What the Media Should Report About the Ames Straw Poll (Romney, Huckabee, Ron Paul)

USAElectionPolls.com ^ | 8/12/07 | David Terr

[George W. Bush]

What the Media Should Report About the Ames Straw Poll

David Terr
Lead Analyst
Ph.D. Math; Berkeley
8/12/07

Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul Were Clear Winners, Mitt Romney Was a Loser

"Often, however, the media do not actually interpret poll results, but instead present simple, straightforward descriptive statements about them... Measures of association, correlation analysis, and multivariate statistical analyses are virtually nonexistent" - Asher, Ohio State University

I would first like to congratulate Mitt Romney for his impressive win at the Ames Straw Poll before I start criticizing him and tell you what the media is not reporting.

Candidate	Official Vote Count	Percentage
Mitt Romney	4516	31.5%
Mike Huckabee	2587	18.0%
Sam Brownback	2192	15.3%
Tom Tancredo	1961	13.7%
Ron Paul	1305	9.1%
Tommy Thompson	1039	7.2%
Fred Thompson	203	1.4%
Rudy Giuliani	183	1.2%
Duncan Hunter	174	1.2%
John McCain	101	0.7%
John Cox	41	0.3%

When you consider all the money Romney had spent in order to win the Ames Straw Poll, he did not do well at all. I do not know the actual dollar amount spent by the Romney campaign but I think it would be safe to say that it was on the order of hundreds per vote. But Romney is a smart businessman, he understands that winning this event will generate tons of free positive media attention worth far more than the petty millions he spent for Ames.

I cannot give the Romney campaign the win here today because his 31% at Ames is already close to the 27% he got in the University of Iowa poll earlier this month. Compare that to Mike Huckabee who got only 3% in that same poll getting 18% here.

What's even worse for Romney is the fact that Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich, and Fred Thompson were not even vying for votes at the Ames Straw Poll yet they are included in the polls that have Romney in the high-20s. And add to that the fact that 20% of Republican voters are undecided and you should have had a slam dunk by Romney by at least a 5:1 margin over his next closest competitor.

 

Actual Results - of the Latest Iowa Polls
Candidate	Univ. of Iowa	ABC News	ARG	Research 2000
Mitt Romney	27%	26%	21%	25%
Rudy Giuliani	11%	14%	22%	13%
Fred Thompson	7%	13%	13%	14%
Tom Tancredo	4%	5%	1%	2%
Sam Brownback	4%	5%	1%	2%
John McCain	3%	8%	17%	10%
Mike Huckabee	3%	8%	1%	2%
Tommy Thompson	-	4%	2%	2%
Ron Paul	-	2%	1%	1%
Duncan Hunter	-	1%	2%	1%
Newt Gingrich	-	-	4%	6%
Unsure	31%	7%	15%	22%
Other	10%	1%	-	-
None of these	-	4%	-	-

So what we did is we took the last 4 poll results and removed all the votes for Giuliani, McCain, F. Thompson, Gingrich, and the Undecideds and divvied up the rest of the votes to see the percentage.

Normalized Results - Removing Giuliani, McCain, F. Thompson, Gingrich, and Undecideds
Candidate	Univ. of Iowa	ABC News	ARG	Research 2000
Mitt Romney	71%	51%	72.4%	71.4%
Tom Tancredo	10.5%	9.8%	3.4%	5.7%
Sam Brownback	10.5%	9.8%	3.4%	5.7%
Mike Huckabee	7.9%	15.7%	3.4%	5.7%
Tommy Thompson	0%	7.8%	6.9%	5.7%
Ron Paul	0%	3.9%	3.4%	2.9%
Duncan Hunter	0%	2.0%	6.9%	2.9%
Percent of Total Poll	38%	51%	29%	35%

Flaws. The flaw with this is the error in assuming that voters who favor those candidates we had removed would be distributed across the rest of the candidates in the exact same proportions. The same would be true of the way the votes would spread out with the undecideds and the decideds. The last flaw is that by removing votes you decrease the sample size which results in a grossly high margin of error as much as 9%.

Despite all of that, 3 out of the 4 polls suggest that Romney would be getting 71-72%. And by averaging all of those normalized averages, we correctly predict the Top 4 finishers in exactly the same order they came in.

Candidate	Combined Normalized Average	Straw Poll Average	Percent Gain	Net Gain
Mitt Romney	66%	31.5%	NEGATIVE	-34.5
Mike Huckabee	8.2%	18.0%	220&	+9.8
Sam Brownback	7.4%	15.3%	207%	+7.9
Tom Tancredo	7.4%	13.7%	185%	+6.3
Tommy Thompson	5.1%	7.2%	141%	+2.1
Ron Paul	2.6%	9.1%	350%	+6.5
Duncan Hunter	3.9%	1.2%	NEGATIVE	-2.7

According to this estimate, Romney should have had an 8:1 margin of victory over his next closest competitor. In fact, I heard some analysts that made this exact conclusion.. they probably did something very similar to me to get their prediction.

I think the pundits that claimed Romney's win would be very comfortable hurt him in this Straw Poll. Much like when Clinton went for reelection in 1996 and all the pollsters claimed an easy Clinton victory, many voters were apathetic and just stayed home on election day. The same could have been true of Romney's supporters expecting a very comfortable win.

There is also the the likelihood that the Unsure voters flocked towards the other candidates (not Romney) in a larger proportion than the decideds did. That is very likely because whenever there is a race between a very well known candidate and someone less known, a voter being Undecided is usually a No vote to the well known candidate. The other unknown is how the Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, and Gingrich voters distributed across the other candidates. They may have supported Huckabee, Brownback, and Tancredo at a higher rate than they did Romney.

In looking at these results, Romney did more than a factor of 2 worse than expected as per the Combined Normalized Average (CNA). He was a big loser.

Mike Huckabee more than doubled his expected CNA and is obviously the true winner at the Straw Poll. Brownback and Tancredo had similar jumps but coming in third and fourth is about as good as kissing your sister.

Tommy Thompson barely moved up compared to the CNA thus he was clearly a loser. He has continuously said that unless he gets second place finish at the Straw Poll, he will not continue on with the campaign. Well sayonara Tommy because not only did you not do well but you finished sixth place.

Ron Paul showed a 350% improvement over his CNA at the straw poll and is clearly the second winner at the event. It is easy to show such a marked up win when you are only averaging about 2-3% in the polls but his polling average has been 50% lower than Duncan Hunter yet he wiped the floor of Hunter by a factor of 8. He had a raw net gain in percentage more than Tom Tancredo.

Ron Paul supporters should be very proud of his performance here. It may be reported as a horrendous performance because he came in fifth place but when you consider he was not even included in many polls just a few months ago and his poor polling numbers thus far have been keeping him down, 10% here is great.

Herbert Asher, a Political Science professor at Ohio State University, said that "continuing coverage of long-term trends, and background news is often neglected" by the media. The background news in this story is simple:

• Romney did not do well, his supporters may have stayed home expecting an easy win.
• Huckabee and Ron Paul soared above all expectations and are on the way up.
• Duncan Hunter and Tommy Thompson should drop out of the race.

I think Ron Paul's above expectations performance is a result of the underdog theory in reporting of polls. The concept that when supporters see their candidate down in the polls, they support him with greater angst.

With Mike Huckabee, I think the above expectations performance will have far greater impact on the presidential race than anything else. Look at the front runners: Romney is a mormon, Giuliani has been divorced and dressed in drag, McCain is old and dropping... Huckabee has set himself as the clear alternative choice. He had polled as high as 8% in Iowa (ABC News Poll) and will likely see himself in double digits in the next poll. In the next few months, it is going to be interesting to see if Huckabee can oust Romney. My perception is that once voters believe Huckabee can win, some of them will drop the Romney campaign for Huckabee. Because essentially a vote for Romney is a vote for traditional christian conservative values that Huckabee brings to the table.

Call this spin or whatever else you want but this is my interpretation of the data. Leave your comments below.

[Nav_Mom]

I’m trying to get a feel for the Freepers candidate...
Am I correct in my opinion that Romney is not too popular with FR?
My husband and I see him as the best chance we have for a win. Feedback ??

[NCSteve]

Gastonia is in a more conservative (and libertarian) part of the state. Had this same event occurred down East, say around Raleigh or Wilmington, the results would have been very different.

It is interesting, though.

[padre35]

“I’m trying to get a feel for the Freepers candidate...
Am I correct in my opinion that Romney is not too popular with FR?
My husband and I see him as the best chance we have for a win. Feedback ??”

IMO, that comes and goes, one week it’s Mitt, the next week Fred, Rudy is most certainly NOT a FR favorite and Dr. Paul really brings out the passion and flames...LOL!

[End Times Crusader]

...or a Paulestinian.

[ridge]

i assume you mean the original author. exactly, he could’a wasted another hour or two to plop his “analysis” into a simulation package like @risk or crystal ball.

he would’a concluded Ron Paul was god.

doing work on a non-scientific poll is flaky. multiple special interests involved themselves with the Republican event. first, the libertarians, a group of anarchists and loopy gold standard bearers, came out for Ron Paul. then you have all the other untold groups like fair taxers for Huckabee, who is good guy and who has never served in our boondoggle of a senate.

—snip—
Fair Tax Voters Boost Huckabee
by: Garance Franke-Ruta
Saturday (08/11) at 21:28 PM

Voters bused to the Ames Straw Poll by Americans for Fair Taxation helped give a boost to suprise second-place poll winner Mike Huckabee, according to both a spokesman for the group and Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman. Asked about things that might have made the difference for Huckabee, who did not bus voters to the poll and purchased about 1,850 tickets for supporters, Saltsman said, “We talked a lot about the fair tax.”

The group, better known as FairTax.org, bused about 500 voting Iowans and 1,000 other supporters to the Straw Poll today, according to FairTax.org national director of grassroots Mike Rose. The group sponsored a ferris wheel — the “Fairest Wheel,” they called it — at the Straw Poll, as well as a fan-cooled tent serving barbecue and dessert to supporters. This came on the heels of a two-week, 25-stop bus tour across the state to drum up enthusiasm for the group’s tax reform plan, which Huckabee supports. Poll winner Mitt Romney and third-place finisher Sen. Sam Brownback do not support the plan.

All told, the group spent $150,000 on the straw poll, according to national spokesman Ken Hoagland — roughly the same amount as the Huckabee campaign itself. “We’re about 6 inches off the ground,” said Hoagland. “We see it as a victory for our issue.”

—snip—

[padre35]

“
“Romney/Switchback each had over 100 buses.”

And Mitt’s voters didn’t really vote for him in the numbers that he paid for, he underperformed, Brownback’s (isn’t that a spider?) numbers are unknown to me, how many tickets he purchased etc...I have no idea about his actual numbers.

Ron Paul is bringing in “new” people to the political process, and those folks are very enthusiastic about supporting him as your Gastonia BBQ story shows even though it is very general as to specifics like numbers of people, previous participation in the politcal areana etc.

[iowamark]

Various candidates and groups were handing out stacks of free tickets. Nobody had to buy their own.

[NCSteve]

Romney cannot possibly beat Hillary. Religious conservatives on the whole don’t trust him, and he has driven away the liberatrians and country-clubbers by pandering to the religious right. Rank-and-file Republicans on the whole don’t really trust him because he is the governor of a very liberal state. Finally, on many issues, you will find his positions to be virtually indistinguishable from Hillary’s.

Romney is like McCain and Giuliani: a creation of the media. The media has portrayed him as a “conservative” when he clearly is not. They do so because he is a safe conservative. Remember that the media’s tactic is to pillory any Republican who gets elected, regardless of how far and fast he runs to the left, as in the case of George Bush. Romney fits that mold well since he will pay just enough lip service to the right that the media will be able to attack him without any worries that he will actually do anything meaningful.

[Nav_Mom]

Finally, on many issues, you will find his positions to be virtually indistinguishable from Hillary’s.

Please elaborate....I have seen no similar stances between Romney & Hillary. Can you name some?

[padre35]

“Various candidates and groups were handing out stacks of free tickets. Nobody had to buy their own.”

In what numbers? Do you know or have any idea of how many were given out and to whom? Not asking to be a smat alec, more to get some sort of feel for what happened there.

And the Iowa poll does limit participation, so that would seem to bolster my “New People involved” idea.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

When your a loser you settle for moral victories.

It must suck to type like a 3rd grader.

He knows that America will never vote for the blame America first rosie paul.

I'll take Paul as Commander-in-Chief over Romney, Huckabee, & Giuliani anyday.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Thanks for the PING George. Got the day off today!

[ridge]

ROFL.

This is hott. “So what we did is we took the last 4 poll results and removed all the votes for Giuliani, McCain, F. Thompson, Gingrich, and the Undecideds and divvied up the rest of the votes to see the percentage.” Sure thing.

[Nav_Mom]

I forgot to ask....who do you support for the GOP nomination?

[curiosity]

"Often, however, the media do not actually interpret poll results, but instead present simple, straightforward descriptive statements about them... Measures of association, correlation analysis, and multivariate statistical analyses are virtually nonexistent" - Asher

Given that most reporters don't know the first thing about statistics, that's a good thing.

[Badeye]

Thanks.

[Badeye]

Yep.

The article about Ron Paul’s ‘earmarks’ was the last straw for me. What a hypocrite.

[iowamark]

You are correct that many/most conservatives distrust Mitt because of his many years of pro-abort advocacy. He openly scorned conservatism and Ronald Reagan until just recently. I know that his positions have changed in recent months. But many fear that this is just too opportunistic and transitory.

Why do you think he is the “best chance for a win?” His personal wealth is the only strong positive I see.

[roses of sharon]

RP, Alex Jones, and this Prof, know how to keep the leftwing moonbat money flowing, sad.

[George W. Bush]

Am I correct in my opinion that Romney is not too popular with FR?

Romney's pretty popular, not as much as Fred or Duncan.

The two most hated candidates are probably Giuliani and Ron Paul. Stick around. The Paul-trolls will show up in force, obsessing at great length for hundreds of posts about how irrelevant he is. LOL.