If Thompson runs, he'll win the south, some of the mid-west and central US.
As I see it (and I'd prefer Thompson), the only question is can Rudy win those same states in the general election? Certainly he won't win the south...the bastion of the GOP for the last 25 years.
What we MAY see is a complete reconfiguration of the GOP...national defense, smaller govt, law&order and the jettison of the social conservatives to the state assemblies where they belong.
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against social conservatives and I'm glad they're in the GOP...but I don't believe the politics of morality belong at the national level. I also do not believe the politics of amorality belong at the national level...those decisions belong EXCLUSIVELY to the States and the People, respectively.
Yeah, right.
Rudy couldn't even out-poll Hillary during the 2000 NY Senate race when he was sitting mayor of NYC and she was a carpetbagger wife of an impeached president.
While I certainly agree that Rudy wants to jettison social conservatives, his record does not support your contention about smaller government and his "law & order" methods are anathema to most conservatives. And then there is his stance on immigration (sanctuary cities, etc), his support of global warming scams, his position on gun licensing, etc. If that is the face of the "New GOP," count me out. It flies in the face of the entire GOP platform!
IF you consider weakness on illegal immigration, gun control, nanny statism, the 4th Amendment, and pandering to leftists as “social” issues on which a candidate’s positions are unimportant, than Rudy could be your guy.