Posted on 07/09/2007 1:32:26 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Rudy Giuliani never misses an opportunity to remind people about his track record in fighting crime as mayor of New York City from 1994 to 2001.
"I began with the city that was the crime capital of America," Giuliani, now a candidate for president, recently told Fox's Chris Wallace. "When I left, it was the safest large city in America. I reduced homicides by 67 percent. I reduced overall crime by 57 percent."
While crime did fall dramatically in New York during Giuliani's tenure, a broad range of scientific research has emerged in recent years to show the mayor deserves only a fraction of the credit that he claims. The most compelling information has come from an economist in Fairfax, Va., who has argued in a series of little-noticed papers that the "New York miracle" was caused by local and federal efforts decades earlier to reduce exposure to lead poisoning.
The theory offered by the economist, Rick Nevin, is that lead poisoning accounts for much of the variation in violent crime in the United States. It offers a unifying new neurochemical explanation for fluctuations in the crime rate and is based on studies linking exposure to lead in children with violent behavior later in their lives.
What makes Nevin's work persuasive is that he has shown an identical, decades-long association between lead poisoning and crime rates in nine countries.
"It is stunning how strong the association is," Nevin said in an interview. "Sixty-five to 90 percent or more of the substantial variation in violent crime in all these countries was explained by lead." Through much of the 20th century, lead in U.S. paint and gasoline fumes poisoned toddlers as they put contaminated hands in their mouths. The consequences on crime, Nevin found, occurred when poisoning victims became adolescents. Nevin does not say lead is the only factor behind crime, but he says it's the biggest.
Giuliani's presidential campaign declined to address Nevin's contention that the mayor merely was at the right place at the right time. But William Bratton, who served as Giuliani's police commissioner and initiated many of the policing techniques credited with reducing the crime rate, dismissed Nevin's theory as absurd. Bratton and Giuliani instituted harsh measures against quality-of-life offenses, based on the "broken windows" theory of addressing minor offenses to head off more serious crimes.
Other theories
Many other theories have emerged to explain the crime decline. In the 2005 book Freakonomics, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner said the legalization of abortion in 1973 had eliminated "unwanted babies" who would have become violent criminals. Other experts credited lengthy prison terms for violent offenders, or demographic changes, socioeconomic factors, and the rise and fall of drug epidemics.
Most of the theories have been long on intuition and short on evidence. Nevin's data not only explain the decline in crime in the 1990s, but the rise in crime in the 1980s, and other fluctuations going back a century. His data from multiple countries, which have different abortion rates, police strategies, demographics and economic conditions, show lead is the only explanation that can account for international trends.
Because the countries phased out lead at different points, they provide a rigorous test: In each instance, the violent crime rate tracks lead poisoning levels two decades earlier.
"It is startling how much mileage has been given to the theory that abortion in the early 1970s was responsible for the decline in crime" in the 1990s, Nevin said. "But they legalized abortion in Britain and the violent crime in Britain soared in the 1990s. The difference is our gasoline lead levels peaked in the early '70s and started falling in the late '70s, and fell very sharply through the early 1980s and was virtually eliminated by 1986 or '87.
"In Britain and most of Europe, they did not have meaningful constraints (on leaded gasoline) until the mid-1980s and even early 1990s," he added. "This is the reason you are seeing the crime rate soar in Mexico and Latin America, but (it) has fallen in the United States."
Lead levels plummeted in New York in the early 1970s, driven by federal policies to eliminate lead from gasoline and local policies to reduce lead emissions from municipal incinerators. Between 1970 and 1974, the number of New York children heavily poisoned by lead fell by more than 80 percent, according to data from the New York City Department of Health.
Lead levels in New York have continued to fall. One analysis in the late 1990s found that children in New York had lower lead exposure than children in many other big U.S. cities, possibly because of a 1960 policy to replace old windows. That policy, meant to reduce deaths from falls, had an unforeseen benefit - old windows are a continuing source of lead poisoning, said Dave Jacobs of the National Center for Healthy Housing.
The effect was dramatic. In 1990, 31 New Yorkers out of every 100,000 were murdered. In 2004, the rate was 7 per 100,000 - lower than most big cities. The lead theory also explains why crime fell broadly across the United States in the 1990s, not just in New York.
Century-long analysis
The centerpiece of Nevin's research is a century-long analysis of crime rates and lead poisoning levels: The United States has had two spikes of lead poisoning, one at the turn of the 20th century, linked to lead in household paint, and after World War II, when the use of leaded gasoline increased sharply.
Both times, the violent crime rate went up and down in concert - with the violent crime peaks coming two decades after the lead poisoning peaks.
Other evidence has accumulated in recent years that lead is a neurotoxin that causes impulsivity and aggression, but these studies have also drawn little attention. In 2001, sociologist Paul Stretesky and criminologist Michael Lynch showed that U.S. counties with high lead levels had four times the murder rate of counties with low lead levels, after controlling for multiple socioeconomic factors.
In 2002, Herbert Needleman, a psychiatrist at the University of Pittsburgh, compared lead levels of 194 adolescents arrested in Pittsburgh with lead levels of 146 high school adolescents: The arrested youths had lead levels that were four times higher.
"Impulsivity means you ignore the consequences of what you do," said Needleman, one of the country's foremost experts on lead poisoning, explaining why Nevin's theory is plausible. Lead decreases the ability to tell yourself, "If I do this, I will go to jail."
Nevin's work has been published mainly in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research.
I don’t care for Rudy, but this story is totally corny.
There may be a connection with lead to criminal behavior in some instances, but trying to tie this decrease to lead reduction instead of Rudy, shows it is purely political.
Now you are lying your ass off.
Giuliani was one of the best mayors this city ever had. He was directly responsible for the eladership responsible for incredible reductions in crime.
Nope, I am not being a liar. Giuliani did not get the ball rolling. Giuliani hacks who can’t read the statistics and use them inmproperly, without relative comparisons are the liars.
Fools blinded by ignorance is the best way to describe those that support that POS who sat in the mayors seat, stealing honest citizens constitutional rights while giving them to illegals and gays. Sickening anyone who calls them a conservative could support that POS scumbag.
violence is proably directly related to many things, for example, I’ll bet the decline in violence during Rudy’s years was associated with more people gaining weight.
LOL!
Look at the crime stats and you’ll see that crime went down under dinkins, before giuliani became mayor. Nice try, though.
Giuliani took office in 1994. there were 2016 murders that year. Murder peaked in 1990 with 2605, in 1993 there were 2,420. that’s a prety minor drop and obviously a huge problem if over 2000 people are being killed each year.
By 1998 that number was down to 924. Now that is a major reduction. Across the board those numbers continued to drop in decreases. by 2000, the numbers were still dropping even as other cities were seeing an increase in crime again.
Dinkins did nothing to reduce crime, in fact his lackadaisical attitude on policing led to a general feeling that the entire city was rotting for the core. The police hated Dinkins. Google Crown Height riots, thats how dinkins handles crime.
Anyone who makes the claim Dinkins helped reduce crime in the city is smoking crack.
Are you ignorant, or just a liar. Look at the stats. I don't like Dinkins, he was probably NYC's nadir, and think Rudy did a hell of a lot better job than anyone previous, but I won't use stats to lie like you are doing.
“Bratton and Giuliani instituted harsh measures against quality-of-life offenses, based on the “broken windows” theory of addressing minor offenses to head off more serious crimes.”
Correct. This long-winded article detracts from the truth of what was happening on the streets: giving the police authority to deal with lawbreakers, and re-programming people to comply with the tenets of law and order.
LOL
Make like you name and stick you head in the sand.
LOL. I take it you can’t handle the truth? Clues for sale upthread, look at the rime stats I posted earlier.
You aren’t very smart, are you? That must really suck to be either so delusional or ignorant to refuse to accept fact.
The stats posted above by the naysayer show Giuliani was in charge during a 50% reduction in the murder rate. Not 5%, not 10%, but a 50% reduction.
The Rudy haters are as delusional as the moonbats are with their own version of BDS. They have Rudy Derangement Syndrome.
Oh Clam I’m sure you are the only smart one around. You are a jerk.
LOL, no, most FReepers appear to be intelligent, as they nearly monolithically avoid the homo-loving Mr. Abortion gun grabber pro-illegal scumball from NYC.
You may think I am a jerk, but coming from someone of your mental capacity, that’s not much of an insult.
Here’s something you desparately need: http://tutoring.sylvanlearning.com/ That may help you improve your severely dreadful reading comprehension skills.
One thing that really really bothers me about Rudy, that I only suspect but none the less it’s a feeling I can’t shake is that I believe his pro stand on abortion was a stand of convience==to get elected.
John R. Lott offered a rebuttal in his book, Freedomnomics, on why crime fell in the 90’s. Lott’s explanations include the death penalty, better law enforcement, the right to bear arms. This book is a fast read and exceptionally well written. . .
The death penalty? The right to bear arms?
I dont think so.
Try giving the police in the hood the authority to make arrests of criminals, and keeping them in jail. Rudy reversed the Dinkins policies of feminizing the NYPD and catering to the lawbreakers.
Lack of pirates causes global warming!
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