Coalition, Iraqi forces launch Operation Phantom Strike

The Fourth Rail ^ | 8/13/07 | Bill Roggio

[bnelson44]

Operation designed to uproot al Qaeda and Iranian-backed terror groups

With one month left before General David Petraeus’ report to Congress on the status of progress in Iraq, Iraqi and Coalition forces have launched the next phase of security operations designed to pursue al Qaeda in Iraq, and the Iranian–backed Special Groups terror cells and the rogue Mahdi Army elements. Operation Phantom Strike was launched today, and “consists of simultaneous operations throughout Iraq focused on pursuing remaining AQI terrorists and Iranian-supported extremist elements.”

[bnelson44]

ping

[epluribus_2]

Where’s Mookie?

[timer]

Could they quantify “remaining AQI elements”? If there is a virtually unlimited supply of AQI wannabes out there, “remaining AQI elements” could be 10 million...

[bnelson44]

Iran

[Southack]

It’s difficult to quantify what remains of Anti-Iraqi Forces (AIF) of all stripes (e.g. Al Qaeda, Iranian Special Groups, rogue militia, etc.).

...But those combined AIF groups never managed to sustain more than 5 allied combat fatalities per day for any extended period of time (e.g. a month).

And their daily bombings have been cut in half since the surge, down to slightly more than just 2 per day over all of Iraq (a country larger than Texas). Imagine just two mines being detonated on June 6, 1944 at Normandy!

Likewise, the very top Al Qaeda brass has been superceded in video releases by AQ officers low on the totem poll (an American!) Adam Gadahn, for instance...impotently pleading for the Islamist world to topple Musharaff in Pakistan.

That’s less viable than the dying Confederacy calling for Lincoln’s head, and it’s a clear sign of weakness.

Taken in sum, Al Qaeda leadership and recruitment have been disrupted. This filters down to the field level where bombings are declining even though combat has intensified against them.

Historically, the opposite was the case. As Soviet troops advanced on Berlin, bombings against them increased. As U.S. ships approached Tokyo, suicide attacks increased.

In both of those cases the enemy command structure was intact, however...rational defense tactics were in place (e.g. they had reserves) and the motivation for survival intensified as Allied forces closed in on them.

So if just the above known public information was all one could use to draw a conclusion, and if a conclusion had to be drawn, then you’d be left saying that the AIF command structure was not intact, but that Allied forces weren’t closing in on their remaining leadership, either.

And from the above you’d probably say that enemy recruitment and funding would be down, as well as that resource utilization would be inefficient for them.

Or in layman’s terms, the enemy would be expected to put up less of a fight in the near future based on the above.

So in that sense the Surge is working, but it will take that plus some high level enemy captures to draw down this insurgency to the next lower level.

[timer]

A good post, thank you. Like most americans, I question the “model” here : a growing guerilla war like vietnam or a declining “police action”. In other words, is there a virtually endless supply of foreign terrorists that will continue to pour into iraq thru syria/iran, ie, a ho chi mingh highway thru laos/cambodia; or LA street gangs that the LAPD rides herd on?

As I see it, the iraqis are inept fumble bunnies for the most part, although some of them are good policemen/ soldiers, this is the why behind the surge, they just aren’t ready to take full command of their own country yet. We can’t do THEIR job forever.

So I guess it comes down to MONEY. Saddam drove those people into extreme poverty for 2 generations. Now we have to cough up the money to not only bring it out of a medieval economy but defend them as well. Colin Powell was right in asking : what is your exit strategy? Iraq is but one country in the ME, is each one going to cost us the same to invade/rebuild/defend?

Yes, our casualties in iraq w/about 150,000 “peace” officers there is at about the same rate as 150,000 “peace” officers in the US over the past years. Compared with our casualties in past wars, that underscores the “police action” model.

To help make the case for the “police action” model then, to educate the US public(and counter the MSM spin), why doesn’t someone put the casualty losses there vs deaths/injuries in the US/world population at large in perspective. How many die from traffic accidents/yr, or falls, all the insurance company stats? If Gen Petraeus had that info to include in his report next month, the graphs alone would show just who and what the anti-war crowd are, making mountains out of molehills...

[jveritas]

God bless our troops. On to Victory.

[rfp1234]

—remaining AQI terrorists and Iranian-supported extremist elements.—

Must be a typo, it should read “extremist eXCRements”

[rfp1234]

—why doesn’t someone put the casualty losses there vs deaths/injuries in the US/world population at large in perspective. How many die from traffic accidents/yr, or falls, all the insurance company stats?—

For the same reasons people like Drudge get fired for posting photos of aborted fetuses...it’s politically incorrect.

[timer]

The TRUTH is the TRUTH, leave the liberals/MSM to mumble in their mugs about it. You see, we are winning militarily but they are attacking w/the press as their only viable weapon. Once americans see visually how LOW our casualties are in this WOT, they won’t be fooled anymore by the PC crowd. We lost about 3000 in Pearl Harbor, and on 9/11/1 as well, 2 war-starting incidents 60 years apart. 50,000 casualties in WW II, how many so far in the WOT? Let the TRUTH be known.

[SandRat]

FR WAR NEWS!

WAR News at Home and Abroad You'll Hear Nowhere Else!

All the News the MSM refuses to use!

Or if they do report it, without the anti-War Agenda Spin!

[colorado tanker]

So if just the above known public information was all one could use to draw a conclusion, and if a conclusion had to be drawn, then you’d be left saying that the AIF command structure was not intact, but that Allied forces weren’t closing in on their remaining leadership, either.

OTOH, the core AQ elements are foreign fighters, so they always have the option of relocating. And in the past their leaders have shown a penchant for not fighting "to the death" despite their propaganda.

Thanks for the post. I just wish we'd changed tactics a couple of years earlier.

[Marine_Uncle]

Nice analysis South. And hard to disagree on any points made.
I would only add the part of the equation where the Iraqi military and police forces are being uptrained and better equiped to in some cases allow fully independent actions with little or no interface with US forces in a few of the provinces.