Posted on 07/03/2007 8:05:33 AM PDT by Valin
Giuliani gets a standing ovation at Pat Robertson's university.
It was June 26, and Rudy Giuliani was surprised. This was his first visit to Regent University in Virginia Beach, Virginia, the headquarters of televangelist and onetime GOP presidential candidate Pat Robertson's media and education efforts. The Regent campus was much larger than Giuliani had expected.
The former New York City mayor was at Regent to participate in the school's executive leadership speaking series. For the pro-choice Giuliani, the speech at Regent demonstrated his willingness to campaign anywhere, including before religious conservatives, for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. Robertson, the host of the 700 Club, introduced Giuliani to the paying audience of more than 600 people. The two embraced. "I'm not going to give a political speech," Giuliani said. The crowd laughed. Instead Giuliani delivered his speech on leadership.
Giuliani likes lists. In addition to his "12 Commitments to the American People," a set of policy goals he outlined a few weeks ago, the mayor has "Six Principles of Leadership": knowing what you believe, optimism, courage, relentless preparation, teamwork, and communication. At Regent, Giuliani discussed each. Then he brought up his presidential campaign. "Don't expect that you'll agree with me on everything, because that would be unrealistic," Giuliani said. "But if you agree with me on enough things, and you think I have the ability to lead, then maybe I'm the person you'd support."
He wasn't finished. "That's the way I've kind of been approaching this campaign," Giuliani went on. "It's not about one issue. It's about many issues. If it is about one issue, there is one issue that dominates our present; it's not an issue of our making. And that's why I call it the terrorists' war on us. The one issue that dominates is the fact that Islamic terrorists are fighting to kill us. They've succeeded in doing it, and they want to do it again. . . . If this is a one-issue election, it's about remaining on offense against terrorists." Giuliani received a standing ovation.
Then he took questions from the audience. Giuliani's first interlocutor asked how the mayor incorporates his Judeo-Christian beliefs into his governing style. Other questions dealt with immigration and the war on terror. The social issues hardly came up. That wasn't the case when Giuliani spoke to the press afterwards, however. The first question came from a correspondent for the lefty online magazine Salon. It was about abortion.
And so it goes. The press still hasn't figured out Giuliani, who continues to lead in the Real Clear Politics average of national GOP presidential polls and in polls taken in many primary states. The press and large parts of the political establishment assume that Giuliani's pro-choice position and support for stem cell research and gay rights disqualify him for the Republican nomination. According to this line of thinking, most GOP voters are still unaware of his positions on these issues, and when they find out, they'll go elsewhere.
The reality is more complicated. Religious and social conservatives greet Giuliani warmly when he appears before them. "In my opinion, it was a smash appearance and people were very high on Rudy and what he had to say," Robertson said in a televised interview after the Regent speech. "He did a great job." Giuliani's May 11 speech at Houston Baptist College, in which he straightforwardly declared himself pro-choice, received a standing ovation--a fact the Washington Post left unmentioned. When Giuliani takes questions from conservative audiences, abortion rarely comes up. A campaign spokesman estimates that only one out of every 15 questions posed to Hizzoner deals with a social issue.
Still, Giuliani wants to appeal to social issues voters. He's supported social conservatives in the past, campaigning in 2006 for Sen. Rick Santorum and former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed (both lost). He does not want to antagonize the so-called values voters. He's pledged to reduce the number of abortions and appoint strict constructionists to the bench, and says he won't attempt to change the GOP's pro-life platform.
There are three prongs to Giuliani's social conservative strategy. The first is to stress the war on terror, including the war in Iraq. Support for the war on terror is something Giuliani shares with social conservatives. That's why he often says that the Democrats are "in denial" about the terrorist threat. It's why keeping America "on offense" against jihadism is his first commitment.
Second, Giuliani emphasizes his viability in a general election. Last week's Gallup poll found that Giuliani, at 57 percent, had the highest favorability rating of any candidate in either party. On the stump, Giuliani says he's the only GOP candidate who could put states like California, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey in the Republican column. He stresses the differences between Republicans and Democrats and lambastes Hillary Clinton, suggesting what a Democratic president might do. "Giuliani's support is a function of people who are terror stricken by the concept of President Hillary Clinton," says Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission. Land doesn't endorse candidates, but has said he would not vote for Giuliani.
The third prong in Giuliani's strategy is what you might call "divide and conquer." Social conservatives may be the single largest group in the Republican coalition, but they do not constitute a majority. Last week GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio released a study of the Republican electorate. He says the party is composed of seven groups: Dennis Miller Republicans, Government-Knows-Best Republicans, Moralists, Bush Hawks, Fortress America Republicans, Heartland Republicans, and Free Marketers. For now, Giuliani leads among all groups. He draws his strongest support from Free Marketers, Heartland Republicans, and Government-Knows-Best Republicans.
And here's where things get interesting. One third of Moralists told Fabrizio they'd look past a candidate's position on abortion if they agreed with him on other issues. And a sizable chunk of Moralists say they will base their vote next year on a candidate's leadership qualities. So, to win the Republican nomination, Giuliani doesn't need the support of all the Moralists. He just needs enough support from them that, when combined with his leads among other GOP voting blocs, he beats the competition. The way to get this support is to find issues on which Giuliani and the Moralists align, says Fabrizio. Examples besides the war on terror include the fight against pornography, anti-drug campaigns, school uniforms, even opposition to racial preferences. (Giuliani was the first GOP presidential candidate to release a statement praising the Supreme Court's end-of-term race preferences decision.) At the moment, all the other Republican candidates are competing for the Moralist vote, slicing it a dozen different ways. Giuliani pulls just enough to remain in the lead. Divide and conquer.
Two things imperil this strategy. First, Giuliani's campaign organization still has some serious flaws. For example, after his address at Regent, Giuliani traveled to Rockville, Maryland, for a speech to the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington. The mayor arrived an hour late--and was missing his speech. "So I'm going to do it all from my head," he said. The audience laughed and the speech went well, but it was an embarrassment nonetheless. To fix these flaws, Giuliani has introduced CompStat--his government accountability program--to parts of his own campaign.
The greater threat to Giuliani is the emergence of a GOP candidate who is able to unify all groups in the Republican coalition. This hasn't happened yet, but we're still a long way away from the Iowa caucuses. "Once a social conservative becomes a viable candidate," predicts Richard Land, "you are going to see social conservatives deserting Giuliani in droves." That candidate's name? "Fred Thompson."
Ping
Oh for Petes sake. Not again.
WOW! You guys sure are fast readers.
Great!
“Michael Bloomberg is not only a better mayor of New York than Rudy Giuliani - he’d make a better President, too.
That’s the result of a Daily News poll released today that asked the voters who know best - New Yorkers - which man belongs in the White House.
City voters overwhelmingly chose Mayor Mike over America’s Mayor as their pick for President, 46% to 29%.”
The day of this at Regent was June 26th. We already heard all about it. Hence, the remarks that were made. Its a recycled.
LOL, very funny
Now this is interesting:
“The greater threat to Giuliani is the emergence of a GOP candidate who is able to unify all groups in the Republican coalition. This hasn’t happened yet, but we’re still a long way away from the Iowa caucuses. “Once a social conservative becomes a viable candidate,” predicts Richard Land, “you are going to see social conservatives deserting Giuliani in droves.” That candidate’s name? “Fred Thompson.””
Indeed, “Moralists” may not make up the whole of the Republican party, but we do count for over half, it should be fun to watch Rudy deal with Fred’s candidacy now that McCAin is fading months before a vote is cast.
Rudy’s record is crystal clear on most issues, and I am not sure if Rudy putting those states on the table is worth hollowing out the Republican Party to become Democrat Lite is worth it.
They gave him a standing ovation because they were being nice to him. He used the same trite message he has given before about “sometimes I don’t even agree with myself!” And this must be the 5th or 6th time to be posted, since it happened on June 26th, a full week ago.
I thought all you guys all joined some other website where you could boost your libertarian libertine without making the rest of us sick.
FReepers have exposed Rooty Toot for what he is -— a phony Republican and a fraud on conservative issues. He will not be the GOP nominee.
You guys?
I mean you and your fellow Rudybots.
My a “Rudybot”? Site your source. I just want to win. the idea of ANY of the democrats sitting in the oval office fills me with dread.
Does the paper cater to Democrats/Socialists or Republicans?
You forgot to tell us that Rudy is the only one on earth who can defeat Horrible Hillary and thus save the hapless GOP country. Otherwise, you've got the Rudybot line down.
Don’t know if he is or not. That’s why we have elections.. I do think he’s mean enough to tke on the leftest smear machine and give as good as he gets. Make no mistake this election is going to make 2000/2004 look like a sunday school picnic and it’s going to take someone who is meaner than a junk yard dog to win.
Aren’t we all somebody’s bots?
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