Let me add on wild card that I overlooked - the stability of Iran's current leadership. Imanutjob is grossly unpopular and there are indications that part of his rhetoric is to pick a fight, forcing Iranians to unite behind him. IF he feels that he is losing power, the easiest thing to do would be to start a war.
I agree and I’ll add on that he has been trying his darndest to start a war, but no one is willing to accomodate him, yet — officially.
We are already fighting iran, in my opinion, in Iraq.
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http://www.truthusa.com/IRAN.html