First off, McCain was never ‘the front runner’.
Second, Guiliani was in fact ‘the front runner’ and given the history of those that were designated as such, his odds grow slimmer with each passing day. The bottom line remains the same with Rudy, his anti gun, pro abortion, pro gay rights stances make it impossible for him to gain the nomination as President. Vice President - maybe. But not the top of the ticket.
I suspect this race is now all about Fred Thompson v Mitt Romney. Thompson’s done a good job of lowering expectations from just a month ago, which was deftly done in my opinion. Now we will see when he gets around to announcing formally what happens. Again, in my opinion, his strategy to ignore this ‘new conventional wisdom’ about starting the campaign a year early seems to be paying off big time. He’ll pick up the McCain financial supporters, and the Rudy supporters that aren’t in reality moderate Democrats when he comes out for the job.
Duncan Hunter....a long shot for VP is his fate. Its not due to his positions, many of which I fully support. He just doesn’t give a ‘spark’ to anyone that isn’t already in his corner.
On the democrats side....they’ve got a major problem. Nobody likes Hillary Clinton beyond the brain dead straight ticket types in the Dem party. The far left is furious with her, the Dem old boy/girl network despises her and her husband and they understand she can’t overcome the historical high negative number she brings to the table. Toss onto that heap the history of seated Senators running, and a general feeling that we’ve had enough of political dynasties, be it the Bush’s or the Clinton’s, and she has no chance of winning a general election, and I still don’t think she’ll actually show up for the primaries. She seems annoyed she even has to go through the process....(chuckle)
We’ll see. Right now, I like the GOP’s odds in the race for the Whitehouse and regaining the Senate. The House...doubt that will result in more than a possible small gain of seats.
What are you basing your Senate/House numbers on? Seems to me, getting the house back is not very difficult and getting the senate back would take a miracle. What are you seeing that I’m not?
Good analysis. I think your point is right on about political dynasties...and I think that is a point against Romney, as well. His dad was governor and ran for president, his mom ran for the senate, his brother ran for Michigan attorney general, and Mitt himself ran for the senate before winning the governorship and now running for president. He has had success in the private sector, which helps — but it’s still a problem IMO.