whereas in 2007 it has 11 large surface battleships with a displacement of more than 6,000 tons, and two type 054A missile frigates (FFG) with a respective full-load displacement of more than 4,000 tons. By contrast, the only surface battleships in the Taiwanese navy with full-load displacement of more than 7,000 tons are the four Kidd-class DDGs.
In terms of its range of anti-ship missiles, the PLAN is also edging ahead of the Taiwanese navy. The PLAN's stockpile of anti-ship missiles with a range of over 200 kilometers (125 miles) has increased steadily, including the YJ6-2 and 3M-54E anti-ship missiles with respective ranges of 280 kilometers (175 miles) and 220 kilometers (around 135 miles). Those missiles give the PLAN the capability to launch long-range attacks on the sea and underwater as well. Besides, the PLAN has widely deployed the 180-kilometer-range YJ8-3 SSM on its surface battleships.
The PLAN's RIF-M, HQ-9 long range and HQ-16, Shtil-1 middle range ship-to-air missiles are also already in service. This means the overall range of ship-to-air missiles of the Taiwanese navy can no longer match that of the PLAN.
Unlike the PLA Air Force's aircraft, however, most of the new battleships of the PLA Navy have only recently gone into operation, and may encounter difficulties in combat applications. For instance, the delivery of 8 Kilo 636 submarines started only in 2005, and the type 052C "Chinese Aegis" DDGs have remained anchored at the Sanya military port for most of this year. This indicates that these new battleships may have encountered problems.
Particularly, the PLAN has not established an integrated combat system at sea. As for its Type 054A FFGs, they are still under construction, and two Type 054 FFGs were newly delivered in 2005.
It will take time for China to resolve the problems with its new defense equipment. Nonetheless, the military power balance in terms of quantity and quality of weapons between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait continues to tilt markedly toward the side of the PRC.
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(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review, published in Hong Kong.)
bttt
I wonder what would happen if a single F-16 managed to take out the Three Gorges dam?
The 3 gorges dam is around 750 miles away from Taiwan-would the F-16 have that far with munitions???Esp. if the Chinese are expecting strikes.
What about Tomahawk cruise missiles?
Would have the range-yep.Butif you were talking about Taiwan, what would you fire it from-there are no air-launched Tomahawks now,which would anyway be very heavy for the their jets & the Taiwanese have only 2 combat capable submarines.
Their goal is to isolate and intimidate Taiwan without firing a shot.
Their goal is to isolate and intimidate Taiwan without firing a shot.
Yep. The fact they don’t have the means to invade usually escapes casual observers as well.
We seem to be twiddling our thumbs while Taiwan gets further outgunned. How long have we been talking about supplying SSK’s to Taiwan? Several years. So far not a single metal plate has been cut so far as I know.
1 question pertaining to the article: wouldn’t the SU-27/30 varients be a generation newer (ie. 4th Gen fighters) & therefore outclass anything Taiwan has? F16 (Block 15) is pretty old stuff.
Like they say, mechanical engineers build weapons and civil engineers build targets.
The Three Gorges Dam has taken China out of any major force action for the forseeable future. It is target number one for many countries.
Personally, I find it very hard to believe that there would not be near-universal condemnation of China if it assaulted and attempted to seize Taiwan. So then it would make no logical sense at all to perform the operation. But on the other hand, would the rest of the world really care? We would still be buying their products.
But I do know that the PRC seeks very much to control as much of the global oil supply, transportation routes and infrastructure as possible. Taiwan might really matter in that respect. Plus it's a U.S. ally. If you were the Chinese, would you want a U.S. ally sitting right off the coast of your country? I didn't think so.
Of course, the United States Navy could come on over and do it for them...
One day we’re going to wake up and find that the Red Chinese have launched hundreds or thousands of missiles of various types at every Taiwanese air and naval base, every intelligence facility, shipyards, military factories, fuel dumps, etc., effectively crippling Taiwan. They might not be able to invade, but they can do a lot of damage. Taiwan might not have the fortitude to resist much in such circumstances, particularly if we are quite busy elsewhere.
I hope that Taiwan remains vigilent 24/7, and that it upgrades and reinforces its air force and navy. Sitting on your rump regarding preparedness is never a good idea when your opponent is very large, very rich and very stubborn about your particular conflict.
Perhaps I am missing the obvious, but there should not be any military balance between an island of 22 million and a nation of 1.3 billion in the first place.
Shanghai is on the Yangzte.
The article is correct that as recently as 10 years ago, China posed no threat to Taiwan, because we had equipped the Taiwanese air force far beyond the capability of the mainland Chinese one. Then the mainland had only 50 top of the line fighter aircraft. They had hundreds of older and thousands of obsolete planes, but no hope of achieving a rapid air superiority over Taiwan. (Further recall that Taiwan had won air combats with the mainland half a dozen times since the 1950s).
But now the mainland has 250 top of the line aircraft with modern missiles, while Taiwan has stood still. The current odds are 5 to 3 favor the mainland and they have an electronics edge for the first time in history.
As for the navy, the mainland long since outmatched Taiwan alone, and are building further to seek parity with the nearby portion of the US fleet, not just the small Taiwanese navy. 15 modern missile armed surface combatants and 25 quiet submarines are a significant force, especially the latter. The former is really only enough to outmatch Taiwan, but the latter is nearing a level that the US has to worry about, if coming to Taiwan's aid.
Deterring that is obviously the whole point. China expects to seize Taiwan by military force while a deterred US stands aside, sometime in the next ten years - if they cannot simply coerce Taiwan into formal reunification by political means.
What is at stake in this is democracy in China. If the mainland liberalized its political system, Taiwan would reunify with them voluntarily. The mainland is seeking to avoid a need to liberalize its political system, while fufilling the nationalist aims of the populace without doing so.
It is not remotely in our interest that they succeed in that. Unification can come peacefully, if democracy preceeds it. We have every reason to get along with a democratic China. But to date the mainland has avoided anything of the kind.
And what makes everyone think that an invasion is what China wants??As of now,most of the world & every established power is siding with China on the legal status of Taiwan-as a part of China.An invasion is the perfect way to lead to a rethink on that.If it comes to it,it will be missile & air strikes,which will batter Taiwan’s military-all in a very short period of time .The PLA has the capability to do it.
When was the last time anyone hit a dam intentionally to start or prevent a war???Wouldn’t that actiong give the Chicoms the perfect excuse to unleash their nukes.Might as well use nukes on their military.Fact is,only the US,Russia & India(barely) have weapons with the range to hit the 3 gorges & all three have nukes,so again,what’s thep point in hitting the 3 gorges.
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