Posted on 08/07/2007 9:10:49 PM PDT by Nonstatist
It’s a dirty job, but somebody has to do it! ;>)
Actually it’s not bad, as you’ve probably noticed I’m pretty feisty!
good thing too
Gee, if he sneezes....will he blow them out his nostrils?
starting in 2000 he hit 49 (35), 73 (36), 46 (37), 45 (38), 45 (38). Until then his career high was 46 at age 38. he did hit 42 at age 31, and then his performance dropped off every year until 2000.
Coincidentally, McGwire and Sosa had the "miracle year" in 1998, right when Barry was beginning his decline. The next year, Sosa again hit 60+ while Barry fought the standard injuries of old age and slipped even more.
Then suddenly in 2000, just coincidently right after Sosa/mcGwire and the start of Barry's injury woes -- he suddenly gained weight, started hitting not just 25% more homeruns, but started hitting 10-60 points above his career average.
Bill James created a tool years ago called "Favorite Toy" that projected a players career numbers from any age onward -- the favorite toy has been used by many people for years because it was found to be uncannily accurate in predicting performance. The basica are this - the formula takes into account the players age and performance for the last 3 season, it then projects how much longer the player will play and what they will produce from that point.
here is what the tool projected for barry after the 1999 season -- he was 34 and his last 3 seasons had produced 40, 37, 34 HRs which is right in line with a player reaching that age.
The tool projects that Barry will play 3.6 more FULL seasons (which at the pace he was playing equated to 5-6 actual seasons, putting him at 39-40 years old), it porjected 36 HR's per FULL season.
Results -- Barry would hit 130 more HR in his career. After 1999 Barry was at 445 HR -- so the projection was for him to hit 575 HR by the end of his career.
Now, Barry has played 6.02 FULL seasons since 1999 so lets give him the benefit of the doubt -- that mean he would project to 218 HR to this point. Putting him at 663 for his career.
Now for arguments sake let's look at Hank Aaron at age 34. He was at 510 at age 34 - and hit 245 HR the rest of his career.
The Toy projects 35 HR with 3.6 FULL seasons left -- 125 HR putting him at 635 for his career. So based on raw projection Aaron should have hit 635 to Bonds 575. BUT, we know that Hank actually played 6.3 FULL season (wow the same amount as Barry) -- meaning he projects to 220 more home runs -- giving him an actual projection OF 730 HR.
So Aaron projects to 730 and hit 755 -- Bonds meanwhile projected to 663 and is now at 756. So the Favorite Toy was pretty close to it's historical accuracy with Aaron, but way off with Bonds.
Just for kicks -- the Favorite Toy projects A-Rod to hit 790 HR. :-)
Until then his career high was 46 at age 38 — UGH age 28!!!!!
Excellent post, L.N.
I call this pigpile BDS: Bonds Derangement Syndrome. I, too, believe that he used and abused steroids. But yes, illegally leaked grand jury testimony (a little rule of law here for the MSM?) and the blazing hypocrisy of Bud “Let’s Have a Tie” Selig, used car dealer commissioner, doesn’t exactly cover them in glory, either.
PS - Mike Bacsic impressed the hell out of me in his postgame interview.
Independently arrived at - I've been using that phrase for a while, too. GMTA. :-)
Honored to be in such good company!! By the way, love the statement on your home page! GMDTA! ;>)
Don’t misunderstand - I have no idea if he’s taking steroids or not. I just think the criticisms, including this Toy calculator, are not good indicators of whether he did steroids or not.
BTW, I don’t know his birthday, so I assumed it was after the season. That’s why I counted 3 X 40 HR seasons instead of 4.
Wow. Someone else who can use reason and think on a thread like this. Amazing. Thanks for the post.
I really just don’t care. But it is interesting that according to statistics that Babe Ruth hit 715 HR’s in only 5500 times at bat and it has taken Barry Bonds over 8500 times to beat Hank Aaron’s record. Maybe Hot Dogs and Beer really work better than steroids.
As stated in an earlier post, any reason to hate this man will do for those who hate this man. You just proved my point for me. Thanks.
Then you explain why my shoe size increased by one and a half sizes, and why my hat size increased by one size. I didn’t take any growth hormones, but experienced these changes.
Is not the "clear" an externally used product?
Thanks for this post and the ping. I love reading someone who has a clear and rational approach to an issue.
He was tested. He’s the most tested man in Baseball. That aside, If he used (and I’ve never said he didn’t) and they didn’t catch him, then Baseball is to fault for that.
Could be, but Bonds isn't done. He has the highest on-base % in MLB this year (.479), and obviously he can still hit the long ball. As I mentioned earlier in the thread Bonds knows full well A-Rod will be breathing down his neck in a few years and therefore wants to put this record out of sight. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up around 850. ...or higher. Especially if he can get a gig in the AL as a DH.
Obviously. But the issue at hand isn't muscle mass, it's bone mass. And working with weights doesn't increase the latter.
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