Posted on 06/22/2007 5:59:27 AM PDT by jellybean
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Where to find Fred on the internet:
From The Corner http://corner.nationalreview.com/
Late-Start Disadvantages Be Damned? [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Heads to Tennessee next week, then South Carolina, then New Hampshire (his first trip there as a potential presidential candidate).
I was in D.C. earlier this week, making some conservative rounds, and there really is Fred fever in the air — especially among some social conservatives, based on a very unscientific survey. Even a lot of those who are firmly in trust-but-verify mode are intrigued and excited by the prospect. Yesterday’s CAIR commentary I think is a good example of what it’s about — he’s confident enough to take on who needs to be taken on and calls it as he sees it. (One blogger’s reax: “The fact that Fred Thompson understands CAIR and questions its comings and goings is enough for me, thank you.”) If he does this on the trail, as a candidate, he could prove to be unstoppable in the primaries.
And we know he’s a better performer than Hillary.
06/22 06:59 AM
The Daily FRead is here!
Thank you for posting this. :)
| State | Rank | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1st 2nd [Guiliani] 2nd [Guiliani] |
Rasmussen USA Today/Gallup Harris |
6/19 6/19 6/14 |
| CA | 2nd (tie) [Guiliani, McCain] | Survey USA | 6/4 |
| FL | 2nd [Guiliani] 2nd [Guiliani] 1st |
Strategic Vision Insider Advanatge Datmar |
6/21 6/11 5/23 |
| IA | 2nd [Romney] 2nd [Romney] |
Mason Dixon Public Policy Polling |
6/19 6/4 |
| NC | 1st | Public Policy Polling | 6/7 |
| NH | 4th [Romney, McCain, Guiliani] 4th [Romney, McCain, Guiliani] 4th [Romney, McCain, Guiliani] |
University of New Hampshire Survey Center Mason Dixon Franklin Pierce College |
6/12 6/8 6/6 |
| NV | 3rd [Romney, Guiliani] 1st |
American Research Group Citizen Outreach/Battle Born News |
6/21 6/19 |
| SC | 1st 1st |
Mason Dixon Public Policy Polling |
6/17 6/4 |
| WA | 3rd [Guiliani, McCain] | Survey USA | 5/3 |
Thanks for doing this ... BTW, I note there appears to be someone missing from the “top tier”. Must be down on the border.
What if Iowa and New Hampshire both had parties, and nobody came?With no offense to my friends in those two states, I'm compelled to report that some Republican presidential candidates are toying with the idea of skipping the historic first two contests in the race for the GOP nomination. Former Mass Gov. Mitt Romney has put to good use the early support - especially money - he's enjoyed from many among the Republican "old establishment," including plenty of longtime Bush supporters.
Romney has flooded Iowa with TV campaign commercials. He's also put together a strong organizational team on the ground there.
Partly in recognition of this, top Romney rivals Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain have now withdrawn from the nonbinding "straw poll" vote scheduled for later this summer in Ames, Iowa.
Both men's polling numbers have dropped in Iowa. Plus, the Bush White House has hired away Giuliani's top political coordinator in Iowa.
Then there's the matter of Fred Thompson. The latest polling in Iowa shows Romney leading, with Giuliani and Thompson tied for second place. Thompson's sudden spike in the polls has been meteoric, following his comparatively modest statement that he would establish a presidential exploratory committee, as they're called. He isn't officially a candidate yet, and he hasn't been actively campaigning in Iowa or New Hampshire. The strategic wild card for all of these candidates is Florida's decision to move up its primary to Jan. 29. In response, South Carolina likely will hold its primary earlier, too.
To candidates perhaps already boxed out by Romney's early money in Iowa and his name-ID advantage in New Hampshire it's getting tempting to shift their intense focus to Florida and South Carolina.
Complicating matters, Florida, the state with the primary that will crown an early front runner just prior to the mega-state "Super Tuesday," has just made its already expensive primary campaign even more so.
On June 15, the Florida Legislature placed on the Jan. 29 presidential primary ballot a high-stakes proposed state constitutional amendment that would radically alter the way homestead property taxes are assessed.
This likely will cause a jolt in voter turnout for the Republican presidential primary. That probably means that running an effective presidential primary campaign there will now be even more expensive than ever. Gary Reese explains the dynamics of the intriguing situation in Florida at www.southernpoliticalreport.com.
It's quickly becoming more and more apparent that an earlier-than-ever primary campaign season means earlier-than-ever efforts by serious candidates to adequately staff their campaigns, conduct polling and touch all the other bases required to have a shot at winning these critical states. Now it's become not just a question of strategy, but of resources to implement that strategy.
Some campaigns are quietly wondering whether it will be time and money well spent to trudge through Iowa and New Hampshire for months of speaking to small gatherings of caucus members or voters, when South Carolina and Florida may decide who is the viable candidate heading into Super Tuesday.
Some GOP campaign strategists noticed Romney's boast that he's winning Iowa and New Hampshire. They wonder whether they should concede those states to Romney and focus their own efforts on bigger states where they are more competitive. Such radical chance-taking rarely happens. It looks too much like throwing in the towel. John McCain, for example, is slipping in the polls. He can only bow out of Iowa and New Hampshire if, say, front runner Giuliani does it first.
Giuliani and Thompson both may have compelling reasons to let Romney celebrate hollow victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Witness the fact that Giuliani bagged the Iowa straw poll, and that he leads in the polls in both South Carolina and Florida. If one major candidate pulls out of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, others might follow.
Thompson especially seems capable of anything. If his poll numbers keep rising at the rate they have in recent weeks, he alone might be able to give Romney a genuine fight in Iowa. On the other hand, TV actor Thompson knows his Drama 101. He might just be the alpha hound dog that leads the pack in staking out South Carolina and Florida with a big, "Welcome South, y'all."
E-mail political columnist and former state Rep. Matt Towery at mtowery@insideradvantage.com.
You overlook or discount Newt. He will probably announce in September along with Fred. Newt is brilliant, very knowledgeable about history and politics, and he knows the ropes around Washington. He would be the perfect running mate for Fred.
I'm glad you like it. It's hard to gage how much interest there is for this format. I'll continue doing it as long as people are interested.
I’d rather see Newt as some sort of advisor or perhaps a Cabinet member.
Re: IA/NH
My thought is that these early states are either the beginning of Mitt’s campaign (breaking him out of 10% nationally).
Or, the End of Fred’s campaign (sewing up the nomination).
I got this in an Email this morning...
Dear Friends,
Just heard Great news!!! Senator Thompson will be making a swing through Nashville, Tuesday, June 26...then on to South Carolina and New Hampshire.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful for him to be greeted with a real Tennessee welcome so that anyone following his swing through these states will get the message (loud and clear) that this is a Favorite Son Tennesseans are proud to see moving toward the White House!
Details:
Lands at Mercury Air
Tuesday, June 26, 9:45 a.m.
Directions to Mercury Air — I 40E to Exit 216 B which is Donelson Pike, South (one exit past International Airport Exit). At first red light, turn right on Hangar Lane. Remain right. Mercury Air is on the right at 635 Hangar Lane. (Right, right, right...don’t you like the sound of that.)
Please, pass this along to anyone who might like to join us on Tuesday.
I also see him in that roll but he would be closer and have more stroke as VP plus he would be the head man in the Senate. He would also be a good President if the occasion arose.
"People have been asking about the next "Rally". It looks like this is it and Fred will be there.
Come greet Fred Thompson and show him we are proud to see him moving towards the White House!"
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
9:15AM
Mercury Air Center, Nashville International Airport
635 Hangar Lane, Nashville TN 37217
Donuts & Coffee provided, along with the chance to meet Fred!
Directions:
From I-40
take Donelson Pike, Exit 216, toward the Airport (south) Then right onto Hangar Lane - then stay to the right at the fork
Mercury Air Center, Nashville International Airport
635 Hangar Lane, Nashville TN 37217
I think Newt has already said he probably won’t be running. As I recall he said it’s now only about a 20% chance that he will.
Thanks for posting the chart. Looks like everyone is holding steady for now.
Straw poll, conducted via email. Not worth including in the summaries.
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