Posted on 08/06/2007 1:48:10 PM PDT by Fred
2008 Republican Presidential Primary Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination
Entering the month of August, it is quite easy to come up with an explanation for why each of the leading Republican Presidential candidates will not win their Party’s nomination.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is personally popular and has a solid core of support. But, it is easy to argue that America’s Mayor can’t win the nomination because his views on social and cultural issues step with a more conservative political party (just 27% of Republican voters see Giuliani as politically conservative while 68% say moderate or liberal). In this view, there is a ceiling to Giuliani’s potential support and he will not be embraced by a majority of Republican Primary Voters.
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is looking good as a non-candidate and has soared in early polling. But it is easy to envision Thompson tanking once he formally enters the race and is forced to endure the grind of debates and other routine challenges. Some Washington insiders expect Fred to fizzle and whisper questions about a lack of substance or fire in his belly. As with all such whispering campaigns, it is hard to separate legitimate expectations from the hopes of some insiders.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney looks good on camera, on his resume, and in his bank account. But, he has failed to gain traction with GOP voters nationally. Even his advantage in New Hampshire polling is disconcertingly small for those who dream of Mitt in the White House. After all, he has a home field advantage in that state and is the only candidate so far to spend money advertising on television in that state. If he can’t dominate the field under those circumstances, how will he gain enough support to win the nomination? Besides that, 31% of Republican Voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Finally, there’s Arizona Senator John McCain. Of the four candidates in double digits, it’s the easiest to show why he won’t win the nomination. Within his own party, McCain is viewed favorably 54% and unfavorably by 40%. It is difficult to comprehend how anyone could win their party nomination with such high unfavorables among the party faithful. His long history of provoking conservatives was highlighted by his politically disastrous performance during the Senate debate over immigration. If you consider the financial crunch being faced by his campaign, the massive staff defections of the past month, and the negative impact of spectacularly missed expectations, it’s easy to count McCain out.
But, while it is easy to explain why each of those men will not win the GOP nomination, one of them will. McCain is certainly the least likely. His only hope at this point lies in the fact that the other three may all lose ground in the coming months.
It’s also tough for Romney to win without some help. However, if Thompson falters, Romney might be in the right place to pick up the pieces for Republicans who want somebody other than Giuliani.
It’s easier to see a path to victory for Thompson or Giuliani. Thompson has to show he’s for real after entering the race while Giuliani has to demonstrate he can reach out to some GOP voters who don’t share his position on cultural issues. But, those are significant challenges for the frontrunners.
It’s worth noting that in polling for the week ending August 5, 38% of GOP Likely Primary Voters support the top two candidates thought most appealing for conservative (Thompson and Romney). At the same time, 36% support the candidates thought most appealing to moderates in the party (Giuliani and McCain). Eighteen percent (18%) remain undecided.
Those latest weekly numbers show Giuliani with 25%, Thompson 24%, Romney 14% and McCain at 11%. Mike Huckabee earns support from 3%, Sam Brownback from 2% and four other candidates split 2% of the vote. Those candidates, mentioned by name in the polling question, are Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson (review history of weekly results).
Cute. Very cute.
Ron Paul not on the radar ping.
I cannot support ANY of the pretenders.
All four of the front runners are pretenders to one degree or another.
We must have one of the outsiders break out... or we WILL get Clinton again.
MSM and polls are meaningless to me. They are not going to tell me who to support. I don’t care if the polls say zero-Hunter has my vote come hell or high water.
I don’t totally agree with Paul or Tancredo, but I’m not going to tell their supporters that they don’t stand a chance.
In my very humble opinion, it is too early to call right now. I believe we’re so divided about Iraq and Illegal immigration that it could be anyone’s race and if we believe in a particular candidate’s stance, we should vote accordingly and stick with our principles. Republican or Democrat(ouch-that hurt!)
- No, the real problem is that the MSM hasn’t yet decided who the candidate should be. When they make up their mind, you’ll be the first to fall in line.
The candidates with only a few percentage points in the polls will fall away, eventually, as they won't be able to raise the millions needed to compete. Until then, I say: let them stay. It's their right to run and to speak out on the issues as long as they can remain in the race.
The GOP rank-and-file 'anger' is real (I share it) but it's mostly directed at RINO's like John McCain, not folks like Fred Thompson, who has a decent political record and came out against the ridiculous, recently defeated immigration 'reform' (amnesty) bill. Rudy Giuliani is affable and tempting as a possible GOP presidential candidate but I just don't trust him, and I don't think I'm alone. Same for Mitt Romney. I can see these guys morphing into a 'Democrat-lite' president within a year of being elected. I won't risk it. This country cannot afford either a Marxist (Democrat) or even a pseudo-Democrat in the White House.
If Thompson stumbles or otherwise shows himself to be someone I cannot support for the GOP presidential nomination, I'll look elsewhere - but never at McCain. I'll stay home on (primary) election day, first, which I've never done. I'm that disgusted with McCain. I would, however, vote for anyone, even John McCain, against Hillary Clinton, who I consider dangerous. However, I don't believe that McCain has a prayer of winning the '08 Republican presidential nomination, so I'm not too concerned.
I still like Fred Thompson. I just wish he would declare before he loses momentum. I expect he won't let that happen. If he does, it'll be his own fault.
Meanwhile, lets remember that we're still well over a year away from the primary election(s) and 15 months from the general. Anything can happen. Anything.
Not McCain?
where there's smoke, there might not be fire.
You got me pegged. I’m a “1” and for Rudy.
Yeah, Bill Clinton didn't have fire in the belly.
He did have "fire in the pants", but there's a shot for that kind of thing and he's better now.
I like Fred but ain’t it time he either poop or get off the pot?
Clausawitz (sp?) said that war has there aspects: emotion, reason and chance. Politics is much the same. What is always underestimated is emotion.
I think you are wrong on not placing Mitt as a good candidate if WOT is a #1 concern. Why? He’s got five boys, 5 daughter in laws - and heaven only knows how many grandchildren he will end up with. As well he has a wife whom he has been married to for decades. Family is #1 with Mitt as evidenced by his success and devotion in that aspect of his life. Thus, it stands to reason, that protecting that family and their way of life would be extremely important to him.
No offfense to Rudy and others, BUT, they haven’t shown anywhere near that kind of dedication. Can we really trust Rudy to fight to protect wife #3 as well as two kids whom he isn’t even on a speaking basis as much as Mitt would for his family?
We often see examples of deicated parents who risk life and limb for their families, but If someone wouldn’t run into a burning building to save his family, would you trust him to do it for his nation?
I think your cynicism has some validity, but you appear to have gone a bit over the top on Bush deliberately engineering 06 losses.
Do we want to see that happen again? Freepers have to keep this potentially horrendous end from happening, but it will if we fail to vote or fail to do all we can to see her defeated. Read Tyrell's new book, "The Clinton Crack Up" if you need a reminder of how bad the Clinton really are.
Then you may help assure a Hitlery win. Do you really want that?
“The GOP has a real credibility problem.”
Agreed. And it’s not just at the National level. It’s that way in many, many of our states as well.
The WI GOP sucks. And the leader of the WI GOP left a few months ago to work for that gun-grabbing, gay-lovin’, abortion sanctioning RINO Rudy. Grrrrr!
It’s frustrating as h#ll. I need some real razzle-dazzle common sense leadership to bring me back into the fold. So many of us feel abandoned by the GOP within our own states...and with good reason!
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