Oil experts see supply crisis in five years

telegraph ^ | 10/07/2007 | By David Litterick in Chicago

[Flavius]

The International Energy Agency has predicted a supply crunch in the world's oil markets that could send prices soaring and place a severe dent in global growth.

In a report that painted a bleak outlook for the global economy, the IEA said spare capacity in oil production would dry up over the next five years, even as demand continues to jump significantly.

"Oil and gas price pressures look set to remain in the coming years," the report said. "Slower-than-expected GDP growth may provide a breathing space, but it is abundantly clear that if the path of demand does not change on its own, it may well be driven to change by higher prices."

[andrew1957]

Well, I guess we better start drilling off the California and East coasts, and around the Florida panhandle.
Oh wait... we aren’t allowed to do that..

[DeweyCA]

If the US federal government gave a bigger percentage of the tax proceeds to those states, the state legislatures might change their minds about drilling. California especially will be financially strapped in the coming years. If they got a bigger slice of the oil tax revenues, the Dems would be tempted to go for it. It would upset the environmentalists, but the Dems love the money and they would probably find a way of buying off the enviro nuts.

[The Great RJ]

The environmentalist loons would rather see us go back to a 19th century standard of living than allow drilling that might slightly disturb caribou migrations or the sex life of a few seals.

[mysterio]

Energy independence now. It should be our nation’s top issue.

[Mike Darancette]

If we run out of oil Global Warming is solved.

[Flavius]

there is so much oil available at 100.00 it will be a glut

[ken21]

the ol’ liberal canard

of blaming the “big oil co’s”

is over.

now, the majority of oil worldwide is controlled not by capialists, but

by governments.

and, islamicist, socialist or communist governments.

[Flavius]

a socialists dream

[ckilmer]

The solution is to burn salt water

[george76]

Oil demand will grow at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent during the next five years, up from a previous estimate of 2 per cent, to reach 95.8m barrels a day in 2012.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2d97d75a-2e0c-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac.html

[george76]

the report argued that oil demand was likely to soar to 95.8m barrels a day in 2012 from 81.6m barrels this year.

.

[SoldierDad]

Didn’t I read about this 20 years ago?

[thackney]

Oil demand will grow at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent during the next five years

That growth rate is going to be curtailed by rising prices. Look at what has happened to China's growth rate in oil consumption already. The same agency making the world prediction above had to correct last year's prediction for China to be without growth this year.

TFN NEWS BRIEFING: Oil and utilities highlights
http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=46059229768000

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects China's oil demand this year to remain flat compared to its previous forecast at 7.59 mln barrels per day

[george76]

Do you believe that 85 million barrels a day is the maximum world wide production number for the fore seeable future ?

[Marine_Uncle]

Thanks for the ping.

[thackney]

Do you believe that 85 million barrels a day is the maximum world wide production number for the fore seeable future ?

No.

[thackney]

I should have shared, I'm not alone in believing that 85 MMBPD is a ceiling. Others (but not all) who do those projections for a living see continueing growth. Most likely with continueing price increases. But $60 and up oil pays for a lot of enhanced oil recovery from existing oil fields already in production.

High prices will also continue to drive non-traditional production of petroleum sources.

[thackney]

in believing that 85 MMBPD is NOT a ceiling.