Posted on 08/16/2007 6:15:38 PM PDT by bnelson44
Rudy Giuliani got good news earlier this week from a CBS poll that most people have learned to mistrust -- for good reason -- but Rasmussen may provide some corroboration today. According to the normally reliable pollster, Rudy has his first significant lead in head-to-head polling against Hillary Clinton, and the crosstabs show some surprising depth (via Instapundit):
After being virtually tied with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for several months, Republican contender Rudy Giuliani now leads Clinton up 47% to 40% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
In the match-up of the frontrunners, this result marks a significant shift. For the last three months the two frontrunners have never been further apart than three percentage points. Last month, Giuliani and Clinton were separated by just a single point.
Senator Clinton fares modestly better against former Senator Fred Thompson. Clinton now has a three point edge over him, 46% to 43%. All four previous Clinton-Thomas have also been toss-ups.
It's significant that neither top 50% in the poll. Eight percent insist on voting for another candidate, even when the question gets posed as a two-choice affair. Five percent are unsure. We'll come back to them in a moment.
Rudy has some surprising strength in the demographics, especially women. While pundits believe that Hillary would motivate women to flock to her banner, Giuliani actually edges Hillary 44%-42% in this poll -- within the margin of error, to be sure, but much closer than most would imagine. Giuliani has a majority of those between 30-39 years of age (54-36) while Hillary has a slimmer majority in the 40-49 range (50-44). Despite Democratic claims on the youth vote, Hillary only gets a single percentage point lead on Rudy on the 18-29 demo (38-37), and Giuliani has significant leads among those 50 and older.
Otherwise, the only other surprise among the demographics are black voters. Hillary has a lead on Giuliani there, but Rasmussen shows the split 48-41 Hillary. I'd guess this to be a typo. The "Others" category is split 55-11 for Hillary, and I'd wager that they have the two turned around. Even so, only getting 55% of the black vote in a two-way race (18% unsure) looks like a huge problem for the Democrats.
As to those who are unsure, the most significant demographics for the undecided are those that favor Giuliani. That means that we could expect them to break more towards Rudy than Hillary when push comes to shove. All in all, this seems like the kind of boost that Rudy can use to make the case that he provides the best chance for Republicans to beat Hillary next November. John Podhoretz should be dancing over at The Corner with this news.
Looks like Jim forgot a few dust bunnies during his spring cleaning.
Let’s hope he trips on one of his ex-wives and loses steam.
It’s good to keep a few Rudy-toots around for target practice. Kinda like MurryMom, but just not quite as stupid.
It’s good to keep a few Rudy-toots around for target practice. Kinda like MurryMom, but just not quite as stupid.
You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.
So then tell us how you can support a guy who:
Took guns away from long-term NYC permit holders.
Sued gun manufacturers.
Used the 1997 Empire State Building Terrorist attacks to call Rep McCarthy to stand with him to call for more federal gun control laws
Supported the assault weapons ban.
And addressed Gun Control Inc. rallies.
If you can support Rudy after he's done all that, your Second Amendment bona fides ain't nothing more than hot air.
Period, Shmeriod.
I'm a conservative, you idiot. I'll vote for Rudy over Hillary any day of the week. I'll vote for any Republican over Hillary any day of the week.
Sometimes you vote for someone. Other times you vote against someone. Oh, and that's Hillary Clinton, as in HILLARY CLINTON.
You can dredge up the Hillary bogeywoman all you want.
No need. She'll be the nominee.
I've said I'd rather see other Republicans get nominated...but none of them are perfect. If perfection is your goal, what presidential candidate are you ever gonna vote for? Every politician on earth is compromised.
Most of you anti-Rudy goons are for a Republican defeat in '08 anyway...you're a bunch of phonies.
If Thompson runs, he'll win the south, some of the mid-west and central US.
As I see it (and I'd prefer Thompson), the only question is can Rudy win those same states in the general election? Certainly he won't win the south...the bastion of the GOP for the last 25 years.
What we MAY see is a complete reconfiguration of the GOP...national defense, smaller govt, law&order and the jettison of the social conservatives to the state assemblies where they belong.
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against social conservatives and I'm glad they're in the GOP...but I don't believe the politics of morality belong at the national level. I also do not believe the politics of amorality belong at the national level...those decisions belong EXCLUSIVELY to the States and the People, respectively.
“You are a misguided fool.”
Thank you for your insightful commentary.
Yeah, right.
Rudy couldn't even out-poll Hillary during the 2000 NY Senate race when he was sitting mayor of NYC and she was a carpetbagger wife of an impeached president.
And in most cases, when your candidate's primary asset is that they are not the other candidate, you tend to lose.
“Most of you anti-Rudy goons are for a Republican defeat in ‘08 anyway...you’re a bunch of phonies.”
I swear they sound like plants from the Daily KOS...
You're not a conservative, you're a naive fool who has bought into the self-fulfilling prophecy that Rudy is the only one to beat Hillary and therefore conservatives should shut up and support him.
I'll vote for Rudy over Hillary any day of the week. I'll vote for any Republican over Hillary any day of the week.
You might as well just vote for Hillary. In almost every area, Rudy is similar to Hillary, right down to the corruption. Yeah, he talks a good game about cutting taxes and being tough on the WOT, but it's all election-year BS.
No need. She'll be the nominee.
Hillary Clinton will not win UNLESS her opponent is just as equally as liberal as she is. The MSM has been rather silent on Rudy now, but when he's nominated, they're going to strip him naked like an ear of corn on the cob.
I've said I'd rather see other Republicans get nominated...but none of them are perfect. If perfection is your goal, what presidential candidate are you ever gonna vote for? Every politician on earth is compromised.
Hunter, Paul, Tancredo and Fred Thompson are all solid conservatives. Fred & Paul in particular can attract independent/swing voters who'll defect from the Democrats.
Most of you anti-Rudy goons are for a Republican defeat in '08 anyway...you're a bunch of phonies.
Bullfeces. We support a genuine conservative Republican instead of a liberal Republican who's going to lose to the Democrat anyways.
FReepers could get behind Fred Thompson when he gets in the race next month.... or....
FReepers can continue to be divided and fight with themselves, and Hillary and the DailKOSers will win.
The way I see it, it is your choice. I watched the 2006 train wreck here, and I can watch it again.
While I certainly agree that Rudy wants to jettison social conservatives, his record does not support your contention about smaller government and his "law & order" methods are anathema to most conservatives. And then there is his stance on immigration (sanctuary cities, etc), his support of global warming scams, his position on gun licensing, etc. If that is the face of the "New GOP," count me out. It flies in the face of the entire GOP platform!
Amazing what some people will sell their soul and their country down the river for isn't it?
He has promised to appoint Strict Constructionists.
I'd take a Strict Constructionist over a "conservative" with an agenda ANY DAY.
Except that, according to Rudy, a Strict Construtionist could uphold Roe.
Which means he has no friggin' clue what that term means.
“You guys are freaking delusional, thinking you can support a POS liberal here and then criticize us when called upon it.”
Great points. Now, who do you support? How will your candidate actually WIN the nomination? How will your candidate actually WIN an election?
Or do you just live for the thrill of sitting home and hating people?
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