Posted on 08/12/2007 10:38:32 AM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
I've done some digging into the recent scandal over how GISS has quietly changed its data to reflect the fact that 1998 is no longer the warmest year on American record.
However, thanks to the resources of the Wayback Machine of WebArchive, I've discovered that the 1998 data has not been quite so high for a while.
Let's recall that the newly reevaluted figures are as follows:
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.26 * 1881 .29 * 1882 .07 -.24 1883 -.68 -.30 1884 -.63 -.41 1885 -.54 -.46 1886 -.28 -.39 1887 -.17 -.21 1888 -.32 -.06 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .20 -.11 1891 -.20 -.19 1892 -.51 -.21 1893 -.72 -.38 1894 .17 -.30 1895 -.66 -.22 1896 .19 -.10 1897 -.08 -.22 1898 -.15 .03 1899 -.41 .00 1900 .57 -.01 1901 .05 -.11 1902 -.13 -.13 1903 -.65 -.34 1904 -.48 -.35 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.02 -.21 1907 -.24 -.17 1908 .14 -.02 1909 -.27 .02 1910 .28 -.11 1911 .17 -.15 1912 -.88 -.08 1913 -.03 -.16 1914 .09 -.29 1915 -.15 -.33 1916 -.50 -.31 1917 -1.06 -.35 1918 .06 -.40 1919 -.10 -.07 1920 -.41 .17 1921 1.15 .15 1922 .18 .02 1923 -.07 .17 1924 -.74 -.05 1925 .36 -.05 1926 .04 -.02 1927 .15 .01 1928 .07 -.03 1929 -.58 .18 1930 .16 .15 1931 1.08 .27 1932 .00 .63 1933 .68 .61 1934 1.25 .44 1935 .04 .41 1936 .21 .45 1937 -.13 .37 1938 .86 .36 1939 .85 .45 1940 .03 .49 1941 .61 .35 1942 .09 .21 1943 .17 .19 1944 .14 .22 1945 -.03 .22 1946 .72 .17 1947 .10 .18 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .20 -.10 1950 -.28 -.05 1951 -.42 .14 1952 .32 .27 1953 .90 .32 1954 .85 .47 1955 -.03 .43 1956 .29 .26 1957 .14 .13 1958 .06 .08 1959 .17 .02 1960 -.24 -.01 1961 -.02 .02 1962 -.02 -.03 1963 .19 -.01 1964 -.07 -.05 1965 -.11 -.07 1966 -.24 -.16 1967 -.10 -.19 1968 -.28 -.19 1969 -.23 -.16 1970 -.11 -.21 1971 -.10 -.11 1972 -.35 -.03 1973 .24 -.05 1974 .15 -.08 1975 -.20 .06 1976 -.25 -.09 1977 .37 -.24 1978 -.52 -.16 1979 -.60 .02 1980 .22 -.12 1981 .64 -.02 1982 -.36 .10 1983 -.01 -.03 1984 .00 -.01 1985 -.42 .22 1986 .73 .29 1987 .83 .25 1988 .32 .51 1989 -.19 .50 1990 .87 .40 1991 .69 .25 1992 .30 .38 1993 -.44 .27 1994 .46 .10 1995 .34 .05 1996 -.17 .38 1997 .03 .47 1998 1.23 .51 1999 .93 .69 2000 .52 .79 2001 .76 .65 2002 .53 .55 2003 .50 .58 2004 .44 .66 2005 .69 * 2006 1.13 * ---------------------------------
As you can see, 1998's temperature variation is smaller than 1934's, meaning the the temperature anamoly in 1934 was greater than 1998's: and since they're both compared to the same relative mean (1951-1980, according to the graphs page of GISTEMP of GISS.), then 1934's recorded temperature is greater than 1998's. With this in mind, you can see that 1921 is third at 1.15, with 2006 in 4th at 1.13, with 1931 at fifth at 1.08.
Now, we've been hearing that the data has shown that 1998 was previously higher. Most sources I've read, such as Global Warming Hoax have pointed out that the figures before the reevaluation pointed 1998 to be 1.24, with 1934 at 1.23.
But the data pulled from the Wayback Machine Web Archives paints a different picture. Recall that these are archived pages. They cannot reflect the reevaluated figures because they are separated from GISS. They cannot be altered; they are pictures, snapshots of a particular point in time. With that in mind, keep on reading.
Let's go back to September 01, 2006. Amidst the menagerie of broken images, you can click on the DATA & IMAGES toolbar up top. Then go to GISS Surface Air Temperature Analysis. Now Graphs. Scroll down Annual Mean Temperature Change in the United States and click on tabular data. What do we get?
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.41 .13 1881 .15 -.14 1882 -.04 -.34 1883 -.70 -.36 1884 -.73 -.44 1885 -.50 -.48 1886 -.25 -.39 1887 -.21 -.19 1888 -.28 -.05 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .23 -.10 1891 -.24 -.17 1892 -.47 -.21 1893 -.66 -.39 1894 .11 -.31 1895 -.69 -.24 1896 .17 -.14 1897 -.12 -.25 1898 -.17 .00 1899 -.43 -.02 1900 .54 -.01 1901 .07 -.11 1902 -.09 -.11 1903 -.65 -.31 1904 -.41 -.34 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.06 -.21 1907 -.22 -.18 1908 .11 -.02 1909 -.25 .01 1910 .31 -.12 1911 .11 -.17 1912 -.89 -.11 1913 -.13 -.21 1914 .03 -.33 1915 -.16 -.36 1916 -.51 -.32 1917 -1.00 -.36 1918 .02 -.42 1919 -.15 -.10 1920 -.45 .12 1921 1.08 .10 1922 .11 -.01 1923 -.09 .15 1924 -.70 -.05 1925 .38 -.04 1926 .04 -.01 1927 .16 .02 1928 .05 -.03 1929 -.54 .16 1930 .11 .12 1931 1.00 .24 1932 -.01 .60 1933 .66 .58 1934 1.24 .42 1935 .05 .40 1936 .18 .43 1937 -.12 .34 1938 .78 .34 1939 .80 .41 1940 .04 .45 1941 .54 .32 1942 .07 .18 1943 .16 .17 1944 .09 .20 1945 -.01 .20 1946 .67 .15 1947 .09 .17 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .18 -.08 1950 -.23 -.04 1951 -.38 .15 1952 .30 .28 1953 .88 .31 1954 .82 .44 1955 -.05 .41 1956 .28 .25 1957 .14 .12 1958 .07 .09 1959 .16 .03 1960 -.22 .00 1961 .00 .02 1962 -.02 -.03 1963 .19 .00 1964 -.08 -.05 1965 -.12 -.07 1966 -.24 -.16 1967 -.10 -.19 1968 -.27 -.19 1969 -.23 -.16 1970 -.12 -.22 1971 -.10 -.11 1972 -.36 -.04 1973 .25 -.05 1974 .15 -.08 1975 -.20 .07 1976 -.23 -.09 1977 .36 -.23 1978 -.51 -.15 1979 -.58 .03 1980 .22 -.12 1981 .65 -.01 1982 -.36 .10 1983 .01 -.02 1984 .01 -.01 1985 -.41 .23 1986 .73 .30 1987 .84 .26 1988 .33 .52 1989 -.17 .51 1990 .88 .41 1991 .69 .26 1992 .31 .38 1993 -.43 .28 1994 .47 .10 1995 .35 .05 1996 -.18 .38 1997 .05 .48 1998 1.24 .54 1999 .94 .55 2000 .65 .88 2001 .89 .76 2002 .67 .68 2003 .65 .75 2004 .54 * 2005 .99 * ------------------------------------------------------
Now we see that 1998 and 1934 are tied at 1.24. Not reflective of the truth, but different than the spouted line that 1998 was hotter than 1934. 1921 and 1931 are much colder in this snapshot; 1.08 and 1.00 respectively. You'll notice that one big jump is 2005: at .99, its reevaluated figure of .69 is a tremendous fall.
Things get odder as we go further back in time, however. August 03, 2004. Follow the same path I described above to the data for U.S. temperature, up to 2003. Here's where things get REALLY interesting.
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.41 .13 1881 .15 -.14 1882 -.04 -.34 1883 -.70 -.36 1884 -.73 -.44 1885 -.50 -.48 1886 -.25 -.39 1887 -.21 -.19 1888 -.28 -.05 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .23 -.10 1891 -.24 -.17 1892 -.47 -.21 1893 -.66 -.39 1894 .11 -.31 1895 -.69 -.24 1896 .17 -.14 1897 -.12 -.25 1898 -.17 .00 1899 -.43 -.02 1900 .54 -.01 1901 .07 -.11 1902 -.09 -.11 1903 -.65 -.31 1904 -.41 -.34 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.06 -.21 1907 -.22 -.18 1908 .11 -.02 1909 -.25 .01 1910 .31 -.12 1911 .11 -.17 1912 -.89 -.11 1913 -.13 -.21 1914 .03 -.33 1915 -.16 -.36 1916 -.51 -.32 1917 -1.00 -.36 1918 .02 -.42 1919 -.15 -.10 1920 -.45 .12 1921 1.08 .10 1922 .11 -.01 1923 -.09 .15 1924 -.70 -.05 1925 .38 -.04 1926 .04 -.01 1927 .16 .02 1928 .05 -.03 1929 -.54 .16 1930 .11 .12 1931 1.00 .24 1932 -.01 .60 1933 .66 .58 1934 1.24 .42 1935 .05 .40 1936 .18 .43 1937 -.12 .34 1938 .78 .34 1939 .80 .41 1940 .04 .45 1941 .54 .32 1942 .07 .18 1943 .16 .17 1944 .09 .20 1945 -.01 .20 1946 .67 .15 1947 .09 .17 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .18 -.08 1950 -.23 -.04 1951 -.38 .15 1952 .30 .28 1953 .88 .31 1954 .82 .44 1955 -.05 .41 1956 .28 .25 1957 .14 .12 1958 .07 .09 1959 .16 .03 1960 -.22 .00 1961 .00 .03 1962 .00 -.03 1963 .19 -.01 1964 -.10 -.05 1965 -.13 -.07 1966 -.22 -.17 1967 -.08 -.19 1968 -.30 -.19 1969 -.21 -.17 1970 -.13 -.22 1971 -.11 -.11 1972 -.32 -.03 1973 .23 -.05 1974 .18 -.08 1975 -.22 .05 1976 -.26 -.09 1977 .35 -.24 1978 -.49 -.15 1979 -.58 .03 1980 .23 -.11 1981 .64 -.02 1982 -.35 .10 1983 -.03 -.03 1984 .02 -.01 1985 -.40 .21 1986 .71 .28 1987 .76 .25 1988 .32 .50 1989 -.15 .49 1990 .85 .40 1991 .65 .25 1992 .30 .38 1993 -.40 .28 1994 .48 .12 1995 .36 .07 1996 -.14 .39 1997 .05 .49 1998 1.20 .54 1999 .95 .75 2000 .65 .83 2001 .89 .68 2002 .45 * 2003 .48 * ---------------------------------
Hold up. 1998 is now at 1.20. This puts it BEHIND 1934 as the hottest year on record, which is still at 1.24. As a matter of fact, in this archived page, 2002 and 2003 (.45, and .48 respectively) are all COLDER than the reevaluated figures show (.53, and .59 respectively). As another oddity, 1999 and 2001 are both hotter in the archived figures than they are in reevaluated data(compare .95 to .93 for 1999, and .89 to .76 for 2001). More and more changes abound, hotter and colder all around. What gives?
The most glowing difference nonetheless remains the change in data for 1998. It is colder than 1934.
And as we go back to the GISS page as archived on October 16, 2002, we see that the tabular data for U.S. temperatures goes only as far as 1999. Let's compare again.
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.41 .13 1881 .15 -.14 1882 -.04 -.34 1883 -.70 -.36 1884 -.73 -.44 1885 -.50 -.48 1886 -.25 -.39 1887 -.21 -.19 1888 -.28 -.05 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .23 -.10 1891 -.24 -.17 1892 -.47 -.21 1893 -.66 -.39 1894 .11 -.31 1895 -.69 -.24 1896 .17 -.14 1897 -.12 -.25 1898 -.17 .00 1899 -.43 -.02 1900 .54 -.01 1901 .07 -.11 1902 -.09 -.11 1903 -.65 -.31 1904 -.41 -.34 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.06 -.21 1907 -.22 -.18 1908 .11 -.02 1909 -.25 .01 1910 .31 -.12 1911 .11 -.17 1912 -.89 -.11 1913 -.13 -.21 1914 .03 -.33 1915 -.16 -.36 1916 -.51 -.32 1917 -1.00 -.36 1918 .02 -.42 1919 -.15 -.10 1920 -.45 .12 1921 1.08 .10 1922 .11 -.01 1923 -.09 .15 1924 -.70 -.05 1925 .38 -.04 1926 .04 -.01 1927 .16 .02 1928 .05 -.03 1929 -.54 .16 1930 .11 .12 1931 1.00 .24 1932 -.01 .60 1933 .66 .58 1934 1.24 .42 1935 .05 .40 1936 .18 .43 1937 -.12 .34 1938 .78 .34 1939 .80 .41 1940 .04 .45 1941 .54 .32 1942 .07 .18 1943 .16 .17 1944 .09 .20 1945 -.01 .20 1946 .67 .15 1947 .09 .17 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .18 -.08 1950 -.23 -.04 1951 -.38 .15 1952 .30 .28 1953 .88 .31 1954 .82 .44 1955 -.05 .41 1956 .28 .25 1957 .14 .12 1958 .07 .09 1959 .16 .03 1960 -.22 .00 1961 .00 .03 1962 .00 -.03 1963 .19 -.01 1964 -.10 -.05 1965 -.13 -.07 1966 -.22 -.17 1967 -.08 -.19 1968 -.30 -.19 1969 -.21 -.17 1970 -.13 -.22 1971 -.11 -.11 1972 -.32 -.03 1973 .23 -.05 1974 .18 -.08 1975 -.22 .05 1976 -.26 -.09 1977 .35 -.24 1978 -.49 -.15 1979 -.58 .03 1980 .23 -.11 1981 .64 -.02 1982 -.35 .10 1983 -.03 -.03 1984 .02 -.01 1985 -.40 .21 1986 .71 .28 1987 .76 .25 1988 .32 .50 1989 -.15 .49 1990 .85 .40 1991 .65 .25 1992 .30 .38 1993 -.40 .28 1994 .48 .12 1995 .36 .07 1996 -.14 .39 1997 .05 .49 1998 1.20 * 1999 .95 * ---------------------------------
1998 remains at 1.20. 1934 is still the hottest year on record in America...and all before this latest hubbub over altered data.
So what does this say?
Considering James Hansen's refusal to reveal the algorithms used to originally calculate the faulty data, this speaks of not just an effort to hide NASA/GISS's screw up (especially considering the media silence on this), but of a blatant, outright falsehood that's been perpetrated over the last several years.
1998, until now, was claimed to be the hottest year on record. That claim was made using faulty data. And yet the faulty data that this claim was made on says something different altogether!
It says a lot about the character of the pushers of manmade global warming when both the truth (the reevaluated data) and the lie (the archived data) both say that they're wrong. Yikes.
What did you conclude? Who changed the data, and did they do it correctly?
I was pinging you to this thread because others have noticed changes in the various temperature records too and have realized that 1998 is not the hottest year in the latest temperature records although it used to be before some significant data massaging occurred. See the posts above.
I can't tell if the changes to the temperature record were appropriate or made correctly without looking at them in detail. I think the agencies that post the temperature data owe it to the public to explain the changes that have been made to the data in terms the public can understand. Simply having a footnote saying the data have been homogenized does nothing but create skepticism and hurts their reputation.
The people who post temperature tables on the web would help their own credibility if they provided links to papers that describe in detail how and why the various changes were made along with many specific examples. Alternatively, some among them may have the ability to explain things clearly to the informed lay public or lay scientists without resorting to incomprehensible jargon.
There are some interesting posts and links about the data changes and manipulation on the following thread [Link]. The discussion on the climateaudit link you brought to my attention [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1142] was informative as well.
Great Ultra!
We wouldn’t want you suddenly disappearing!
I got that: 1998 doesn’t stand as the hottest year for the US, although it does still remains first or second as the hottest year globally, since the 1880s.
I agree we could use more plain talk about who adjusted the data and why they adjusted it, with varying levels of detail for varying levels of scientific skill and experience. This applies to the whole topic.
Thanks for the FR thread tip! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1879260/posts.
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