Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
WARNING: If you want to join, be aware that this ping list is EXTREMELY active.
Posted on 08/16/2007 9:25:17 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Billed as a savior of conservatives left cold by 2008 Republican White House hopefuls, screen star Fred Thompson Friday dips a toe into the race in Iowa. But has his rescue mission come too late? The craggy former senator's visit to supporters in the strategic state is the latest signal that an official campaign launch is imminent.
Thompson, star of internationally syndicated crime drama "Law Order," had been expected to take the plunge a few months ago. Now the smart money is on an early September debut -- four months before first nominating contests.
A Thompson campaign aide declined to confirm such rumors Wednesday, saying the 64-year-old, six-foot-six (two meter) star of "The Hunt for Red October" was still "testing the waters."
But when he does join the fray, how will Thompson fare against rivals who have been on the trail and piling up huge war chests for months?
If polls are to be believed, his spell on the sidelines was a political masterstroke.
In an average of recent national surveys by website Real Clear Politics, he sits second to former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani, and is a clear top-tier candidate in polls in key states in the nominating process.
But the phantom candidacy has also exerted a price.
Back in May, when news of a possible run surfaced, Thompson basked in a wave of favorable publicity.
But since then, reports have emerged of several campaign shake-ups and gossipy accounts of supposed overreaching by Thompson's wife and advisor Jeri.
Still, Thompson remains well placed, said Dan Shea, professor of politics at Allegheny College.
"I think it was rather strategic ... on the Republican side I think that a lot of voters and potential contributors have been only moderately pleased with the field."
"Jumping in late gives them the impression that he is the savior of the party -- so I think it was smart," Shea said.
But Thompson faces soaring expectations from Republicans desperate for the mix of plain-spoken conservatism and charisma embodied by another former screen star, their hero Ronald Reagan.
Critics, though, have complained Thompson is a mere shadow of the late ex-president, with a modest record as a Tennessee senator between 1994 and 2003.
But Thompson's trump card may be his gruff, no-nonsense character and southern charm, rather than a stuffed policy briefing book.
"Ronald Reagan was popular and effective because of his personality, not because of his record of achievement as governor of California," Shea said.
"His personality fit a need at the time -- that's I think what Republicans are looking for now."
Thompson's tax-cutting, small government ways sit well with conservatives yearning for a Reagan substitute.
"He is very much out of the Reagan mould, he is very much a federalist," said Professor John Geer, of Vanderbilt University, Tennessee.
"He speaks to a lot of old-time Republican concerns."
Thompson's return from the wilderness may reflect weakness in the overall Republican field, some analysts believe.
Giuliani's past positions on issues like abortion are seen as too liberal by many social conservatives.
Senator John McCain is struggling just to keep his campaign alive and Mitt Romney, the ex-governor of Massachusetts, is accused of hiding a moderate political past.
Thompson skeptics, though, point to his disappointing fundraising haul of just 3.4 million dollars in June. His backers, however, predict money will pour in when he enters the race for real.
Thompson has been holding forth on his new website "ImwithFred.com," calling for higher defense spending, lower taxes and sticking with the current surge strategy in Iraq.
In previous articles and blog postings with various conservative sites, Thompson has branded Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a "pirate" and accused Democrats of "investing" in a US defeat in Iraq.
He harbors a dark world view of looming future threats and has accused NATO allies of slumbering through a showdown with Al-Qaeda's forces of "nihilism."
From first to last: “Billed as a savior...he harbors a dark world view...”
No, not too biased.
Maybe they still have an agenda.
FRED PING!!
if he is this slow about running or not, how would he really be running the country
IB4TFP!! :-)
just a TV star, huh?
the reason that he only raised $3M...he is not a candidate, and much of the early money is already committed.
Once he is in, the money will follow.
He raised $3.45 million in 26 days. That doesn’t sound too bad to me for an undeclared candidate...
The date on my check 01 October 2007.....!!!!!!!!!!!......
Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
WARNING: If you want to join, be aware that this ping list is EXTREMELY active.
**************
Sounds good to me.
“He raised $3.45 million in 26 days. That doesn’t sound too bad to me for an undeclared candidate...”
How much has he raised in the subsequent 45 days since end of June?
Still ‘testing the waters’? C’mon, the water is fine.
Honestly, I don’t like that he has not announced and is playing footsie with the candidacy. If you are going to do something, do it 100%. It betokens indecisiveness or willingness to string people along. Either attribute is unattractive. And I speak as someone who might otherwise be a vocal Thompson supporter.
“Thompson’s return from the wilderness may reflect weakness in the overall Republican field, some analysts believe.”
Uh, that *IS* the AFP’s bias right there.
We have a feeble bunch of candidates.
Hogwash.
And btw, ‘wilderness’?!? Was Fred T. in the desert eating locusts and cactus plants?!? Who’d a thunk.
What? The first primary is next January, you say? Never mind.
Haste Makes Waste, Fred By Blake D. Dvorak
Fred Thompson has not missed his moment. The frustration that we're supposed to be feeling about his delayed entry into the race is being driven by an impatient media and a base aware that most of the primary events up till now mean little. Thompson's entry, whatever his chances, will be a big event that will overshadow all the summer's trivial twists and turns.
Part of Thompson's plan here has to do with the expectations game. Two months ago, Thompson wasn't just another candidate. He was the conservative savior, the Southern-Fried Ronald Reagan. It was an envious position for any politician but also dangerous. While Rudy Giuliani would be out there surprising Republican voters and earning their respect, Thompson would be disappointing voters whose expectations of him had been ridiculously high. Under those circumstances, Fred-Dot-Com would have burst rather quickly.
Since then, Thompson has made a few blunders and taken his share of hits. But by waiting and letting the excitement dissipate, Thompson has rid himself of some of the silliness that had raised his expectation level to unrealistic heights.
Another part has to do with plain economics. Take Ames, for example. Mitt Romney spent a couple million dollars to win a straw poll against a pack of notable, but clearly second-tier candidates. A victory, but a hollow victory in many ways since Romney's three main rivals didn't participate.
Had Thompson announced in June might he have had enough time and resources to beat Romney at Ames? It's possible, but Romney wasn't about to be muscled out of Iowa. He needed an Ames victory more than Thompson, whereas a second-place finish for Thompson would have deflated the infant candidacy quickly, not to mention sap precious resources. So the best move for Thompson was not to participate at all, especially since Giuliani and John McCain weren't going either.
We also should remember that it's still very early. The new Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday puts the race in some context: Sixteen percent of those Republicans surveyed have no clue about whom they support. In June, that number was 17%; in May, 16%; in February, 15%. What this consistency should tell us is that there is a sizable portion of the GOP electorate has not been focused on the race.
To reinforce that point, look at Romney, coming off the all-important Ames victory. According to Quinnipiac, 47% of Republicans don't know enough about him to have an opinion, which is down just slightly from 54% in June. Even Giuliani isn't any more known to Republicans now than he was in June - those who don't know him hovers around 12%.
What that means is that the half-dozen or so debates we've had since the spring has done very little to boost any of the announced candidates. One can make the case that Giuliani, who had serious baggage going in, had to get out there early and show the base who he is. But why would Thompson, already fairly well known, subject himself to Chris Matthews' inane lecturing months before it really matters?
Official or otherwise, Thompson has been running for president since the spring. But his patience in holding off any official announcement has allowed him to organize his campaign and develop a theme beyond his original - and slightly arrogant - proclamation about the "times meeting the man." Come Labor Day, however, Thompson - and the voters - will be ready.
It seems to me that Fred is doing a great job of SandBaging!!!....Rove Who????....October Surprise????......
The sooner the better for him ... the window’s closing on him...
So...everyone's answer is September 1st. Now...
While Rudy Giuliani would be out there surprising Republican voters and earning their respect, Thompson would be disappointing voters whose expectations of him had been ridiculously high. Under those circumstances, Fred-Dot-Com would have burst rather quickly.This analysis rang true to me when I saw it posted earlier. The expectation level was about as unrealistic as a high-school crush. And I've no doubt that the ones who say they've lost interest will be back giving him a second, more realistic look when he officially announces.Since then, Thompson has made a few blunders and taken his share of hits. But by waiting and letting the excitement dissipate, Thompson has rid himself of some of the silliness that had raised his expectation level to unrealistic heights.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
