Posted on 08/14/2007 8:47:33 AM PDT by Hydroshock
Edited on 08/28/2007 8:53:29 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Oh boy....
August 14 2007: 2:52 PM EDT
Dow tumbles 200 as selloff accelerates
Major gauges slump as investors worry about Wal-Mart, bank stocks, mortgage market and credit crunch.
Riverside is a separate city in Riverside County while San Bernardino is a separate city in San Bernardino County but a lot of times you will see Riverside/San Bernardino referred to as the Inland Empire.
At what point would you say those factors have already been priced in? When valuations are double what they were 5 years ago? 300%? 500%? 1000%? Have the fundamentals really gotten THAT much better in such a short period of time?
One could easily argue that in many areas of Southern California, illegal immigration and crime are substantially worse than a decade or two ago. Crowding and traffic have gotten obscene. The state has gone broke and is now writing long term bonds for routine infrastructure maintenance. Native-born Americans are leaving in droves. “Progressive” zoning regulations are plopping blighted low-income housing in the middle of affluent suburbs. These trends are only getting worse with time, and the liberals in charge will fight to the death to keep it that way.
There is a very real possibility that prices will fall dramatically in the near future. CA real estate was always higher than most of the nation for the reasons you listed, and will probably remain that way as long as the pros outweigh the cons. But there is scant evidence that the most recent runup in prices is sustainable once the easy money goes away.
riverside be in riverside county.
si.
keep buying coastal.... always buy coastal.... next 20 years another several million are moving to California... most to the coast.
“There is a very real possibility that prices will fall dramatically in the near future”
What tea bag did you pull these leaves out of? Lipton?
Ah. That makes sense, certainly the Inland Empire is what I’d call it. But San Bernardino is SO different from Riverside! Oh well.
Virtual land is not limited. 2,000 people can live in luxury on a one acre plot by building a sky scrapper on it. Land prices can only go so high before it's cheaper to build up. Falling birth rates and new building technologies mean there will be an oversupply of real estate in the future.
BUMP!
You may be right, though of course I hope you're not! ;^) I wouldn't be surprised to see prices drop, but I would be surprised to see them drop dramatically. Even in the Valley, where things are much different than in So Cal. The wildcard is how resourceful people can be in overcoming challenges. I am SO GRATEFUL that we had the (uncharacteristic!) smarts to turn down a loan guy that was trying his best to talk us into an ARM. Instead we got in on a 30-year fixed at 6 percent with no prepayment penalty. An ARM would have made sense if we'd planned on selling our house in five years, but we plan on staying put for as long as God will have us!
Had we wanted to sell our place after a few years, we'd not have made much if any profit, as the property (barring improvements we've made to it) would sell today for about as much as we paid for it three years ago. Flippers have been eating the big green wienie, and I have to say that's a bit gratifying, as we saw many homes that were ridiculously overpriced by flippers hoping to make big quick profits. They pushed the market as far as it would go, and the market finaly said: Go screw yourselves, flippers!
I'm by nature a pollyanna, and am weird enough to absolutely LOVE Southern California (I was not born and raised here; I come from a small town, rural and scenic coastal region). I never thought I'd EVER be a believer in So Cal, but I am. I love the dynamism here, the entrepreneurial spirit, the innovation in capitalism, the underlying resourcefulness and imagination of the people here. Yes, traffic sucks and illegal immigrants are a drain. Yet my perspective is from the Front Lines, and I see the ways many people manouevre around such challenges. The Northridge Earthquake taught me how easy it is to underestimate the people here. So I (eternal optimist) have hopes that all the things you list will become resolved for the better in ways we can't imagine from our present vantage point.
Now, that's an interesting possibility.
Would 'near future' mean sometime before the sun becomes a red giant?
Don't know your location in the state but in most areas luxury homes start at $1M with the median at about $2.5M. In the poorest part of the state, the San Joaquin Valley, some new, 3 bedroom and most new, 2 story, 5 bedroom homes are now at about $500K. These are tract homes by mega builders like KB and Glennwood, not custom jobs on an acre.
I mean 3000+ square feet starting at 500K. McMansions I believe they are called. Almost all new tract homes in the state start at 500K and go up to 1 million, often in the same tract. My point being is that there are really no entry level homes being built anywhere in California.
A McMansion is an entry level home for multiple Mexican families. Many smaller communities in the Central Valley have banned the practice of multiple family occupancy in a single residence to preserver their community's tax base. That ban has been imposed on developers, not buyers.
There’s no bubble. Inflation is being held in check by the troubled housing market but other signs are: strong metal prices (many mines being opened after years of being capped) and oil prices at an all-time high. Real estate is the third item that betrays an inflationary cycle... mostly brought on by the binge spending in Washington. The time to pay the piper must come someday.
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