A wise old engineer from Project Safeguard once told me, “Simulation is like masturbation; the more you do it, the more you think it’s the real thing.”
This is also true with respect to the global warming crowd and their intellectual self-abuse.
To a large degree you’re right about simulations. However, unlike the global alarmists, DoD is going to do “continuous calibration with respect to current real-world information”. This is going to be an interesting project, but I suspect they’re going to find that they are many orders of magnitude from achieving real-time results.