National Intelligence Estimate Foresees Continued Homeland Terrorist Threat

American Forces Press Service ^ | Donna Miles

[SandRat]

WASHINGTON, July 17, 2007 – Islamic terrorist groups, particularly al Qaeda, are likely to remain a persistent threat to the U.S. homeland over the next three years, according to unclassified parts of a new National Intelligence Estimate released today.

The report, which includes input from 16 intelligence organizations, eight within the Defense Department, paints a picture of terrorists’ “undiminished intent to attack the homeland.” It notes that these groups continue to adapt and improve their capabilities, with al Qaeda promoting cooperation among them.

“Al Qaeda is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots,” the report says. It also cites al Qaeda’s influence in “pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and supplement its capabilities.”

The report notes that few people with ties to al Qaeda’s senior leadership have been discovered in the United States since 9/11. However, it predicts that al Qaeda “will intensify its efforts to put operatives here” to coordinate or carry out attacks.

“We assess that al Qaeda’s homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic and infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks and/or fear among the U.S. population,” the report states.

It notes that the network is “innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security obstacles.”

Increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have hampered al Qaeda’s ability to attack the United States again, leading it and other terrorist groups to perceive the U.S. homeland as “a harder target to strike since 9/11,” the report acknowledges.

It points out that these measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since Sept. 11.

But despite these successes, the report expresses concern that “this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.”

This is particularly troubling, the report notes, in light of the fact that al Qaeda is likely to leverage the contacts and capabilities of its most visible and capable affiliate, al Qaeda in Iraq. That organization, the report notes, has expressed a desire to attack the United States.

By associating with al Qaeda in Iraq, the larger al Qaeda network is able “to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives,” the report said.

While citing al Qaeda as the major concern, the report also points to other radical groups, including Lebanese Hezbollah and other non-Muslim extremists, as threats. In light of their violent histories, an attack from these groups over the next three years is likely, it predicts.

Globalization and technological advances are making it easier for even small groups of alienated people find and connect with each other, it notes. In doing so, they are able to “justify and intensify their anger and mobilize their resources to attack – all without requiring a centralized terrorist organization, training camp or leader.”

Eight intelligence organizations within the Defense Department contributed to the report: the Defense Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, National Reconnaissance Office and Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps Intelligence.

Related Sites:
National Intelligence Estimate

[SandRat]

FR WAR NEWS!

WAR News at Home and Abroad You'll Hear Nowhere Else!

All the News the MSM refuses to use!

Or if they do report it, without the anti-War Agenda Spin!

[ASA Vet]

MI Ping

National Intelligence Estimate released today

[ASA Vet]

SOCOM Ping

National Intelligence Estimate released today

[null and void]

"non-Muslim extremists, as threats."

Like???

[SandRat]

That Ding-A-Ling they just picked up in an FBI sting in Wyoming

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Norks ?

[Steel Wolf]

America may be tired of war, but war isn’t tired of us.

[Chi-townChief]

We’re looking at another Cold War here with this going on for a generation or two.

[Steel Wolf]

We’re looking at another Cold War here with this going on for a generation or two.

An interesting thing about the Cold War is that it united American foreign policy in a unique way. The country had left and right limits, true, but was generally behind the idea that it was necessary to oppose and resist a global communist takeover.

What we're coming into now is an era of a different nature. America is deeply divided at home as to the nature of the terrorist threat, the way to actively oppose it, or even the need to do so. That has lead to the complete unraveling of U.S. foreign policy, as witnessed in the widening gulf in Congress.

Iraq shares one similarity with Vietnam, in that many people are coming to see it as a distraction from the main struggle. What's interesting here is the lack of cohesion behind the main struggle itself. No one could serious pretend that the Soviet Union was imaginary, but many people view the threat of militant Islam as the work of a few hundred kooks. They see the real threat as coming from American power running unchecked, and are working to counter that threat instead of the one posed by terrorism.

I forget what it is they say about a house divided. Regardless, it will be difficult if not impossible to fight the War on Terror if half the country thinks (or votes for those that think) it's basically an bogeyman, not an actual threat.

[Valin]

ELF, ALF come to mind.

[Valin]

Unconquerable Nation Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves
Rand Corp. ^ | Brian Michael Jenkins
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1751170/posts
Click on above link for the rest, scroll down (Note it’s a PDF file)
I will not say that the book “Unconquerable Nation Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves” is a MUST READ. I will however say it is well worth your time and money.

And
Keyword
unconquerablenation
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=unconquerablenation

Winning the Long War: Lessons from the Cold War for Defeating Terrorism and Preserving Freedom
The Heritage Foundation ^ | James Jay Carafano, Ph.D. & Paul Rosenzweig
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1430965/posts
Or
http://www.heritage.org/Research/HomelandDefense/the-long-war-prologue.cfm

[null and void]

Point

[Travis McGee]

[Valin]

non-Muslim extremists

[nw_arizona_granny]

Ping/Bump.