2008 Nomination Contests Holding Steady (Gallup: Ron Paul Now Five Points Behind Romney)

Gallup Poll ^ | July 17, 2007

[Austin Willard Wright]

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani 30 33

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson 20 21

Arizona Senator John McCain 16 16

Former Massachusetts Senator Mitt Romney 8 8

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 7 --

Texas Congressman Ron Paul 3 3

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 2 2

[Austin Willard Wright]

Romney has spent carvans of money and he is now only five points ahead of Paul! Paul also leads Tancredo, Brownback, etc.

[Austin Willard Wright]

Romney needs to fire his fund-raising staff. Ron Paul Revolution ping.

[A_Tradition_Continues]

Paul! Paul also leads Tancredo, Brownback, etc.

Yes, but he still trails two non-candidates.

[BGHater]

Bad math or sarcasm?

[LIConFem]

Yeah, but they're all in the single digits. Hard to get really worked up about anyone -- even in a field this large -- who can't make at least 10% (according to this poll).

That said, anything can happen.

[Redcloak]

WOOHOO!! Huckabee's in the top 7!!

</sarcasm>

[BGHater]

My bad austin, I was thinking of Rudy G.

[Austin Willard Wright]

3 + 5 = 8

[Badeye]

‘Bad math or sarcasm?’

Neither, just desperation.

[TexasAg1996]

This poll has McCain at 16 points even though his campaign is imploding. No way that's right.

Oh, and Ron Paul seems to get about 3% in a lot of polls. Wonder how much of that is folks who believe the US planned and implemented 9/11.

[BGHater]

See # 7

[saganite]

More importantly, his numbers haven’t changed. He’s stuck on three percent, about what the Libertarian party draws in elections. He’s going nowhere fast.

[A_Tradition_Continues]

BTW...since when is Tancredo the “Former Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo”

[Austin Willard Wright]

Never mind. Given my declining memory, I could have easily made a math mistake!

[Austin Willard Wright]

The Libertarian party has never drawn three percent (or even close to that) in presidential elections. Moreover, this is the first national poll that shows Paul as high as three percent.

[saganite]

I think the Libertarian party draws maybe 2%. So, that being his base he’s appealing to a further 1% of the electorate. I suspect those are the anarchist wing of the libertarian movement.

Aren’t the two numbers posted for each candidate in this poll his current support measured against a previous poll?

[kevkrom]

Moreover, this is the first national poll that shows Paul as high as three percent.

With a margin of error of 3% -- granted, the extremes of the MOE are generally seen more on a 50/50 proposition, but even so, Paul's total is barely higher than statistical noise.

[kevkrom]

Aren’t the two numbers posted for each candidate in this poll his current support measured against a previous poll?

Not in this case -- the first number is with Gingrich in the mix, the second number is without Gingrich.

[Austin Willard Wright]

I think the Libertarian party draws maybe 2%

No....the best showing of the LP was in in 1980 when Ed Clark drew precisely 1 percent.

[saganite]

Libertarians run better in some districts. I have a colleague who drew 2% in a California district in a race for Congress and his job virtually prevented him from campaigning.

In any case, Ron Paul’s campaign is hopeless and I frankly can’t see anyone getting excited over his chances. Don Quixote and all that.