Posted on 08/23/2007 1:24:06 PM PDT by Plutarch
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
If Rudy is nominated, the Republican Party will split and Hillary will be President. Rudy is the candidate she want to run against. She cannot get 50% of the vote. She needs a third party to win and Rudy’s nomination will provide a very muscular one.
As for 90% of Freepers voting for Rudy if he is the nominee, I submit that you are incorrect. Jim Robinson has said himself that he will not vote for Rudy under any circumstances. I would say he is a better “leading indicator” of what Freepers and other likeminded conservatives will do.
You do not “combat liberalism” by voting for liberals.
With maybe one exception, every national poll so far has Rudy in the high 20s, Fred in the mid-teens to 20. But regardless, almost every poll has Rudy with a 5-15 point lead. These are not "magical" numbers or illusory. They reflect that right now Rudy is the candidate. That can change, but Fred is running out of time with January and February primaries coming up.
Romney can’t do it. He hasn’t moved above 20% consistently in any poll. You wonder if he’d be in single digits WITHOUT the money.
That’s how I see it. Look at it this way: the 25%-32% of Rudy’s supporters are “hard” supporters. But the 15% McClame is getting, combined with the 20% Romney is getting, are “soft” supporters that I think will support EITHER Rudy or Fred if one of them emerges with some momentum. The fight is over those 30-35% of McClame/Romney/Huckaby/Paul/Tancredo/Brownback people.
Yeah, I think that’s true for a percentage of the GOP primary voters about Fred.
I actually think, despite Fred’s supposedly more conservative persona, that if he dropped out or didn’t get in the race, Rudy would be the big winner.
Great analysis. I will enthusiastically vote for Fred, Rudy, Romney, or Huckaby. I would not, under any circumstances, vote for Ron Paul or Mclame.
Do you have that “without Fred” chart with a “second choice” option? In other words, without FDT, is Rudy the walk-away winner?
I've wondered the same thing when I've read comments like that. I usually have Fox News on all day, from morning until night, and I haven't gotten that impression at all.
Polls taken before a campaign are like preseason polls in football. The game has not been played yet. Once the campaign starts and ads are run attacking Rudy’s left wing positions on abortion, 2nd Amendment, Immigration, he is going to drop like a stone. I believe, and hope, this will happen in the primary.
If it does not and he is nominated, a third party will arise that will peel off 20% of the total vote and Hillary will be President. Rudy’s nomination will guarantee Hillary’s election even more securely than Perot did for Bill Clinton.
“How are they propping Rudy up?”
Softball pieces focusing exclusively on 9/11 and ignoring his many far left positions.
The interviews have been deferential in the extreme. No one has commented on his footwear or the fact that he used a golf cart or flubbed a line in a speech. Is that enough examples?
Thank you for your examples. I’ll keep a diligent eye and ear on Fox and see if I can find examples of my own too.
I will write in "Bullwinkle" if the Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Ruby Julie-Annie.
The national polls or a fictional match up with the beast doesn’t mean sick-em if Rooty can’t win the nomination.
When is the Ohio primary? If its not before the early states it wont mean much to the nomination if Rooty has a long string of straight losses going in.
Only one sitting Representative has ever been elected to the Presidency, that was James Garfield. Only two sitting Senators, Harding and Kennedy were elected to the Presidency.
Now at least sixteen former Representatives (Madison, Jackson, Harrison, Tyler, Polk, Filmore, Pierce, Buchanan, Lincoln, Hayes, McKinley, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Bush(41)) were President - I think fifteen Presidents were former Senators. Some of the Presidents were both former Representatives and Senators.
dvwjr
Prepare for a Hillary Clinton presidency with that attitude.
I'd like Fred to get in as much as anyone, but he is NOT helping himself by staying on the sidelines.
I hear this every election where someone that the “true-blues” don’t like is nominated. Bloomberg has more of a chance of making a dent in Rudy than a conservative “third-party.” What, like Paul? I’m sure that his 1% terrifies Rudy.
Who did they poll, their own newsroom?
Fred is the only one who can beat him in southern states.
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