So with the exception of the perennial candidate, Lyndon Larouche, it was just before the LAST election that folks started jumping in early. Doesn’t mean anyone HAS to do that, they just chose to do that.
Wrong again.
Presidential candidate entry, 2000 race:
Smith: Feb 18, 1999
Nader: Feb 21, 1999
Buchannan: Mar 2, 1999
Alexander: Mar 9, 1999
Forbes: Mar 16, 1999
Quayle: April 14, 1999
Bauer: Apr 21, 1999
Gore: June 16, 1999
Bush: June 12, 1999
Hatch: July 1, 1999
Bradley: Sep 8, 1999
Keyes: Sep 20, 1999
McCain: Sept 27, 1999
The fact is that a Fall entry is late in the game. Even more so with the big states moving up their primaries to January. If you back out the extra 7 weeks that Super Tuesday used to allow, that means that the eventual candidates from 2000 would have been declaring in late April or early May.
We are now in August. Deduct the 7 weeks here, and that makes today the equivalent of end of Sept, 2000.
FYI:
In California, the deadline to be on the published list of candidates is Oct. 8, 2007. After that, to be on the ballot, the candidate needs to circulate a petition, gaining at least 1% of CA registered Republican signatures between Oct. 24 and Nov. 23. Nov. 23 is the deadline for candidacy in the CA GOP primary.
I assume most states have similar deadlines about 4 months out from their primaries.