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Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 08/06/07 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 08/06/2007 1:48:10 PM PDT by Fred

2008 Republican Presidential Primary Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination

Entering the month of August, it is quite easy to come up with an explanation for why each of the leading Republican Presidential candidates will not win their Party’s nomination.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is personally popular and has a solid core of support. But, it is easy to argue that America’s Mayor can’t win the nomination because his views on social and cultural issues step with a more conservative political party (just 27% of Republican voters see Giuliani as politically conservative while 68% say moderate or liberal). In this view, there is a ceiling to Giuliani’s potential support and he will not be embraced by a majority of Republican Primary Voters.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is looking good as a non-candidate and has soared in early polling. But it is easy to envision Thompson tanking once he formally enters the race and is forced to endure the grind of debates and other routine challenges. Some Washington insiders expect Fred to fizzle and whisper questions about a lack of substance or fire in his belly. As with all such whispering campaigns, it is hard to separate legitimate expectations from the hopes of some insiders.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney looks good on camera, on his resume, and in his bank account. But, he has failed to gain traction with GOP voters nationally. Even his advantage in New Hampshire polling is disconcertingly small for those who dream of Mitt in the White House. After all, he has a home field advantage in that state and is the only candidate so far to spend money advertising on television in that state. If he can’t dominate the field under those circumstances, how will he gain enough support to win the nomination? Besides that, 31% of Republican Voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Finally, there’s Arizona Senator John McCain. Of the four candidates in double digits, it’s the easiest to show why he won’t win the nomination. Within his own party, McCain is viewed favorably 54% and unfavorably by 40%. It is difficult to comprehend how anyone could win their party nomination with such high unfavorables among the party faithful. His long history of provoking conservatives was highlighted by his politically disastrous performance during the Senate debate over immigration. If you consider the financial crunch being faced by his campaign, the massive staff defections of the past month, and the negative impact of spectacularly missed expectations, it’s easy to count McCain out.

But, while it is easy to explain why each of those men will not win the GOP nomination, one of them will. McCain is certainly the least likely. His only hope at this point lies in the fact that the other three may all lose ground in the coming months.

It’s also tough for Romney to win without some help. However, if Thompson falters, Romney might be in the right place to pick up the pieces for Republicans who want somebody other than Giuliani.

It’s easier to see a path to victory for Thompson or Giuliani. Thompson has to show he’s for real after entering the race while Giuliani has to demonstrate he can reach out to some GOP voters who don’t share his position on cultural issues. But, those are significant challenges for the frontrunners.

It’s worth noting that in polling for the week ending August 5, 38% of GOP Likely Primary Voters support the top two candidates thought most appealing for conservative (Thompson and Romney). At the same time, 36% support the candidates thought most appealing to moderates in the party (Giuliani and McCain). Eighteen percent (18%) remain undecided.

Those latest weekly numbers show Giuliani with 25%, Thompson 24%, Romney 14% and McCain at 11%. Mike Huckabee earns support from 3%, Sam Brownback from 2% and four other candidates split 2% of the vote. Those candidates, mentioned by name in the polling question, are Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson (review history of weekly results).


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; electionpresident; fredheads; fredthompson; giulianitruthfile; gop; hunterites; republicans
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To: Weeedley
If he is that great, how can his following be that small?

It's entirely possible that the same "powers that be" that are foisting these worthless candidates on us are keeping the light off of the second tier.

I distrust the MSM even when (and especially) they are trying to "help" me choose political representation.

21 posted on 08/06/2007 2:17:05 PM PDT by pgyanke (Duncan Hunter 08--You want to elect a conservative? Then support a conservative!)
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia

OK—Republicans are mad at the GOP leadership. That’s the problem.


22 posted on 08/06/2007 2:20:05 PM PDT by Mamzelle (Down with Mel Martinez)
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia
The GOP base is angry, and they should be, but not at these men.

The GOP base has very good reason to be angry with McCain. The others might be evaluated on possible merits, but McCain cannot be rewarded for his behavior of the last several years.

23 posted on 08/06/2007 2:22:51 PM PDT by 3niner (War is one game where the home team always loses.)
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To: greyfoxx39

>Good for Fred...he wouldn’t be bullied. And, he didn’t stomp out either. Not a bad clip for him.<

No, too busy interrupting Cooper, calling him a liar and telling him twice to shut up. Good for Fred..... /s


24 posted on 08/06/2007 2:24:14 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( Duncan Hunter '08)
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To: xcamel
Time for the ‘also ran’ bunch to get out of the sandbox.

The bottom tier are a tad more appealing than than upper tier. None of them seem able to get any traction, however.

Regardless, the GOP field face a similar problem that the Dem field does: Too many Senators/Congressmen without any real executive experience.
25 posted on 08/06/2007 2:24:15 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Mamzelle
Article could have just said "nobody knows who is going to win too many variables at this time"...
26 posted on 08/06/2007 2:26:00 PM PDT by Fred (Democrat Party - "The Nadir of Nihilism")
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To: 3niner; Mamzelle
I stand corrected on McBain. Except for his support of the surge, he has been a real problem.

I think the GOP leadership in Congress frittered away so much. What happened to balancing the budget and cutting port barrel spending? Immigration came later and would have been a disaster if passed.

27 posted on 08/06/2007 2:26:33 PM PDT by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: greyfoxx39
Question is, how will that anger play out at the polls?

The RNC thinks the loyal will flood back when Hillary gets the Dem nod. The RNC will continue to stick its thumb in the eyes of the conservatives.

The RNC might be woefully disappointed; the conservatives might turn elsewhere.
28 posted on 08/06/2007 2:26:55 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Paperdoll

LOL! Your little crowd (and I refer to intellect when I say “little”) never stops trying, does it?


29 posted on 08/06/2007 2:28:05 PM PDT by Clara Lou
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To: Paperdoll
No, too busy interrupting Cooper, calling him a liar and telling him twice to shut up. Good for Fred.....

Good practice for dealing with the Washington press corp. when they try the same gotcha crap.

30 posted on 08/06/2007 2:29:34 PM PDT by greyfoxx39 (Re:Terrorists: Realize that it has nothing to do with what we have done but with what they want.)
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To: GeorgefromGeorgia
It isn't just frittering. It's the outright betrayal.

I've come to believe that the Bush RNC deliberately engineered at least some of our 06 losses, to give Bush an amnesty-friendly congress.

And the anti-amnesty Repubs were the very ones who followed Bush's leadership into Iraq--so Bush undermined his WOT support for Love of Vicente.

Exactly why should I listen to what he has to say about Iraq? Clearly, he does not have the war effort as his first priority.

When you don't trust the leadership of the RNC, you don't trust its candidates. The GOP has a real credibility problem.

31 posted on 08/06/2007 2:30:23 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: greyfoxx39

Yeah, well, not exactly statesman-like IMHO.


32 posted on 08/06/2007 2:33:11 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( Duncan Hunter '08)
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To: Fred

Although I’ve narrowed my choices down to either Fred or Mitt, I will completely support the GOP standard bearer, whomever that may be.

No matter who the GOP nominee is, think of what the alternative will be if the GOP fails to carry the day.


33 posted on 08/06/2007 2:34:19 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: TomGuy
“Too many Senators/Congressmen without any real executive experience.”

Since they are running against either osama or hildebeast... who is it you are contrasting this lack of executive experience against?

LLS

34 posted on 08/06/2007 2:37:18 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Support America, Kill terrorists, Destroy dims!)
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To: TomGuy

You are absolutely correct.


35 posted on 08/06/2007 2:37:28 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Our God-given unalienable rights are not open to debate, negotiation or compromise!)
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To: Bobkk47
No matter who the GOP nominee is, think of what the alternative will be if the GOP fails to carry the day.

A lot of Leftist rhetoric, but actual governance that differs only marginally from the previous eight years. Just like what happened when it went the other way in 2000.

36 posted on 08/06/2007 2:38:30 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ("Wise men don't need to debate; men who need to debate are not wise." -- Tao Te Ching)
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To: Fred
But it is easy to envision Thompson tanking once he formally enters the race and is forced to endure the grind of debates and other routine challenges. Some Washington insiders expect Fred to fizzle and whisper questions about a lack of substance or fire in his belly.

Here we go again. Unnamed "insiders" who are probably indistinguishable from a corner waste basket.

37 posted on 08/06/2007 2:42:14 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: Paperdoll

He could hire Duncan as his press secretary. That’d work, right?


38 posted on 08/06/2007 2:46:59 PM PDT by greyfoxx39 (Re:Terrorists: Realize that it has nothing to do with what we have done but with what they want.)
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To: Fred

anyone but Rudie


39 posted on 08/06/2007 2:47:00 PM PDT by showme_the_Glory (ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government)
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To: Fred

I am excited, I think we have a good group of candidates to choose from. Certainly there are a few I would have a hard time voting for in the general election, but the others I would gladly support.


40 posted on 08/06/2007 2:47:20 PM PDT by Always Right
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