If he loses Iowa he’s toast.
Indeed, 2008 may be the last election cycle in which much weight and attention is given to either of them.
Neither state is politcally/demographically what it once was, particularly New Hampshire, which will be a "full blue" state in 20-25 more years. Not quite as bad as Vermont, of course, but probably more resembling Maine just to the northeast. Voter pollution from the Gay state!
- John